Football Friday

Last week was gross. I lost on North Carolina because of a punt return for a touchdown with 18 seconds left followed by a fumbled snap on the extra point that resulted in a 2 point conversion (covering the 7.5 point spread by half a point). Then, I bet Michigan almost entirely because of Denard Robinson. So what happens? He goes down with an injury in the 2nd quarter and his backup was so terrified that his white pants turned to brown by the end of the 3rd quarter. To top it off, the Bears won but not by enough to cover the measly 1.5 point spread I needed. If these swing the other way, I can subtract four losses and add four wins to last week (resulting in an 11-2 record). Either way, I made the right bet in both college games (Nebraska didn't pull away from Michigan until the end, even in spite of their backup starting out 0 for 11). I just have to stay confident and keep grinding. On to the picks! As a reminder, all bets are ranked in order of confidence.

Oregon @ USC OVER 70
USC under Lane Kiffin is not the same as USC under Pete Carroll. The offense is similar as Matt Barkley and Marquise Lee have demonstrated, but the defense is not your typical USC defense. Arizona (also known as Oregon-lite) was able to move the ball at will against them last week so the real Oregon should have no problem scoring at least 5 touchdowns this weekend. This game should be fun.

Pittsburgh (+17) @ Notre Dame
These teams have played each of the last three years and Notre Dame won each game by 3, 6, and 5 points. The Irish are coming off of a big emotional win and for a week, people seem to have forgotten that their offense is largely inept. Remove blowout wins against Navy and Miami, and Notre Dame is winning games this year by an average of 9 points. This one will be closer than people think.

Georgia Tech (-8.5) @ Maryland
Due to a catastrophic amount of injuries, Maryland is starting a linebacker at quarterback this weekend. Let me extrapolate on that point for those of you who haven't quite understood why I like this bet.

MARYLAND IS STARTING A LINEBACKER AT QUARTERBACK THIS WEEKEND

Wanna know what it looks like when a linebacker throws a football?

See? Lay the points and thank me later. 

LSU (+8.5) vs Alabama
LSU and Alabama have the exact same scoring differential amongst common opponents this year. Given how dominant the Tide has been, this bet makes me a little nervous but it is hard to not take the points at home with a quality SEC team.

Northern Illinois (-35) vs UMass
What happens when one of the highest scoring offenses in the nation meets a team that couldn't stop a stiff breeze? I don't want to find out. Odds that I will be drinking during this game are off the board in Vegas. They will take a Tim Tebow NBA MVP bet before they accept a bet on me drowning my sorrows because of my depressingly crappy football team.

Mississippi State (+7) vs Texas A&M
As surprisingly good as Texas A&M has been this season, they haven't quite been able to get over the hump against quality teams (3 point loss to Florida, 2 point win against Louisiana Tech, and a 5 point loss against LSU). Add in the fact that A&M is starting a freshman quarterback and I think that you have to take the points here.

Oregon State (-4) vs Arizona State
This line is three points too low.

Georgia (-14) vs Ole Miss
It's been a while since Georgia completely obliterated a team. This weekend seems like a good opportunity.

Kansas State (-8.5) vs Oklahoma State
All hail Bill Snyder. I'm done figuring out what makes him so great. I'm just going to bet him every week and enjoy the ride.

Nebraska (-1.5) @ Michigan State
Michigan State is stinky. Nebraska is slightly less stinky.

Washington (+4) @ California
These teams are equal but Washington has a decided edge in the quarterback department. Take the points.

(6 point teaser)
Kansas State (-2.5) vs Oklahoma State
Oregon (-2.5) @ USC
Teasing the better teams in each matchup is usually a winning strategy.

