Thanksgiving Day Favorites
Notre Dame (-5.5) @ USC
This is by far my favorite bet of the week (and if we're talking the amount wagered, my 3rd favorite bet this year, second only to Northwestern and Mississippi State last week). The golden domers believe that they have the best defense in the country and will have no fear of USC's watered down offense (and they might, Manti Te'o has my Heisman vote. No player has been more important to his team's success.). I have a hard time seeing how they will let a freshman quarterback making his first start destroy the most important Notre Dame season since the H. W. Bush administration. USC's season is over. UCLA relegated them to the yourenevervisitingthissite.com No One Gives a Shit Bowl last week. Combine this with the fact that USC has allowed 38 points or more in three of the last four weeks, and I think that the Irish will win easily. Let's say by three scores.
(Parlay)
Houston -4 @ Detroit
Houston @ Detroit UNDER 49
I just don't think that the Lions are very good and Houston has to come out with more focus today after taking five quarters to beat the Jaguars at home last week. I expect this to be a low scoring game with both teams finishing around the 20s. Plus, 11:30 on a Thursday morning is a weird time to play. I feel like we're gonna see some sloppy play.
(7 point teaser)
Houston @ Detroit UNDER 56
Washington (+10) @ Dallas
New England (PK) @ New York Jets
I think RGIII has a big day today. The guy was made to play in the spotlight. Speaking of spotlights, hello Mr. Ugg.
 |
| Getting mounted by a Rottweiler and posing in an S&Mish shot with a spiked collar around your neck. Totally normal activities for a superstar quarterback. |
Houston (-180) @ Detroit
Houston @ Detroit UNDER 49
Washington (+150) @ Dallas
Baltimore (-1) @ San Diego
New England (-300) @ New York Jets
Denver (-600) @ Kansas City
San Fransisco (-1) @ New Orleans
I'm taking some of the proceeds I stole last week and have committed them to trying to steal even more money this week. This pays out at +4100.
**Thanksgiving Day Halftime Update during Houston-Detroit**
(7 point teaser)
Washington (+10.5) @ Dallas
New York Jets (+14) vs New England
Signs you know your Thanksgiving day bets are in trouble: you're chasing losses at halftime of the first game. I need Houston to win the 2nd half 13-0. Time to move on. I should have gone the other way on the Pats game on my other teaser. Chandler Jones is a big loss for them. Oh well, 14 is still a pretty big range for two banged up teams on a short week. I think I can win both. Pats win 27-21.
Black Friday Specials
Mississippi State (+1.5) @ Ole Miss
Tyler Russell has been fantastic this year, completing 60% of his passes with a 21 to 4 touchdown to interception ratio. If it's basically a straight pick'em in a rivalry game, you gotta go with the better quarterback and Ole Miss's pass defense has been mediocre, ranking 84th in yards per pass.
Florida (+7) @ Florida State
Georgia Tech @ Georgia UNDER 64
High scoring offenses in the ACC always seem to slow down once they run into SEC defenses.
Ball State (-7) @ Miami (OH)
Miami (OH) defense: 5.66 YPC (120th in the NCAA). Ball State offense: 5.09 YPC (23rd in the NCAA).
West Virginia (-2.5) @ Iowa State
Only five teams have allowed more pass plays of 10+ yards than Iowa State this year. Stedman Bailey and Tavon Austin, get ready to feast.
Ohio State (-4) vs Michigan
Hey people, Ohio State is 11-0 and they're winning by an average of 14 points per game. I don't care about NCAA sanctions, this is a top 5 team.
Texas Tech (+3.5) @ Baylor
Baylor lives off the big play but Texas Tech has been stingy in that department this year, ranking 12th in the nation in plays of 10+ yards given up.
LSU (-12) @ Arkansas
It's the last game of a miserable season against a very good team playing for something. Arkansas has quit written all over them.
