If you're looking for betting advice, this isn't the worst place to go. Dig back into my past Football Friday pieces and you will see a +.500 record in my NCAA bets (with teasers and parlays included) and a middling NFL performance. So let's get to the football teams that I like this year, along with my preseason bets.
*We're adding something new to Football Friday this year: money. I always list my bets from highest confidence to lowest, but this year we'll attach a real number to it and junk the confidence scale. It won't be my actual bet, but a more simple system used to convey how much I like certain games on a relative scale (for example, there was a Texas-Kansas State game a couple years back where KState was getting around 8 points at Texas. Texas was in a freefall and had just lost half their offense to injuries the previous week. Before seeing the line, I thought Texas should be getting somewhere around a touchdown, and maybe more since I thought the Wildcats were the better team in the first place. I placed the largest wager I have ever made on one game on Bill Snyder and company, but in the Football Friday post, it was sitting at the top just like any other bet).
My bankroll for the season will start at $100,000. Let's get to it.
NCAA
Miami Hurricanes
Mark 2013 as the year "The U" got its swag back. They're returning 10 starters to an offense that averaged 31.4 points per game last year, including Duke Johnson, a silky smooth running back with power and acceleration to boot. He currently stands at 16-1 to win the Heisman and I think his odds should be lower. Which leads me to the first bet of the season. Well, five bets. My approach to futures bets is to fire one shotgun blast and hope that one of the shells hits. Oh, and to play for upside since it's pointless to wait four months to receive a 3 to 1 payout.
Heisman Trophy Winner (Player, Position, School: $ risked/$ to win)
Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon: $50 to win $600
Tajh Boyd, QB, Clemson: $50 to win $700
Duke Johnson, RB, Miami: $50 to win $800
Taylor Martinez, QB, Nebraska: $50 to win $1,250
Brett Hundley, QB, UCLA: $150 to win $7,500
Tajh Boyd and Clemson are something of a gambling kryptonite for me the past few years, so of course I'm all in on Boyd this season. Mariota is just common sense; Oregon is going to be fine post-Kelly, I think. Taylor Martinez has been all around the Heisman race the past couple of years, I think there's good value there at 25-1. And Hundley? Well, we'll get to UCLA later. Trust me.
UCLA Bruins OVER 7 Wins
$815 to win $700
OK fine, we'll do it live! I mean...now. There are two reasons I like UCLA this season. One has to do with football instincts, and the other has to do with a more philosophical approach. Firstly, the football.
In 2012, UCLA managed to rank 31st in points per game, even though their offensive line was very young and they battled through injuries all year long. Losing Jonathan Franklin hurts, but losing Brett Hundley would affect this offense even more. Hundley's dual threat ability will make a running back out of someone, plus his offensive line has a year of experience under their belts, and are now backed up by a cavalcade of four star recruits in year two of the Jim Mora regime. And people, Jim Mora knows football. He might be the best coach in that conference (I can already hear David Shaw clearing his throat), and his team is stacked with young athletes.
As much attention as the offense received last year (for good reason), the defense was pretty damn good too. It says something about the style of play in this conference that four of the top five teams in sacks are from the PAC-12, but still, UCLA ranked 4th in the nation last year. That's significant. Throw in the fact that Oregon is in the middle of a big transition and Stanford always seems to be very good but not great, and the pieces are there for UCLA to make a run this season. But there is another competitive advantage that they can only control for 60 minutes every Saturday. Once the clock hits all zeroes, it's in the hands of the journalists and the masses: their storyline.
As much attention as the offense received last year (for good reason), the defense was pretty damn good too. It says something about the style of play in this conference that four of the top five teams in sacks are from the PAC-12, but still, UCLA ranked 4th in the nation last year. That's significant. Throw in the fact that Oregon is in the middle of a big transition and Stanford always seems to be very good but not great, and the pieces are there for UCLA to make a run this season. But there is another competitive advantage that they can only control for 60 minutes every Saturday. Once the clock hits all zeroes, it's in the hands of the journalists and the masses: their storyline.
There is a football vacuum in Los Angeles. USC's west coast prominence was usurped by Oregon, and now the Trojans look like just another good offense/bad defense team in a conference full of them. And yes, UCLA absolutely could be one of those good offense/bad defense teams too, but that's why they call them opinions (I happen to think their offense will be better than good). The schedule sets up perfectly for the Bruins too, with road dates at Nebraska (9/14), Stanford (10/19), and Oregon the very next week (10/26). If UCLA starts out hot and goes 7-0, all they have left is home games against Colorado (le sigh), Washington, and Arizona State, and one road game at Arizona (who they dropped 60 on last year) before their showdown with USC to end the season.
