Washington @ Stanford OVER 53 points
$550 to win $500
Even though Stanford has a staunch defense, I'm still siding with Keith Price and Kevin Hogan, two of the top (thinking....) fifteen quarterbacks in the country. Hogan might be top five. I think both teams will find a way to score eight touchdowns over the course of sixty minutes.
Maryland @ Florida State OVER 57.5 points
$440 to win $400
The Seminoles are averaging 52 points per game in their last nine home contests, and Jameis Winston looks like he could be the best quarterback in the state of Florida (excluding the Dolphins, but including the Jaguars and Buccaneers).
Florida State (-15) vs Maryland
$330 to win $300
Seriously, have you watched Jameis Winston yet? If not, you should take a peek at this game on Saturday. So far, he's completed 73.6% of his passes for 11.5 yards per attempt (tied for second in the nation with Aaron Murray, and behind Bryce Petty's LOL-able 15 YPA), and a 12 to 2 TD to INT ratio. And oh yeah, he's a frosh. Maryland is excited because they have been dining on cupcakes all year long in their own backyard. This is what we like to call a "wake up game."
Arizona State vs Notre Dame in Dallas OVER 62.5 points
$440 to win $400
Arizona State's up tempo offense is a good fit for the carpet in Dallas, and an even better one for an Irish defense that seems a step slow this season. Tommy Rees is doing a decent job behind center for the Irish, and they should be able to move the ball against a Sun Devil defense that isn't anything special.
Arizona State (-6) vs Notre Dame
$330 to win $300
That being said, Notre Dame can't hang with this offense and this tempo for four quarters.
Missouri (PICK) @ Vanderbilt
$330 to win $300
You can't play a game effectively when real shit like this is surrounding your team.
Mississippi (-3) @ Auburn
$345 to win $300
Last week was a lesson for this young Mississippi offense and this stupid bettor. But I think Ole Miss will bounce back against a dramatically easier defense. Auburn still has not improved against the run, going from allowing 4.9 yards per carry last year (101st) to 4.79 YPC this year (94th). The Rebels rely entirely on their ground attack to set everything else up, so look for Bo Wallace to establish himself and Jeff Scott early, then to finish off the Tigers with his arm in the 4th quarter.
Arkansas @ Florida OVER 43 points
$330 to win $300
After watching roughly one quarter of Florida-Kentucky last week, I have come to the completely informed decision that Jeff Driskel's injury was a good thing for the Gators; Tyler Murphy looks like an upgrade. He's more decisive with the football and still provides a legitimate running threat. Florida wins 35-17.
Oregon @ Colorado OVER 71.5 points
$220 to win $200
This is a vote of confidence in CU's offense (with an obvious hedge in Oregon's upside if I'm incredibly wrong).
Colorado (+40) vs Oregon
$210 to win $200
Here is the real vote of confidence in the Buff's offense. Last week they looked rusty, but I think that had something to do with the extra week off due to the floods in Colorado. The Ducks will still shred the Buff defense, but I think that Paul Richardson and crew will be much crisper than last week, and at the very least, will produce a glorious backdoor cover. Hey, I said in the preseason that I thought they would have value this year because they went from laughingstock bad to just kind of bad. And not many lines would theoretically have more value than the one against the team that consistently produces the biggest lines. I'd be a hypocrite if I didn't take a swing at this.
Miami (-6.5) vs Georgia Tech
$360 to win $300
Miami might really be a top 10 team and a legitimate national championship contender (the Hurricanes, Seminoles, and Tigers make the ACC look pretty damn good this year, at least at the top). Duke Johnson is one of the most dynamic players in the country, they have a defense filled with athletes, and Steven Morris is a very good decision-maker behind center. Meanwhile, the Yellow Jackets were shut down by Virginia Tech last week. That puts some stink on them. I don't care if I have to pay a bit of a premium, anything under a touchdown is worth it.
Ohio State @ Northwestern UNDER 63 points
$330 to win $300
True story: I initially picked over in this game. Then I realized that Northwestern's offense hasn't been as dominant as their scores suggest; they have quite a few defensive and special teams touchdowns. Then I checked the weather: 80% chance of rain. Professional quarterbacks have trouble throwing a wet football. This is going to be ground game between two run first teams, which means a fast moving clock and less possessions. Plus, this could be a let down game for the Buckeyes after last week's huge win at home against Wisconsin. OK, I think I've effectively talked myself in a circle, let's move on.
West Virginia @ Baylor OVER 71.5 points
$330 to win $300
Remember Bryce Petty's LOL-able YPA? If you didn't know who Bryce Petty was before, you do now, and no, he wasn't holding Geno Smith's clipboard last year. Baylor wants to win a national championship, logic and tradition be damned, and the only way that can happen is for them to continue their quest to eliminate the two digit scoring system traditionally employed on most football scoreboards. And yes, they have only played cannon fodder at home so far, but the Bears also average 70 points per game, so at least they're using the cannon fodder effectively.
