Football Friday

Last week was rough. The only highlights came in my secondary bets, as I went 0-4 in my four biggest swings of the year. In retrospect, betting big on UCLA was kind of stupid given all the preseason bets I have on them. If anything I should have hedged those by betting on Stanford. And Clemson...well, this isn't the first time I've been down this road with that team. I'd like to say that I'm officially swearing off Tajh Boyd and the Tigers for the rest of the season, but I'm weak and I can only guarantee that I will stay away this week (-17 at Maryland is way more trouble than it's worth). It's my birthday so I will try to keep everything short and simple as my jinxing super power feels very strong today.

Vanderbilt @ Texas A&M UNDER 70 points
$550 to win $500
Vandy will be calling on their backup QB for this game and Johnny Manziel is banged up. There is a very good chance that we might only see three quarters of Johnny Fucking Football this week.

Texas (+1.5) @ TCU
$330 to win $300
Texas controls its own destiny in the Big 12 race. I think Mack Brown will keep these guys afloat until their last two games (vs Texas Tech and at Baylor, again, BCS haters, you want a big tournament? Check out the current Big 12 standings. Nearly every one of Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, Baylor, and Texas all play each other down the stretch or have already. College football has a de facto playoff system within each BCS conference right now. It's not perfect, but it's still exciting).

Missouri (-3) vs South Carolina
$330 to win $300
Speaking of teams that control their own destiny, apparently there are people in this world who wonder if an undefeated Mizzou could play for the national title. How is this a debate? Who would have more impressive wins than this team if they ran the table?

@ Georgia
vs Florida
vs South Carolina
vs Texas A&M
@ Ole Miss
Alabama (probably) in the SEC title game.

Analysts who focus on the name on the front of the jersey instead of the one on the back are stupid. The Tigers have the best set of receivers and pass rushers in the SEC. I could go on and on about this team but if I did, they most certainly would lose 84-0. So let's just keep moving.

Louisville (-20.5) @ USF
$440 to win $400
USawFul.

Massachusetts (-3) vs Western Michigan
$330 to win $300
All time, UMass is undefeated ATS as a favorite. Let's get to the next pick before you research the sample size of that statistic.

UCLA @ Oregon OVER 72 points
$330 to win $300
I am such a sucker.

UCLA (+23.5) @ Oregon
$330 to win $300
I know that Brett Hundley looked like a poor man's JaMarcus Russell last week, but I think that this is a better matchup for UCLA  than Stanford. The Cardinal want to get you in to a fistfight and pound on you for 60 minutes. Oregon literally wants to run you out of the building. That tempo is preferable to Hundley and the rest of the offense. I think that the Bruins can hang with them long enough to cover three touchdowns.

The 10 point teaser
UCLA (+33.5)
Louisville (-10.5)
Colorado (+23) vs Arizona
$480 to win $400
It's my birthday so I can do whatever I want. Go Buffs. And go Minutemen. I will be on hand in Foxboro to do what I can to help our rising MAC powerhouse.

I was over .500 ATS in the NFL last week, only my second time all year. The Tao of Costanza lead me to profit in its first week of action, so why stop now? In his honor, I will rely on the words of George Costanza to try to contextualize either one or both teams in each bet.

San Francisco (-16) @ Jacksonville
$330 to win $300

"No I can't. I can't die with dignity. I want to be the one person who doesn't die with dignity. I live my whole life in shame. Why should I die with dignity?"

Having ChaBlained HenGabbertee start two consecutive seasons is about as close as it gets in the NFL to dying without dignity. In Jacksonville nonetheless.

New England (-7) vs Miami

$330 to win $300

"Jerry, just remember: it's not a lie if you believe it."

This one goes out to Tom Brady. I imagine him looking in the mirror after yet another game where he goes 20/37 while Aaron Dobson, Julian Edelman, and Kenbrell Thompkins drop a combined 14 passes, pointing at himself and forcefully exclaiming "You sacrificed that money for a good cause! Bill has a plan. Even if it does involve letting my best friend catch passes from my arch-nemesis...Yes...Yes...This will all work out for the best. We're a run first team now! When the rest of the NFL zigs, Billy zags. Yeah...that's it! He's a genius! This will all work out for the best...I'm sure of it!"

New York Giants @ Philadelphia UNDER 51.5 points

$330 to win $300

"I can't carry a pen, I'm afraid it'll puncture my scrotum."

Ineptitude at this level is difficult to achieve, and we should all appreciate how the Giants are redefining bad football this year. Philly's defense is just beginning to learn that if it walks around the office wearing a cup, it wouldn't have to worry about pens in their pocket doing horrible things to their man-region. The Eagles offense is the only unit in this game that has demonstrated any measure of competency this season.  

Cincinnati (-6.5) vs New York Jets

$330 to win $300

"If you take everything I've accomplished in my life and condense it down to one day, it looks decent!"

Cut to old Bengals and Jets fans silently nodding. 

Arizona (-2) vs Atlanta

$330 to win $300

"Kramer, listen to me. I'm never gonna have a child. If I lose this Frogger high score...that's it for me."

This one is perfect for two historically irrelevant franchises, save for very short stretches or moments where they were just competitive enough to rip their fanbases collective hearts to shreds. 

Washington @ Denver UNDER 59.5 points

$330 to win $300

"I would like to dip my bald head in oil and rub it all over your body."

Finding a George Costanza quote filled with optimism is difficult, but if any one describes both of these fanbases attitudes towards their quarterbacks, this is it.

The 10 point teaser

New Orleans (-0.5) vs Buffalo

St. Louis (+21.5) vs Seattle

Denver (-3) vs Washington

$360 to win $300

"But maybe the two of us, working together at full capacity, could do the full job of one man."

If you combined one level of the Rams, Bills and the D.C. Taboo's defenses with a combination of RGII, Alfred Morris, and all of Buffalo's weapons, you'd have a playoff team. And yes, this bet is Costanza'd too. I do not trust myself today. Have a good weekend everyone.  

Total Risked: $5,460
Max Win: $4,900
Max Win Minus Parlays: $4,900
Percentage of Bankroll Risked: 6.62%
Remaining Bankroll: $77,026

Plus/Minus $ from last week: $4,235

NFL 

Last Week: 5-5

Season: 35-46-2

NCAA

Last Week: 7-10
Season: 50-65