If they win those two games in October, it makes UCLA a top contender since they effectively knocked off the two biggest kids on the block in a conference that many see as #2 behind the SEC. Once they make their trek to the top of Mount PAC-12, it's a fairly easy descent into the PAC-12 title game.
Now let's assume a scenario where Alabama, Ohio State, and UCLA go undefeated (since most people seem to be penciling in a Tide-Buckeye title game). Bama obviously gets one spot, but let me ask you, which feels more exciting? Ohio State playing another SEC team in the title game or an undefeated team from Los Angeles against the defending champions? Voters already like to gravitate towards the story that nobody saw coming, especially if they have big wins they can point towards.
Ohio State's two biggest wins in an undefeated season are on the road at Michigan and Northwestern (that or a home game against Wisconsin or Penn State, seriously, check out their schedule, it had to be built by Bill Snyder, plus the B1G sucks), but they don't have the same "oomph" as winning at Oregon and Stanford in back to back weeks. This is where I think UCLA's competitive advantage kicks in (and the PAC-12's). People want to see big time football in LA, even more so if it's entertaining. With Brett Hundley putting up points and UCLA's D pinning their ears back with big leads, the Bruins could easily emerge as this season's fan favorites.
Ohio State's two biggest wins in an undefeated season are on the road at Michigan and Northwestern (that or a home game against Wisconsin or Penn State, seriously, check out their schedule, it had to be built by Bill Snyder, plus the B1G sucks), but they don't have the same "oomph" as winning at Oregon and Stanford in back to back weeks. This is where I think UCLA's competitive advantage kicks in (and the PAC-12's). People want to see big time football in LA, even more so if it's entertaining. With Brett Hundley putting up points and UCLA's D pinning their ears back with big leads, the Bruins could easily emerge as this season's fan favorites.
Get used to seeing this team in this space. That's why I put the most money on Hundley to win the Heisman, why I'm making over 7 wins my STONE COLD LOCK OF THE CENTURY...of the week, and why I made this next bet.
National Championship Winner
UCLA: $125 to win $10,000
Florida: $50 to win $2,000
Clemson: $50 to win $1,100
Stanford: $50 to win $1,000
Georgia: $50 to win $600
If you're laughing because "that jackass didn't bet Alabama to win the title," remember that whole "it's not worth setting your money aside for four months just to get a 300% return" thing? Yeah, that's an Alabama title bet. You want to find value plays just in case this season ends up being wacky (remember...18-22 year olds decide our fate).
An SEC team will get into the title game (AKA Alabama or whatever 0 or 1 loss team beats Alabama). That's all I'm certain of this year. That means there is a value play somewhere in this conference, and I'm jumping on board with the Gators first; Jeff Driskel is a legitimate quarterback and Florida's defense is ferocious. Stanford is the play simply because there is no value in Oregon at 8-1, but there is in the PAC-12. Georgia, well, they're on deck if anything happens to Alabama. Plus I've always been a fan of Aaron Murray. He might be the best play-action QB in the nation. And UCLA at 80-1, what!?!?!?!
An SEC team will get into the title game (AKA Alabama or whatever 0 or 1 loss team beats Alabama). That's all I'm certain of this year. That means there is a value play somewhere in this conference, and I'm jumping on board with the Gators first; Jeff Driskel is a legitimate quarterback and Florida's defense is ferocious. Stanford is the play simply because there is no value in Oregon at 8-1, but there is in the PAC-12. Georgia, well, they're on deck if anything happens to Alabama. Plus I've always been a fan of Aaron Murray. He might be the best play-action QB in the nation. And UCLA at 80-1, what!?!?!?!
PAC-12 Championship Game Winner
UCLA: $50 to win $750
Just one more UCLA bet for good measure. This is a bit of a hedge just in case I'm mostly right but not right enough about UCLA. There are other teams I like, I swear. Like this next one.
Georgia OVER 9.5 Wins
$125 to win $100
I count 7 "gimme's" on UGA's schedule this year. That leaves them with 3 wins to bang the over. Here are the games I did not automatically circle for Georgia.
8/31 @ Clemson
9/7 vs South Carolina
9/28 vs LSU
11/02 tailgate heaven vs/@ Florida
11/30 @ Georgia Tech
Can the Bulldogs go 3-2 in this stretch without slipping up elsewhere? Absofrigginloutely.