(6 point teaser)
Vanderbilt (-1) @ Kentucky
Georgia Tech (-2.5) v@ Maryland
If you couldn't tell from my Football Friday columns this year, I dig Vandy. Oh, and

MARYLAND IS STARTING A LINEBACKER AT QUARTERBACK THIS WEEKEND

(6 point teaser)
LSU (+14.5) vs Alabama
West Virginia (+1) vs TCU
Bold prediction: Geno rises from the dead this week and lights up TCU's staunch defense. Just have to hope that West Virginia's defense can come up with a stop.

(6 point teaser)

Texas Tech (-0.5) vs Texas
Washington (+10) @ California
2 gambling rules come in to play in the Texas game. 1. If you struggle to beat Kansas, I am not going to pick you against my favorite team to gamble on this year. 2. If you're coached by Mack Brown, you better give me a damn good reason to bet you to win (examples of damn good reasons: Vince Young, Jamaal Charles, Ricky Williams).

Chicago (-3.5) @ Tennessee
I'm so conflicted this year. I love the Bears as a team to gamble on but anyone who employs a sniveling little rat at quarterback is impossible to root for. If it is at all possible for the Bears to win while Jay Cutler's ACL gets turned into linguine, that would be perfect. Although last season we saw what Chicago was capable (or not capable) of when their enigmatic quarterback is out so that probably isn't going to happen.

Denver (-4) @ Cincinnati 
Last year I enthusiastically bet the Broncos during that crazy run where Tebow did everything short of produce a virgin birth at the 50 yard line (although he may have done it on the sidelines during the Chicago game). This year, I stayed the heck away early, and now I'm trepidatiously betting the Broncos. Peyton just looks too damn good to stay away from a line like this.

Baltimore (-3.5) @ Cleveland
Cleveland is not as good as San Diego made them look last week and Baltimore is not as bad as they looked last week.

New York Giants (-3.5) vs Pittsburgh
I feel a little guilty for betting the Giants because my reasoning has to do with hurricane Sandy. Pittsburgh won't get in to New York until Sunday. Let's take a detour from football for a second so we can focus on real issues.

A few weeks back, my sister got into a car accident. She ended up being OK but the kid she was with drove off the road and went head-on into a light post. While my sister was waiting for the ambulance to arrive, a woman stopped her car, got out out, wrapped a blanket around her, and comforted my sister until the EMTs arrived. As soon as the ambulance got there, the woman got back in her car and drove away. My sister remarked that she felt guilty because she never got the woman's name or even was able to thank her due to the shock of running into a pole at 40 miles per hour. The thing is, there is no need to thank that woman. The reason she did what she did came from a simple desire to help others. She did not want to get credit or be owed any favors. She comforted my sister because it was the right thing to do. This is what being a citizen is all about. So please, do what you can to help people who have been affected by this hurricane. Don't do this because some random dude on the internet says so, but because you know that is what your instincts are telling you to do. This is a great country filled with great people. There is no doubt in my mind that we will rise again to meet this challenge and come out stronger than ever.

Kansas City (Money Line +265)* @ San Diego
Where the hell did the LOLChargers go? I miss them.

*Money Line means I bet them to win the game outright

(7 point teaser)
Houston (-3) vs Buffalo
Minnesota (+11) @ Seattle
Seattle, Arizona, Tampa Bay, Minnesota, Detroit, Dallas, Washington, Philadelphia, San Diego, Cincinnati, and Miami. There is your NFL middle class (the teams that will finish between 7-9 and 9-7). If you can find a way to get more than a touchdown in any matchup of these teams, take it.

(Parlay)
Chicago (Money Line -175) @ Tennessee
Denver (Money Line -200) @ Cincinnati
Baltimore (Money Line -190) @ Cleveland
Houston (-7) vs Buffalo
I feel very confident in these three teams to win outright and I also can't picture a scenario in which Houston does not eviscerate the Bills. Arian Foster might have 1,000 yards rushing by halftime. This parlay pays out at +4600. Best of luck this weekend my fellow degens.

Last Week
College: 7-6
NFL: 5-3
Season
College: 49-64-2
NFL: 32-24-0