Clemson (-3) vs South Carolina
Tajh Boyd laying 3 against a team that was tied at halftime with Wofford at home last week? C'mon, I don't even need to think about this. It's just a reflex.
(6 point teaser)
Mississippi State (+7.5) @ Ole Miss
Notre Dame (+0.5) @ USC
Loooove this.
(7 point teaser)
Florida (+14) @ Florida State
Oregon (-2.5) @ Oregon State
Oregon isn't out of the title hunt just yet.
(7 point teaser)
Texas Tech (+10.5) @ Baylor
Rutgers (+8.5) @ Pittsburgh
I'll be shocked if either team scores 8 points in this Rutgers-Pitt game.
(6 point teaser)
Michigan State (-2.5) @ Minnesota
UCLA (+8.5) vs Stanford
Minnesota is awful and UCLA-Stanford has one score game written all over it.
(6 point teaser)
Ball State (-1.5) @ Miami (OH)
LSU (-6) @ Arkansas
Good run game! Bad run D! Quit! That's really all I have to say about this teaser.
(6 point teaser)
Georgia Tech @ Georgia UNDER 70
West Virginia (+3.5) @ Iowa State
Georgia is the most underrated team in the country. They're tough in the run game and Aaron Murray is one of the best play action quarterbacks around. I'm rooting for a Georgia-Notre Dame national championship. That would be one of the most physical title games in recent memory.
(parlay)
Florida (+245) @ Florida State
Michigan State (-330) @ Minnesota
Mississippi State (+1.5) @ Ole Miss
Notre Dame (-5.5) @ USC
Oregon (-350) @ Oregon State
Texas Tech (+145) @ Baylor
Once you get the taste of one stupid parlay, you can't help but throw around a couple bucks here and there and see if you can hit another big one. This pays out at +5300.
Baltimore (-1) @ San Diego
Phillip Rivers walked off the field with 13 seconds left down by 7 last week. Norv is busy updating his resume and Rivers is surveying the league seeing who he can force a trade to. Stick a fork in these guys. The're done.
San Fransisco (-1) @ New Orleans
What San Fransisco brought to the table last week was terrifying. They've jumped another level. Granted, they are not going to be as dominant as they were now that there is tape of Colin Kaepernick's RGIII-esque offense. However, the element of surprise was not the main reason for the 49ers dominance Monday night, it was Kaepernick's high level of play. If Kaepernick can be efficient and not turn the ball over, the 49ers are the clear Super Bowl favorites.
Denver (-10.5) @ Kansas City
I remember a time not so long ago where I wrote off every Bronco game in Kansas City as a loss and every Chief game in Denver as a win. Now I just put 2-0 next to those games every year. It's sad what's happened to the Chiefs (but also really funny).
(7 point teaser)
Green Bay (+10) @ New York Giants
Cincinnati (-1) vs Oakland
Cincinnati is a -800 favorite to be the most teased team this week. And it also should be criminal to get this many points with Aaron Rodgers.
(6 point teaser)
Denver (-4.5) @ Kansas City
Cincinnati (-2) vs Oakland
I bet Cincinnati as a -800 favorite to be the most teased. Just trying to make sure I win my bet...by making another bet...I should probably start attending some meetings.
(parlay)
San Fransisco (-1) @ New Orleans
Denver (-10.5) @ Kansas City
Baltimore (-1) @ San Diego
Cincinnati (-370) vs Oakland
Yup. I've got a problem. This pays out at +840. Good luck everyone.
**Sunday Update**
(6.5 point teaser)
Minnesota (+13) @ Chicago
Saint Louis (+7.5) @ Arizona
With Minnesota's pass rush and the Bears' non-existent offensive line, even with Cutler returning this game should be close. And if you can get a touchdown or more against Ryan freakin' Lindley, take it. Or just light some money on fire if you don't. It's the same thing.
Last Week
College: 5-8
NFL: 4-4
Season
College: 79-79-4
NFL: 42-37-1
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