Texas
I'm not betting their win total because there's no value on 9.5 at -145, but I like them as a weekly play this year. I'm convinced that Texas skimps on head coaches by just making copies of a base model. Mack Brown and Rick Barnes are the same person; they are one of the best in their respective fields at getting talent in their locker room, and completely clueless as to how to use it once they are in between the lines. Texas' defense is one of the most talented and underachieving units in the country. I think that changes this season and Texas emerges as the power in the Big 12. For everyone who derides pretty much every QB on their roster (for legitimate reasons), Texas still finished 22nd in yards per play last year. The Big 12 is nutty, but that isn't nothing. Texas makes a leap this season, book it.
Big 12 Champion
Texas: $0 to win $0
+250 odds aren't enough value to bet them. Needless to say, I'll be rooting for them to lose at least one of their non conference games. If this line drops beneath +500, jump on it. This is the best team in a weak conference. Speaking of the Big 12 and "weak."
Colorado
OK, so before you laugh and call me a homer, I'm not saying I think they are going to win many football games this year. I do, however, believe they are going to cover a lot of spreads. This has been one of the worst teams in all of college football the past few seasons, and the point spreads adjusted accordingly (last year, CU and my alma mater UMass, were arguably the two worst teams in all of college football given their week in and week out lines; and the odds are high that I'm the only person on Earth who cares about that last sentence).
Well, I don't think CU is going to be soul-crushingly awful this year. Just plucky and entertainingly awful. Paul Richardson (one of the USC refugees) is a legit Tavon Austin-esque threat, and playing in Boulder is always difficult, especially in a conference that is used to the warmth of the Pacific, not 5,500 feet and howling wind. I think you'll see this team cover a lot of big spreads this season; I'm betting them if they're getting 21 or more, especially at home.
Well, I don't think CU is going to be soul-crushingly awful this year. Just plucky and entertainingly awful. Paul Richardson (one of the USC refugees) is a legit Tavon Austin-esque threat, and playing in Boulder is always difficult, especially in a conference that is used to the warmth of the Pacific, not 5,500 feet and howling wind. I think you'll see this team cover a lot of big spreads this season; I'm betting them if they're getting 21 or more, especially at home.
Texas A&M UNDER 9.5 Wins
$100 to win $140
Speaking of 21+, let's talk about our defending Heisman Trophy winner and author of the most mind-blowing season anyone has seen at quarterback since Vince Young. Funny thing, Johnny Football's 21st birthday is the day before the SEC Championship (go ahead, Google it, I'll wait), and that's part of why they're here. At the beginning of this column, I lied. This isn't about bets and teams I like, it's about bets and teams I feel strongly about (think of it like the WWE, it doesn't matter if you're getting booed, cheered, or otherwise, just so long as you're getting something from the crowd). And I feel strongly about shorting Texas A&M stock this year.
The Aggies and the San Fancisco 49ers are similar in that they exploded on to the scene with super talented quarterbacks playing in new schemes, and their offense's athleticism and execution allowed them to run around the field untouched while their opponents tried to figure out what the hell was going on. Well, we had an entire offseason to digest a season's worth of tape, and the new car smell of the A&M offense is gone. I'm certain that the Aggies will introduce new concepts and wrinkles this season, but the scheme isn't unknown anymore. Do you think the rest of the SEC took last year's A&M dominance very well? I sure don't.
This year, we get to see their response, and I think it will be mean and nasty. I think Manziel gets beat up a lot. The Aggies rely on him as much as any college football team has relied on one player since Cam Newton was at Auburn, and he's not that big of a guy to begin with. Johnny Football will take some shots this year (hah :-D), and I think this offense will slow way down. I repeat, short Texas A&M. They're overvalued.
This year, we get to see their response, and I think it will be mean and nasty. I think Manziel gets beat up a lot. The Aggies rely on him as much as any college football team has relied on one player since Cam Newton was at Auburn, and he's not that big of a guy to begin with. Johnny Football will take some shots this year (hah :-D), and I think this offense will slow way down. I repeat, short Texas A&M. They're overvalued.
Northwestern OVER 7.5 Wins
$150 to win $150
This bet is simple, can Northwestern win at least one of these four games?
10/5 vs Ohio State
10/12 @ Wisconsin
11/2 @ Nebraska
11/16 vs Michigan
They should be favored or close to even in every one of their other games than those four. I think Northwestern is for real (as much as a Big 10 sleeper can be "for real") and will make some noise in this weak conference (Ohio State at #2 is LOLable, they should be ranked lower right now, but this is why polls are stupid and trusting humans to arbitrarily associate teams with numbers is as good of an idea as it sounds). Northwestern will go better than 1-3 in these four games. Mark it down.
