Man, this has been a funky betting season. I can't get anything right but silly parlays and teasers in the NFL, and the opposite is true in college. I'm proud of my 47-39 ATS record, but I've thrown money away by going 7-15 on parlays and teasers (to be fair, a good amount of those losses were longshot parlays for not a ton of money, but still, a loss is a loss). So we're going to adjust a bit this week. No, not by betting less parlays and teasers in college (the non-ten point teaser makes it's triumphant return this week!), but in the NFL. You'll see. Let's get to it.
Oregon (-39.5) vs Washington State
$330 to win $300
By the time this game starts, someone in the Florida State-Clemson game will have made a compelling argument to be #2 in the nation. I think the Ducks will make a statement against a terrible team while trying to restore order (as they see it) to the BCS.
Washington (+3.5) @ Arizona State
$330 to win $300
Arizona State can score with anyone, yet they always seem to fall a few plays short at the end of games. Taylor Kelly is a solid quarterback, but Keith Price is a stud. When two teams look equal in this conference, go with the better QB, especially if he's getting points. You need em in the PAC-12 bajillion touchdowns every week.
Notre Dame (-3) vs USC
$345 to win $300
I vote renaming this game the "HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!! Bowl."
New um...thing alert! This is the "Put your money where your mouth is" section. Since two of my favorites are playing gigantic, national title-implicating games this weekend, I figured I'd fire some larger than normal shots. This way, if I'm right, I can embrace my inner Cartman.
UCLA (+5.5) @ Stanford
$1,100 to win $1,000
If you've read one Football Friday post this year, you had to know that this was coming. UCLA is better than Stanford. And Stanford is a damn good football team.
UCLA (+170) to win
$500 to win $850
I think I'm officially in "Bill Simmons QB-near obsession" territory with Brett Hundley. I'm not at the "Jaaaaash Freeman" or "Russell the Hustle, Bustle, Muscle, -ussell Wilson" stage yet, but if they win tomorrow, things could change quickly. STAY AWAY FROM UCLA YOU VULTURES! I SAW THEM FIRST! THEY'RE MINE!
UCLA @ Stanford OVER 54 points
$770 to win $700
If I'm horribly wrong about the Bruins, at least I've got Kevin Hogan to bail me out here in this mini-hedge.
Clemson (+3) vs Florida State
$1,100 to win $1,000
One of the common themes in my college football betting the past three years has been making money off of Clemson early in the season, then not abandoning them in time for their perennial season ending swoon. Well, I may be a fool again, but I just don't think that Tajh Boyd will throw a stinker with the National Championship on the line in what could be the last game in his career with such implications (all the BCS haters out there cannot deny that college football's regular season carries the most weight out of any sport. You want playoff games? Here's one, UCLA-Stanford is another). Jameis Winston has been phenomenal this year, but the intensity and the passion of this game is something that he has never experienced before. I think we'll finally see him get rattled a bit by a very good pass rush and a deafening crowd.
Back to our regularly scheduled programming
Texas Tech (-5.5) @ West Virginia
$330 to win $300
Remember one year ago, when Geno Smith had the Heisman locked up and people were pining for a West Virginia-Oregon title game? Things have changed quite a bit haven't they? Well, one thing hasn't. I know that the Red Raiders are down to their 2nd quarterback, but I don't think that really matters against the Mountaineer defense (plus, as many Tech QB's have shown us over the years, it's the system, not the talent that produces the numbers). West Virginia couldn't stop a nosebleed with a pallet of tissues. Any good offense should have to give up a touchdown against them, regardless of where the game is played; Morgantown, Lubbock, Jakarta, hell, even on Newt Gingrich's secret lunar colony.
Oklahoma @ Kansas OVER 49.5 points
$330 to win $300
Bob Stoops is pissed off and all of a sudden, he might be coaching for his job. Kansas is really really really bad. Points will be scored.
Missouri (+3) vs Florida
$330 to win $300
Initially, I picked the Gators just because of how bad Maty Mauk looked at QB in a handful of snaps against Georgia last week. But after taking some time to think, I remembered that this guy was one of the most sought after recruits in the nation, and that he also has two NFL receivers to throw to. Plus, coming in for a few snaps at the end of a game doesn't really compare to having a week's time to prepare. Lastly, Florida just isn't the same team on the road that they are at home. Take the points, you'll need them. This one will be close all day.
Colorado State (+7) @ Wyoming
$330 to win $300
It's a rivalry game and Wyoming's run defense should be vulnerable against a not-awful CSU ground attack. I'll stop talking now, I know you don't care about this game. I don't really either. Go Buffs.
Auburn (+14) @ Texas A&M
$345 to win $300
The Aggies have one of the worst run defenses in the country, and that's not hyperbole. A&M allows 5.75 yards per carry. Only UNLV, UMass (le sigh), New Mexico, UTEP, Eastern Michigan, Nevada, and New Mexico State are worse. Johnny Manziel is amazing, but he can't do everything. Auburn is 5th in the nation in yards per carry at 6.26. The Tigers will literally run up and down the field on the Aggies all day. Take the points.
Parlay
UCLA (+170) to win
Clemson (+120) to win
$500 to win $2,500
You had to see this coming right?
Parlay
UCLA (+170) to win
Clemson (+120) to win
Missouri (+135) to win
$200 to win $2,600
So not only do I have to sweat out the biggest games of their lives for my two favorite college quarterbacks (Johnny Manziel is #1 in terms of must see-TV, but I can't help but root for Hundley and Boyd, I love their games and I love the way they carry themselves), but I have also staked a large amount of money on their success. Damn...this weekend has the potential to really really suck. Orrrrr...SHUT UP JACOB-JINX!
