Ray Rice OVER 3.5 Receptions
Slowing down Torrey Smith is the key to slowing down the Ravens offense. When he's picking up chunk yards, it allows the Ravens to get more creative with their calls on 1st and 2nd down which makes life hell for opposing defensive coordinators. I think we'll see a concerted effort by San Francisco to keep a safety back at all times to make sure Torrey Smith can't make any game changing plays. This creates more room around the line of scrimmage and Flacco has proven that he doesn't care what the situation is, if Ray Rice is open, he gets the ball. Just ask San Diego.
Dennis Pitta OVER 4 Receptions
This follows the "cover Torrey Smith at all costs" logic. With safeties concerned about the deep threat and the linebackers keyed in on Ray Rice, this should leave Pitta in a lot of 1 on 1 situations. This is like football porn for Joe Flacco who has never seen a window too small to throw through. Say what you want about him (CoughDouchebagCough), but Flacco has one of the strongest arms in the league and he's not afraid to use it.
Will Colin Kaepernick Score a Rushing TD? YES
Simple logic here, Kaep is the 49ers best endzone threat in the red zone. I say he sneaks in on a read option inside the 10.
Vernon Davis OVER 48.5 Receiving Yards
I'm bullish on tight ends for Super Bowl XLVII (insert token homophobic/mom/sister joke here). The Ravens are going to key in on stopping the running game so they can get Kaepernick in 3rd and long situations. According to Football Outsiders, "Pretty much every defense gets better against the run with more men in the box, but the Ravens got comparitively better." Baltimore ranked 6th in the league defensively in yards per carry with eight men in the box. I think San Francisco counters this strategy with a lot of play action. When you send linebackers and safeties to rush the quarterback, that usually means that a tight end or a running back will be left in single coverage. All it takes is one long catch and run by Davis against a slow linebacker and safety corps for over to be a near certainty. This is my second favorite prop bet.
Delaine Walker OVER 1.5 Receptions
The Ravens struggle against play fakes and only five teams ran play action more than the 49ers did this year. Since I expect Baltimore to bring extra rushers for most of the game, this means that Kaepernick will probably have to get rid of the ball quickly. Delaine Walker's job in the 49er offense is to run safe routes where Kaep can dump it off to him so as to keep the offense on schedule. I think San Francisco will run more 2 tight end sets to deal with the increased pressure from Baltimore and Walker will leak out and catch a few balls just to keep the edge rushers honest.
Ravens 1st Half Points +14.5 vs 49ers Total Points
Both defenses are playing well and I think both teams will limit the big plays. I expect this to be a low scoring contest so 14.5 is a lot of points even after taking into account the extra 30 minutes the 49ers get. Plus I'm pretty sure I'm biologically predisposed to take any amount of points if they're in the double digits on any bet ever.
Who Will Have More?
Senators + Canadiens 1st Period Goals
Joe Flacco TD Passes
These bets are why I and every other degenerate squeal with glee over Super Bowl Sunday. They're silly but who cares? It's the only time of the year you're able to make a bet like this. Vernon Davis over 48.5 receiving yards is my 2nd favorite prop bet of the Super Bowl, this is my first. I'm all over Flacco. It's honestly pretty stupid how much money I put on a crazy prop like this. Craig Andersen and Carey Price are two top notch goalies and Ottawa and Montreal aren't exactly offensive juggernauts. It could easily be 0-0 at the end of one. Flacco is the bet here.
Who Will Have More?
Italy + France Points in RBS 6 Nations Rugby Union (-10.5)
Distance of 1st Made Field Goal
Yes, this is a real bet that you can make right now on Sportsbook.com. I don't know diddly poo about rugby or even what a normal amount of points are but I'm going to take it over David "I'm so bad my coach is considering signing someone in a wheelchair" Akers and a rookie kicker in the Super Bowl. Plus one of the offenses will probably stall inside the 20. Come on Italy and France! Score 50 goals/points/shooty hoops or whatever you call your scoring system and this is a lock.
Who Will Have More?
Paul Pierce Points (+5)
Ravens Points
With Rondo out, Pierce is the logical guy to pick up the scoring load. If he drops 30 on the Clippers, this wins easily.
Who Will Have More?
Blake Griffin Points & Rebounds (-3)
49ers Points
The Celtics transition defense is awful which should lead to a few easy dunks for the Blake show; perhaps the deadliest big man running the floor in the NBA (although there's a man with a mustache on his finger in Denver who would beg to differ).
Rondo is the Celtics best defender and the Celtics will really miss him against Chris Paul. That combination leads me to think that Griffin will have a big game on Sunday. The easy transition buckets he gets from his Lob City partner will make the difference in this line.
Who Will Have More?
Lionel Messi Goals (-0.5)
Frank Gore Touchdowns
For some reason I don't see Frank Gore having that big of a game. I think the Super Bowl gets decided through the air or Colin Kaepernick's legs. Plus, Messi's 2012 was flat out amazeballs.
Lionel Messi was more likely to score multiple goals than be shut out in 2012: twitter.com/PCarrESPN/stat…
— Paul Carr (@PCarrESPN) December 22, 2012
Who Will Have More?
LeBron James Points
49ers Points (+1.5)
I don't see LeBron having much action in this game for two reasons. First, they're playing the Raptors. LeBron might not even play in the 4th quarter. Secondly, I'm pretty sure he cares more about the Super Bowl than this game.
Who Will Have More?
Chris Bosh Points (-0.5)
Largest Lead of Super Bowl XLVII
Like I said, I think the Super Bowl will be close, plus Chris Bosh will be guarded by Andrea Bargnani who is slightly better defensively than the folding chair that Yi Jianlian and Darko Millicic dominated in their pre-draft workouts.
Who Will Have More?
John Tavares Points
Total Scores in the Final 2 Minutes of the 1st Half of Super Bowl XLVII
Tavares is a star, having already recorded 11 points in 7 games this season. The maximum amount of scores we'll see is two in the final two minutes and Tavares could easily reach that mark by the end of the 2nd period. Hockey trumps football in this bet.
And Finally...The Actual Game
UNDER 47.5 Points
Physical teams typically play lower scoring games. Final score in this one is 21-17.
San Francisco (-3) vs Baltimore (bought 0.5 point)
Why?
- I'm still bitter over the hail mary in Denver.
- Colin Kaepernick's legs.
- Michael Crabtree's severe underratedness.
- San Francisco's insanely talented linebackers.
- Baltimore's struggles with play action.
- The interior of the 49er offensive line's ability to handle Haloti Ngata.
- Jim Harbaugh is the best coach in the league.
- Karma for this douchetastic picture
Good luck everyone. Enjoy the last day of football until the fall.
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