The "No Way In Hell Can This Lose" 10 point teaser
Clemson (-4.5) @ Syracuse
Florida (-2) vs Arkansas
Florida State (-5)
$480 to win $400
Three top...(thinking about Florida...) 13 teams all giving up less than a touchdown against three not top 25 teams (I don't care what number you arbitrarily put next to Maryland, they're not, Syracuse could be just as good as them). Plus two of these are at home? Me likey.
Kansas City (-3) @ Tennessee
$460 to win $400
I grew up hating this football team through experience, and the Raiders in principle (because my parents despised Oakland due to their experience as kids). Every single year, it seemed like John Elway needed a win in Kansas City to put some distance between them and the rest of the AFC West in November, and every single year, the Chiefs would win. The Broncos would always return the favor in Denver, so to me, this always felt like their biggest rival, especially when Elway had to walk into Kansas City and complete yet another fourth quarter comeback on the way to win his first Super Bowl (the only time these teams ever played in the playoffs). So, what I'm trying to say is that my enthusiasm for this bet kind of hurts. It's my favorite line in the NFL yet. The Chiefs have one of the best defenses in the league and the Titans are starting a new quarterback this week. I don't think this will be close. That being said, eff KC. There's still a big part of me that wants them to lose by 50.
New England (-1) @ Cincinnatti
$440 to win $400
This kind of hurts too. I hate how much value I think there is on this football team. I'm surrounded by their fans, some of the most shortsighted in football, who always try to place the Patriots in a historical context without any knowledge of what happened in the NFL before Bill Belichick came to town ("Chandlah Jones is da best pass rushah in the EN! EF! EL! And Kevin Faulk is a first ballot hall of famah!!" - every WEEI caller ever), so needless to say, sports debates out here can get frustrating sometimes. I hate them even more this season, as it's mostly been a sob story from week one. No Pats fan thought this team was any good at 2-0 because it didn't look like a juggernaut. Well guess what, the Pats have a deep backfield, a fantastic offensive line, a very good defense (which will probably turn into just a good one without Vince Wilfork) that includes a shut down cornerback, and oh, that dude who all of you claim to be the greatest quarterback ever. Boo frickety hoo. 25 fan bases would trade teams with you guys in a heartbeat. The Pats are at worst, the 2nd best team in the AFC.
(The ones that wouldn't trade spots with them: Denver, Green Bay, Indianapolis, San Francisco, Seattle, and New Orleans. I thought about putting Washington in here, but the fact that trading teams would divert from Daniel Snyder's plans is enough to pull the trigger, RGIII isn't good enough to outdo the incompetence of the guy signing his checks.)
Seattle (-3) @ Indianapolis
$440 to win $400
I got incredibly lucky with the Seahawks comeback last week, so why not roll the dice again?
Houston (+6) @ San Francisco
$330 to win $300
In this analogy I am James Woods, Vegas is Brian and Peter, and the candy is the Texans; or at least that's how it feels. But at the same time, the 49ers just don't look as dominant this year. These teams seem nearly identical, and it's just too many points to pass up. OOH! Piece of candy!
Detroit @ Green Bay OVER 55.5 points
$330 to win $300
Aaron Rodgers with two weeks to prepare. Reggie Bush + Megatron. What more do you need?
Denver @ Dallas OVER 58.5 points
$330 to win $300
Until this stops happening, I'll just keep betting over. Man this is fun.
Denver (-9) @ Dallas
$330 to win $300
The Broncos have won fifteen regular season games in a row by more than a touchdown. If they take that streak to sixteen, at worst, I push and get my money back.
6 point teaser
Green Bay (-1) vs Detroit
Denver (-3)
$330 to win $300
This is a QB league, and these teams have the two best going right now.
The "No Way In Hell Can This Lose" 10 point teaser
Denver (+1)
New England (+9)
Atlanta (PICK) vs New York Jets
$360 to win $300
Atlanta has to beat the Jets at home right...right?? This is another NFC team that looks like it peaked last year.
Parlay
Denver (-425) to win
Green Bay (-340) to win
Kansas City (-150) to win
$480 to win $800
This is my favorite "safe" parlay of the season.
Parlay
Denver (-425) to win
Green Bay (-340) to win
Kansas City (-150) to win
Seattle (-145) to win
New England (-1)
$260 to win $2,000
If the Broncos lose on Sunday, you'll probably want to avoid me come Monday.
Total Risked: $9,115
Max Win: $9,800
Max Win Minus Parlays: $7,000
Percentage of Bankroll Risked: 10.12%
Remaining Bankroll: $80,971
Max Win: $9,800
Max Win Minus Parlays: $7,000
Percentage of Bankroll Risked: 10.12%
Remaining Bankroll: $80,971
NFL
Last Week: 7-3
Season: 25-27-1
NCAA
Last Week: 11-6Season: 38-40
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