6 point teaser
Duke (+8.5) @ Virginia
Texas Tech (+0.5)
$330 to win $300
Duke is a better team than Virginia and this feels destined to be a one score game. Yeah, I can tell you really care about this one too.
6.5 point teaser
UCLA (+12)
Washington (+10)
$480 to win $400
My one word conference power rankings
SEC: Loaded
PAC-12: Pointsplosion
ACC: WTFHOWDIDYOUGETSOGOODSOFAST?
B1G: AAA
Big 12: Collapse
The 10 point teaser
Northwestern (-2.5) vs Minnesota
Auburn (+24)
UCLA (+15.5)
$480 to win $400
The last spot in this teaser came down to Northwestern or LSU (-0.5) at Ole Miss. Home teams trump when all else is equal in college football. Plus, the gap between Ole Miss and Minnesota is much wider than the one between LSU and Northwestern.
After losing Arizona (+6.5) in my pool last night, I had something like, but still short of an epiphany (because of who it involves, and his relative inability to have said epiphanies on his own). I'm 17-26-1 ATS in this stupid frigging league and I feel lucky to be that good. I'm directionless with no hope in sight. So now, it is time to go full Costanza on these picks.
"If every instinct you have is wrong, then the opposite, would have to be right."
New York Jets (+4) vs New England
$330 to win $300
Gronk is back! There's no way the Pats will let the Jets play them close again, especially after their stinker last week against the extra stinky Steelers. Brady wins this in a romp.
Pittsburgh (-1.5) vs Baltimore
$330 to win $300
Speaking of that awful gold and black-clad football team (no, not CU for once), I cannot believe that Vegas is actually giving me points with the Ravens. Seriously, how can you ever turn down the better team plus the points???
Detroit (-3) vs Cincinnati
$315 to win $300
The Bengals are easily the pick, especially with a gimpy Calvin Johnson taking half the offensive snaps for Detroit. They're just a different team without him (unless they're playing a certain quarterback in a downtrodden city that may or may not appear later in these bets). No way the Lions cover three without Megatron playing at 100%.
Miami (-7.5) vs Buffalo
$330 to win $300
I actually like Thad Lewis! He's decisive with the football and he throws a good deep ball. Even with the Dolphins coming off a bye, a TD+ is just too much to pass up. Buffalo is one of those 8-8ish teams that simply isn't very fun to play against regardless of who you are.
Philadelphia (-2.5) vs Dallas
$330 to win $300
Wait, so I'm getting points with a good quarterback and a dominant wide receiver against Philly's abjectly terrible secondary? Please and thank you.
Atlanta (-7) vs Tampa Bay
$330 to win $300
Tampa Bay is another one of those pesky 8-8ish teams. The problem is that they're held back by the unequivocal worst coach in the NFL. Still, seven points against the Texans East is just too much to pass up.
Houston (+6.5) @ Kansas City
$330 to win $300
Speaking of fallen middle of the road powers, Case Keenum is tasked with saving the Texans season. His first test? Walking into the hornets nest that is Arrowhead. This won't end well.
6.5 point teaser
Chicago (+7.5) @ Washington
Dallas (+9)
$360 to win $300
I'm 13-14-1 on NFL teasers and parlays, so no Costanza-ing here...yet. I mean seriously, how the hell do you pass up a TD+ against the two worst pass defenses in the league? At the very least, the backdoor will be left wide open at the end of these games. The question is do you trust Tony Romo and not as good Tony Romo to walk through it?
Parlay
Denver (-280) to win
Kansas City (-280) to win
$590 to win $500
I don't care that I Costanza'd my Chiefs pick. I'm taking them to win outright. Seriously, what don't you like about this bet? OK, you're right, Denver on the road against a playoff team is much murkier than KC at home against one of the frontrunners for the 2013 NFL trainwreck award. (sponsored by Lindsay Lohan's totaled 2011 Porche Carrera!)
The 10 point teaser
Denver (+3) @ Indianapolis
Jacksonville (+18) vs San Diego
Green Bay (PK) vs Cleveland
$480 to win $400
What started as a gimmick just for these posts has become a legitimate money maker for me. These and my 2 or 3 team money line parlays are the only successes in the NFL that I can really point to. I like Denver because of Indy's short week and because Jim Irsay decided to turn on Peyton's "OH NOW IT'S EFFING ON MOTHER EFFER" switch (and if you don't think Peyton is pissed, then look to "everything is always sunny and if it doesn't involve me directly I won't comment on it" John Fox, whose retort included words like "cheap shot" "ungrateful" and "inappropriate." There is a 0% chance that Fox drops bombs like that unless Peyton OK'd the sentiment behind them). I like the Jaguars plus the points because of San Diego's short week and Justin Blackmon (who is looking like a pretty good keeper in the 15th round for my fantasy team right now). And I like Green Bay to win outright because...basic logic. This week saw two absolute gems from Browns fans. First, this from Scott E. Entsminger in his obituary.
"He respectfully requests six Cleveland Browns pall bearers so the Browns can let him down one last time."
And our silver medalist:
As always, God hates Cleveland, bet accordingly. Have a good weekend everyone.
Total Risked: $11,855
Max Win: $16,350
Max Win Minus Parlays: $10,750
Percentage of Bankroll Risked: 13.67%
Remaining Bankroll: $74,866
Max Win: $16,350
Max Win Minus Parlays: $10,750
Percentage of Bankroll Risked: 13.67%
Remaining Bankroll: $74,866
Plus/Minus $ from last week: $3,890
NFL
Last Week: 2-7
Season: 30-41-2
NCAA
Last Week: 6-10Season: 43-55
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