Baylor @ Kansas State UNDER 76
$330 to win $300
Baylor only eclipsed 50 points in two road games last year. A 56-50 loss at Texas, and the logic defying, existing in a vaccum if any game ever has, 70-63 contest at West Virginia last year. This ridiculous 70 point per game pace is something Baylor can only maintain on their fast track at home. Kansas State isn't great, but they're not cannon fodder. I'm terrified betting against this offense but I think we finally found the ceiling on this Baylor team.
Oregon @ Washington OVER 77 points
$330 to win $300
Hypocrite alert! What's the philosophical difference between this and the Baylor bet? Well, Keith Price for one. Washington can move the ball and I think Oregon might be interested in the game for a full four quarters tomorrow, and they've been covering overs playing full throttle for only three so far.
Colorado @ Arizona State OVER 66.5 points
$330 to win $300
Seriously guys, CU's offense is going to come around at some point. Paul Richardson is too good. And this is a good spot because A) They'll need to, the Sun Devil offense is explosive and B) ASU's defense has given up at least four touchdowns to everyone they've played this year other than Sacramento State. CU has fallen off, but at least they're not as bad as Sacramento State. Wait...what? Oh right, sad face emoticon, let's just move on.
Michigan @ Penn State UNDER 51 points
$330 to win $300
My B1G Zzzzz fest of the week, or your money not back because you never paid me! (although it sure would be swell if you did) PSU's defense is for real and that Akron-Michigan game is pretty much the only thing that comes up when I analyze the Wolverines. Seriously, what the hell was that?!?!
Indiana (+9.5) @ Michigan State
$440 to win $400
This is the most intriguing matchup in the B1G this week outside my next bet. It's a 50% game! What's a 50% game you ask? It's when the only intriguing matchup in the game is on the field at the same time. For example, Indiana's up tempo offense has turned them into a legitimate middle tier B1G team (it sounds patronizing, but given where IU was a few years ago, my guess is that their fans will take it) and Michigan State is in the discussion for best defense in the conference. The IU defense versus MSU's offense? I'll be switching the channel for that one. Hence...50% game.
Northwestern (+10) @ Wisconsin
$330 to win $300
If this is the week where I fall off, this bet will be the symbol for how desperate I was to chase points. That being said, Northwestern is too good to be a ten point dog to anyone in this conference...I think.
Syracuse (+7) @ North Carolina State
$330 to win $300
Georgia Tech (+7) @ BYU
$330 to win $300
Utah State (+7) vs Boise State
$330 to win $300
All of these matchups are equal (except Utah State-Boise, I just like Utah State's home field advantage). Grab the touchdowns before they're gone and you're stuck staring at 6.5.
Texas (+14) vs Oklahoma in Dallas
$330 to win $300
If this really is the right number, then man, this rivalry that once could lay claim to be the best in the country has become really bleak. I don't think things have gotten this bad for Texas...yet.
UCLA (-25.5) vs California
$330 to win $300
What better way to end my dog parade than to end with a bet giving more than three touchdowns! I love this offense and Brett Hundley is a legit Heisman candidate. The Bruins have had an extra couple days to load the cannons, they just have to wait for the buses to bring the fodder into the stadium.
The 10 Point Teaser
Indiana (+19.5)
Texas (+24)
UCLA (-15.5)
$360 to win $300
No, I'm not comfortable with how much I'm depending on Mack Brown this weekend.
7 point teaser
Northwestern (+17)
Syracuse (+14)
$360 to win $300
I was tempted to throw every 7, 10, and 14 point underdog into a 7 point teaser, but then I figured that with my luck, I'd probably find a way to do well against the spread and still lose every teaser (plus I'm doing pretty well this year ATS in college, 41-33, and getting crushed by teasers and parlays, 6-12). Here is the "safest" one in that range of bets...I think.
6 point teaser
Texas A&M (-0.5) @ Mississippi
Georgia (-1.5) vs Missouri
$550 to win $500
Value city.
Parlay
Indiana (+300) to win
Arkansas (+210) to win vs South Carolina
$300 to win $3,400
I'm not sold on Michigan State yet and South Carolina is a bit of a mess without Connor Shaw, and that's even before you get to having to deal with the stream of bullshit that constantly surrounds Jadaveon Clowney (which isn't his fault, it was created by some asshats on ESPN and the like who took a Steve Spurrier quote out of context and ran with it). How can you turn down 11 to 1 odds when you're definitely getting the better offense in one game, and possibly the better one in another? (Arkansas' two headed monster of Alex Collins and Jonathan Williams in the backfield is legitimately terrifying)
Parlay
Indiana (+300) to win
Arkansas (+210) to win
Utah State (+230) to win
$300 to win $12,000
My logic for this bet is the same logic the Republicans have for this government shutdown: Why the hell not? I have very little chance to get exactly what I want, but whatever, I want it. So let's do it.
One last one....
UMass (-4.5) vs Miami (OH)
HAHAHAHA! IT EVEN MOVED IN OUR DIRECTION!