MAC Championship Game Winner
UMass: $1 to win $1,000
Because I want to believe in the impossible in year two of our FBS experiment. Now let me be, I need to do some recruiting.
We're the 42nd best university in the world, and we know how to party. So if you're 18 and you're good at football, why the hell wouldn't you want to go to UMass? Oh right, the MAC. And the lack of football tradition (well, we did win the 1998 I-AA National Championship, and lost by 11 to Appalachian State in the title game the year before they beat #5 Michigan, and we lost to Denard Robinson in the Big House by 5 a few years later. Plus, our head coach was Brian Kelly's offensive coordinator at Notre Dame. So we do have some relevance...hey, at least we have one more championship than Oregon does, just sayin'). OK, now I'm rambling, let's hit the home stretch.
We're the 42nd best university in the world, and we know how to party. So if you're 18 and you're good at football, why the hell wouldn't you want to go to UMass? Oh right, the MAC. And the lack of football tradition (well, we did win the 1998 I-AA National Championship, and lost by 11 to Appalachian State in the title game the year before they beat #5 Michigan, and we lost to Denard Robinson in the Big House by 5 a few years later. Plus, our head coach was Brian Kelly's offensive coordinator at Notre Dame. So we do have some relevance...hey, at least we have one more championship than Oregon does, just sayin'). OK, now I'm rambling, let's hit the home stretch.
NFL
Arizona Cardinals OVER 5.5 Wins
$330 to win $200
The Cardinals defense is good. Period. And it should only get better as Patrick Peterson develops. Now that they finally have a competent quarterback to throw to Larry Fitzgerald, the Cardinals are a legitimate threat to win any game. Remember, they beat the Pats out here last year before Kevin Kolb went down and the walking football disaster took over at QB. They'll win more than five games.
Washington Redskins OVER 8.5 Wins
$200 to win $200
This comes down to my faith in Washington's offensive line and the basic tenets of football (namely, that an effective running game cures all ails and every quarterback is good with time). I've detailed my affinity for Alfred Morris in this space before, but I think any B level runner could rush for 1,200+ behind this line and in this scheme. I don't know what's going to happen with RGIII this year, but I think the run game will weather whatever storms they encounter.
New York Jets UNDER 6.5 Wins
$370 to win $200
Watch this clip and replace "squealers" with "terrible football teams."
San Francisco 49ers UNDER 11 Wins
$130 to win $100
I'm not as bearish on the 49ers as I am on the Aggies. A&M relies entirely on Manziel and the 49ers were a powerhouse before anyone knew who Collin Kaepernick was. But at the same time, their division got a lot better, as did the rest of the NFC, and I don't see them coasting through the league. I think this bet is going to be a push, but needless to say, I'd be more surprised to see them win 12 than 10.
AFC Champion
Baltimore Ravens: $50 to win $750
Terrell Suggs, Haloti Ngata, Elvis Dumervil. Not a bad defensive line. I'll take the defending champs at 15-1, it's just too much value to pass up, even if it does give me a small aneurysm every time I think about their Super Bowl run (#$*& #@&$ Jacoby $^#&ing Jones &#+$*!!!) or the supreme fax up by Doom's agent.
NFC Champion
Washington Redskins: $50 to win $800
This bet is nothing more than respect for RGIII's upside.
Denver Broncos
I'm not touching their win total (11), or any bet of theirs whatsoever until we see how the defense looks without Von Miller. But once Miller comes back, or maybe even before, the Broncos are going to be a good bet because their offense is going to be the highest scoring in franchise history. There is a monster season coming for everyone involved in the Denver passing game and they are going to make a few one score spreads look silly this year. Watch them closely, then jump on them before it's too late.
New Orleans Saints
My train of logic in the previous paragraph took me to this one. Drew Brees, Sean Payton and company are going to be in FU mode all season long, and they already loved to run up the score. If any team scores 60 this year, this is the one. Plus, it might be a little easier to find value on the Saints since they don't have a guy named Manning at quarterback. Well, not anymore.
Happy football season everybody!
Happy football season everybody!
NCAA
Preseason Bets: $1,916 risked. $21,540 max win (realistically $20,540).
2012 W-L-D: 92-86-7
2011 W-L-D: 75-63-5
NFL
Preseason Bets: $1,130 risked. $2,250 max win.
2012 W-L-D: 65-68-1
Money left in bankroll: $96,954
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