Ahhhhh, now I feel better. Let's skip the long intro. You know what this is: a perfect meld of gambling and football. This year, we're junking the top to bottom confidence system and just using money to convey how much I like certain games. And since I like to pretend that I'm rich, I gave myself $100,000! I spent a little over three grand in my season preview on futures bets (one sentence summary: all my upside lies in a monster season from UCLA), so that leaves me with about $97,000 for the rest of the season. I do bet actual money on these games, just not this much; maybe if the Pollis ever takes off, or if I win the lottery...or if I befriend a rich, elderly woman, but no...gross. On to the picks!
North Carolina @ South Carolina
UNDER 56 points
$275 to win $250
The first game is always a little sloppy for most teams, and North Carolina will be integrating five new starters into their offensive scheme. My bet is that they will keep the playbook simple and try to win a field position based game. Because let's face it, you don't want to leave your quarterback hanging out there for too long with this dude lurking around.
Nevada @ UCLA
OVER 65.5 points
$275 to win $250
I detailed my affinity for UCLA earlier this week, so the fact that Nevada will be integrating seven new starters into their defense during this game makes me even more bullish on Brett Hundley and company. There is no doubt in my mind that the Bruins will keep the scoreboard operator busy; all that's left for Nevada is some meaningless 4th quarter points against UCLA's backups and we all can go home happy.
Mississippi State @ Oklahoma State
OVER 61 points
$275 to win $250
Any legitimate quarterback versus a Big 12 defense is a favorable matchup, and Tyler Russell is a name football fans should get used to hearing. Mike "I'm a man! I'm 40!" Gundy and the rest of his staff at Oklahoma State have proven that they will always have a good offense regardless of who is on the field. So, I will boldly go on record and predict that no one will watch the first three quarters of this game, but everybody will watch the fourth. Mississippi State wins 52-48.
Penn State @ Syracuse
UNDER 52 points
$275 to win $250
If you have visited this space before, you are aware of my abject hatred for Big 10 offenses. Penn State will win this game, as their defense should easily shut down an offense that is integrating five new starters, including a quarterback and a head coach. This has "24-6 snoozefest" written all over it.
Utah (-2.5) vs Utah State
$165 to win $150
OK, so I'm not a fan of teams with new head coaches and new systems in game one.
Colorado (+3) vs Colorado State in Denver
$165 to win $150
Alright, so maybe that was a lie. But this is a special case. I swear. Given what CU has put on the field the last half-decade, it's not like the Mcintyre regime can bring the program down any lower. Like, my brain literally cannot create a scenario in which this team could be any worse than they were during the HawkEmbreeins years (that being said, Embree didn't get a fair shake at the job after only two seasons). Still, this is an upgrade, trust me. Mac turned San Jose Frigging State around; he can make CU into a moderately competitive football team. Lastly, eff CSU. Go Buffs.
Central Michigan (+31.5) @ Michigan
$220 to win $200
I would rather put all my money into a fund designed to short Big 10 offenses than in the stock market. Seriously. I also think that the transition from a Denard Robinson-centric offense to a more conventional one is not going to be orderly. I like Devin Gardner, but I don't think everything is going to run smoothly right off the bat.
UMass (+44.5) @ Wisconsin
$220 to win $200
Sure, there was rampant homerism involved in the CU pick, but that's not the case here. This bet has nothing to do with UMass and everything to do with, you guessed it, Big 10 offenses, specifically this underwhelming one. You're never getting anywhere near this many points against the Badgers again. And UMass' big problem last year wasn't the defense, it was their offense (well, when you're the worst team in the country, everything is a problem, but relatively speaking). Now that Montee Ball is gone, do you really see Wisky beating anyone 45-0? They only scored 45+ twice last season: 62 at Indiana, and 70 in that bizarre B1G Championship against Nebraska (that featured the 3rd and 4th best teams in the B1G). I'm sorry, I don't see a powerhouse offense here. The points are just too much to pass up.
Northern Illinois (+3) @ Iowa
$200 to win $200
I'm not approaching this bet from an anti-Big 10 offense perspective the way I did with the previous two, I simply think that UNI is the better team.
Georgia (-2) @ Clemson
$220 to win $200
I love Tajh Boyd's game as much as any player to come into college football in a while, but Georgia's defense is just too good, even with the losses of Alec Ogletree and Jarvis Jones. Plus, Aaron Murray might be the best quarterback in this game.
LSU (-5.5) vs TCU in Dallas
$330 to win $300
The Big 12 has turned into the land of downfield offense and no defense. Teams that are used to running around freely always get a rude awakening once they run into an SEC powerhouse. TCU is a nice football team, but unless it's Texas, I don't see how any Big 12 team should be getting less than a touchdown against Les Miles's Tigers.
Alabama (-20.5) vs Virginia Tech in Atlanta
$345 to win $300
The Hokies are integrating seven new starters into their offense and their first task is to face Nick Saban? Don't outsmart yourself on this one. You'll be cursing your name when you're down 28-3 at halftime. This feels like last year's opener against Michigan all over again. And if you don't remember what happened, here's a refresher.
Parlay
Alabama (-20.5)
LSU (-5.5)
UNC @ South Carolina UNDER 56
Penn St @ Syracuse UNDER 52
$167 to win $2,000
7 Point Teaser
Alabama (-13.5)
Boise State (+10) @ Washington
$130 to win $100
I will take more than a touchdown in nearly any game where Chris Petersen has had an entire offseason to prepare.
7 Point Teaser
Northern Illinois (+10)
Central Michigan (+38.5)
$130 to win $100
6 Point Teaser
LSU (+0.5)
Penn State (-2) @ Syracuse
$110 to win $100
6 Point Teaser
Mississippi State @ Oklahoma State OVER 55
Penn State @ Syracuse UNDER 58
$110 to win $100
6 Point Teaser
South Carolina (-6.5) vs North Carolina
UMass (+50.5) @ Wisconsin
$110 to win $100
OK, So I went a little teaser happy even though my first resolution for this season is to make less of these stupid bets. But whatever, it's week one. Football is back baby! Let's party!
Total Risked: $3,722
Max Win: $5,200
Max Win minus Parlays: $3,033
Percentage of Bankroll Risked: 3.83%
Remaining Bankroll: $93,232
NCAA
Preseason Bets: $1,916 risked. $21,540 max win (realistically $20,540).
2012 W-L-D: 92-86-7
2011 W-L-D: 75-63-5
NFL
Preseason Bets: $1,130 risked. $2,250 max win.
2012 W-L-D: 65-68-1
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