2013 MLB Predictions

Every year, my friends and I make a bet where we predict the upcoming MLB season. We pick each teams win total, the awards, the major stat category leaders, and of course, predict the playoffs. I like putting my projections out for everyone to see on the off hand chance that I actually end up being right, that way people will think I'm smarter than I really am. Let's hope that this year is more successful than last season. Another performance like that and I will come to be regarded as the anti-Peter Gammons.

Final Standings
 

AL East

1. Toronto

2. Tampa Bay

3. Boston

4. New York

5. Baltimore

As excited as everyone is about Tornoto's new additions, their existing players are what drive this prediction just as much as their imports from the NL East. Brett Lawrie is a special athlete who probably could have played any professional sport he wanted; Colby Rasmus, J.P. Arencibia, and Adam Lind have all-star talent; and last but not least, they still have the best hitter in baseball outside of Trout, Miggy, and BALCO's latest invention in Milwaukee.

AL Central

1. Detroit

2. Cleveland

3. Kansas City

4. Chicago

5. Minnesota

The regular season is just a formality for the Tigers at this point since they are light years ahead of the rest of their division. A lot of people will raise their eyebrows at my Cleveland pick but I think they will be sneaky good this year. Outfield defense is the new market inefficiency (which makes sense because preventing extra base hits is the key to winning baseball games). Most teams look for hitters in the corner outfield spots, but UMass alum and Indians GM Chris Antonetti has other ideas. He decided that their best offense is a good defense and will play three exceptional center fielders in Michael Bourn, Michael Brantley, and Drew Stubbs. If you can't find big boppers to play in left and right, why not send the greyhounds out there to track everything down that travels into the gaps? Mark my words, the Indians will dink and dunk their way to being 2013's version of the A's and Orioles.

AL West

1. Los Angeles

2. Texas

3. Seattle

4. Oakland

5. Houston

Oakland and Baltimore have run out of out of pixie dust. 2012 was memorable for both franchises, but 2013 will be known as the "regression to the mean" season. The AL West is a three tiered society. The Angels are the 1%. The Rangers, Mariners, and A's will beat up on each other en route to 78 to 86 wins. And Houston is sitting in the corner sniffing glue and eating paste. Sorry Astros fans, the new kids always get hazed, it's just a fact.

Wild Card Contenders

Tampa Bay, Boston, New York, Cleveland, Texas

NL East

1. Washington

2. Atlanta

3. Philadelphia

4. New York

5. Miami

The Nationals and Braves will slug it out all year like a prize fight between two heavyweights. These might be the two best teams in the National League and their win totals will reflect that because the rest of this division is putrid. Philly is the epitome of an 81 win team and should unload every veteran they have in order to restock their farm system. The Mets...well, Bobby Bonilla is the highest paid outfielder on their team; that's really all you need to know. The Marlins? They're a very solid AAA team. It wouldn't shock me if the Nats and Braves both won 100 games while beating up on this motley crew.

NL Central

1. Cincinnati

2. St. Louis

3. Pittsburgh

4. Milwaukee

5. Chicago

If Washington and Atlanta aren't the best teams in the NL, then the Reds are. Joey Votto is making a run at "greatest Canadian baseball player of all time." I can already hear everyone snickering but it's not as silly a debate as it seems. The top two guys on that list are big time players. One is in the Hall of Fame and the other is a five time all star and former MVP. It's a legitimate title (And if you're still not convinced, Jim Leyland said Larry Walker was "the best player I have ever seen." The same Jim Leyland who managed some dude named Barry Bonds in Pittsburgh). Bottom line, Votto is damn good. And so are the Reds. They will have this division locked up by the 1st week of September.

In our bet, we also have to pick the first manager fired (sadistic, I know, but still a fun challenge). Sorry Ron Roenicke, it's nothing personal. I just think that of all the possible candidates, the Brewers are the most likely to tank. Too much bad karma and too many potential veterans to unload at the deadline.

NL West

1. San Francisco

2. Arizona

3. Los Angeles

4. Colorado

5. San Diego

Let's just assume for a second that Hanley Ramirez and Carl Crawford were 100% healthy. The Dodgers season depends on Hanley's "skills" at shortstop, the most important defensive position other than catcher, a position he hasn't played in two years and was God-awful at in the first place (you don't need to understand advanced metrics to know that a bunch of negative numbers are a bad thing in this sport). Crawford was overrated even before his disastrous season and a half in Boston. Out of nine major league seasons, he has only posted an OBP* above .330 four times, his career walk rate is 5.3% (MLB average is around 9%, a big difference), and his offensive game is predicated almost entirely on his speed, usually the first thing to go as you age. I would be less concerned if his power numbers came from his bat, but his career line drive percentage is below league average and has been decreasing since 2008 (LD% = balls put in play that are line drives). Needless to say, I'm not buying what the Dodgers are selling this year. Arizona should nudge them out for 2nd with their incredibly underrated pitching staff. My beloved Rockies? Ugh, I don't want to talk about it. I'm betting under on their line of 72 wins. At least the lineup will be good...I think.

*Quick tangent about On Base Percentage: if I had to choose only one stat to evaluate players, this is it (well, wOBA, or weighted On Base Percentage is better since it removes the statistical noise from the equation, but I'll stick with regular OBP to make a point). Why? Simple.

(1 - OBP) = the % of plate appearances where a hitter makes an out. 

Whether you make an out or not is the most basic evaluation of your impact at the plate. I'm starting a movement to reclassify OBP under this simple equation and call it "Out Percentage." With a name like that, it would instantly be adopted by every color commentator with a master's degree in hyperbole...so, pretty much every color commentator out there. If you follow me on Twitter, you'll know that I do not have a high opinion of most of those who are supposed to be explaining the nuances of the game to us, especially Tim "0 > 1" McCarver.

Wild Card Contenders

Arizona, Atlanta, Saint Louis, Los Angeles 

Awards

National League
MVP: Joey Votto
Cy Young: Stephen Strasburg
Manager: Dusty Baker
Rookie: Zack Wheeler
Comeback: Ryan Howard

American League
MVP: Jose Bautista
Cy Young: Jered Weaver
Manager: Terry Francona
Rookie: Will Myers
Comeback: Jacoby Ellsbury

Major Stat Leaders

National League
Runs: Bryce Harper
Home Runs: Matt Kemp
RBI (I abhor this stat with every fiber of my being): Joey Votto
Batting Average: Carlos Gonzalez
Stolen Bases: Evereth Cabrera
Wins (eff this one too): Johnny Cueto
Saves: Aroldis Chapman
ERA: Stephen Strasburg
Strikeouts: Stephen Strasburg

American League
Runs: Mike Trout
Home Runs: Jose Bautista
RBI: Miguel Cabrera
Batting Average: Adrian Beltre
Stolen Bases: Michael Bourn
Wins: Jered Weaver
Saves: Chris Perez
ERA: Chris Sale
Strikeouts: Yu Darvish

Playoffs

National League
Wild Card: Atlanta over Arizona

Divisional Round: Cincinnati over Atlanta in 5
                             Washington over San Francisco in 5

Championship Series: Cincinnati over Washington in 6

American League
Wild Card: Tampa Bay over Cleveland

Divisional Round: Los Angeles over Tampa Bay in 4
                             Detroit over Toronto in 5

Championship Series: Los Angeles over Detroit in 7

World Series
Los Angeles Angels over Cincinnati Reds in 6
MVP: Albert Pujols