The Nuggets' record may not reflect the quality of their team. 23 of their first 32 games were on the road and they are a brand new team being constructed on the fly. 2011 wasn't that long ago, and the only player on this team who played with Carmelo is Ty Lawson. Denver has had many different identities as they've learned how to fit the pieces together.
Granted, it's a small sample. But, in games against what I would call the upper class of the NBA (the Heat, Pacers, Celtics, Spurs, Thunder, Clippers, Nuggets, and Grizzlies), the standings in the Western Conference currently stand as...
1. Nuggets 12-7
2. Spurs 10-6
3. Thunder 8-9
4. Clippers 8-9
5. Grizzlies 6-11
*updated after the Nuggets convincing road win last night in the Thunder Dome (Seriously? No one thought to name their arena the Thunder Dome? I feel like they would be 10% better at home if this was its name.)
The Nuggets have shown that they can hang with the best teams in the NBA. To be able to be competitive at the highest level while still figuring your game out shows an impressive amount of drive and talent.
"But the regular season is different! Everything slows down in the post season. You won't be able to fast break!"
Bullpucky! (not on the slowing down part, on the fast break part). The fast break is just the art of turning defense into offense as quickly as possible. You create fast breaks with your defense (and Ty Lawson, the one man fast break).
The Nuggets title chances center on one thing and one thing only.
IF they can play good defense in the post-season, they absolutely have a chance. Denver has a ton of athletes who switch on picks in order to create turnovers. This creates a bunch of chaos on the defensive end which usually leads to the most ruthlessly efficient fast break since the Show Time Lakers. Add in the fact that they would probably be 5 point favorites against the aliens from Space Jam in Denver, and they can throw a wrench into anyone's plans by going 1-1 in the first two games on the road.
Realistically speaking, this year's champion will be one of Miami, San Antonio, and Oklahoma City. But all three teams have holes that the Nuggets can exploit with their bigs, depth, and speed and athleticism, respectively.
- Miami can't rebound. And as the old adage goes "offense sells tickets, defense wins games, and rebounding wins championships."
- Oklahoma City can't score outside of Durant, Westbrook, and Serge Ibaka (every other game). This box score after their last game in Denver pretty much sums up the Thunder's offensive attack. If Durant and Westbrook aren't Superman and Superdouche every night, OKC is in trouble.
- San Antonio has no weakness other than father time and simple biology. Greg Popovich is the Warren Buffet of basketball (he's so overwhelmingly proven his system's greatness over an extended period of time that it seems silly to ever question him). However, as great as Pop is, he cannot heal Tony Parker's ankle, or Manu Ginobili's 700,000 bumps and bruises, or reverse Tim Duncan's odometer. Father time is undefeated, and when he claims a victim, sometimes it happens very quickly.

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