My buddy's reaction to UMass' first week ever as a favorite (-4 vs Miami OH). He speaks the truth. pic.twitter.com/bo8AE0kRPA
— Jacob Weindling (@pollisguy) October 11, 2013
Detroit (-3) @ Cleveland
$420 to win $400
Last week was an aberration for Detroit. When Calvin Johnson is out, they might as well just put on different uniforms because they don't look anything like the Lions. Well, this week Megatron will play, and Brandon Weeden will also play for Cleveland. From a gambling perspective, that's like an inverse Megatron.
Washington @ Dallas OVER 53 points
$330 to win $300
I'm still in awe of last week. Tony Romo played one of the best games I've seen a quarterback play in recent years and I can't imagine how the [redacted] **WHITE COLUMNIST PROTEST** will be able to slow down Dez Bryant and crew. At least that's what I keep telling myself. I'm actually in contention this year in fantasy football (much thanks goes to the aforementioned Dezstravaganza) and this week I have a huge matchup that will put one person in first place and the other one a game up on our seven car pileup that is third place. I already got a big night out of Brandon Marshall, and I need another one out of Dez to have any hope to win. I'm facing Adrian Peterson, Jamaal Charles, and Doug Martin (this is a keeper league and he got the number one pick, and yes, this bastard's team is destroying the rest of us; he also has Jimmy Graham, he must be stopped).
Arizona (+10.5) @ San Francisco
$330 to win $300
The dirty little secret in the 49ers mini-resurgence is that Collin Kaepernick still isn't throwing the ball that well. Enter the best cornerback in the league and an opponent who is more familiar than most with the 49ers concepts, and I think that this game stays annoyingly close for Jim Harbaugh.
Indianapolis (-2.5) @ San Diego
$330 to win $300
For my explanation here, I was thinking about photoshopping Andrew Luck into an "I Believe in Harvey Dent" campaign poster. But then I didn't. Because that's just more work than this is worth. So just imagine that I did, and know that Vegas will write a new line-making commandment after this game.
thou shalt not make Andrew Luck less than 3 a point favorite against a lesser opponent
Denver (-27) vs Jacksonville
$330 to win $300
People point to the second half meltdown against Dallas last week and scream "My God! Denver's defense can't stop anyone!" Well, that's not completely accurate. Remember, Romo was going bonkers, so give him a lot of credit, and things didn't really start falling apart until Wesley Woodyard (the defensive captain and the guy who makes all the calls) and Chris Harris (their only corner who can cover guys out of the slot and my favorite player on the defense) had to leave the game. The defense that was on the field for the 3rd and 4th quarters in Dallas will not be on the field in Denver, at least not without a rash of injuries again. Harris, Woodyard, and underrated run stopper Robert Ayers will all return this Sunday along with Champ Bailey for his first game this season.
**Clears throat for dramatic proclamation**
The Broncos will put this historic line out of reach by halftime.
Halftime score: 42-0 Denver.
Final score: 63-14 Denver.
Jacksonville @ Denver OVER 55 points
$330 to win $300
I mean, didn't you hear my dramatic proclamation?
The 10 Point Teaser
New Orleans (+11.5) @ New England
Detroit (+7)
Indianapolis (+7.5)
$480 to win $400
I don't care if two of Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, and Tom Brady are playing each other, I'm not passing up double digit points with any of them (well...let's see how Peyton Manning's conquest to dominate all that is football goes, this rule might have some loopholes). And yes, I changed the name of this stupid bet because I kept forgetting it, and had to go back to old posts to copy and paste it, then I realized that it was far too much work for literally zero gain (probably less than zero).
6 point teaser
Carolina (+8.5) @ Minnesota
Kansas City (-2) vs Oakland
$550 to win $500
Kansas City's defense is going to teach Terrelle Pryor a painful and valuable lesson this weekend, and the Panthers are flat out better than the Vikings. Their front seven is one of the best units in the leauge, so Carolina is well equipped to deal with the best only weapon in Minny's arsenal. Getting this many points feels like stealing.
6 point teaser
Houston (-2) vs St. Louis
Dallas (PK)
$330 to win $300
What Matt Schaub is doing right now feels like trolling on a savant-like level, but Sam Bradford is the evolutionary Kyle Orton. J.J Watt will take care of this line for me, and Dallas is simply the best team in that crappy division. I can't help but pick them to win outright at home.
Parlay
Indianapolis (-140) to win
Detroit (-135) to win
Dallas (-240) to win
$300 to win $970
I think I'm starting to get the hang of these sneaky money line parlays. Have a good weekend everyone, and good luck.
Total Risked: $9,540
Max Win: $24,570
Max Win Minus Parlays: $8,200
Percentage of Bankroll Risked: 10%
Remaining Bankroll: $81,071
Max Win: $24,570
Max Win Minus Parlays: $8,200
Percentage of Bankroll Risked: 10%
Remaining Bankroll: $81,071
NFL
Last Week: 3-7-1
Season: 28-34-2
NCAA
Last Week: 9-5Season: 47-45
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