Congratulations @JManziel2 for putting on a fantastic show. He may not be able to make money off himself but I can. pic.twitter.com/Tp3sKyznkq
— Floyd Mayweather (@FloydMayweather) September 22, 2013
Oklahoma St. @ West Virginia OVER 58 points
$330 to win $300
Oklahoma State can cover this by themselves. If they want to jump into the national championship conversation, they have to start putting some crooked numbers up on the board. This is a good place to start.
Oklahoma (-4) @ Notre Dame
$330 to win $300
Notre Dame's #22 ranking helps to demonstrate the folly of allowing human beings to "objectively" rank 25 out of 125 football teams. The Irish's point differential is +22 against powerhouses like Purdue, Temple, Michigan State, and Michigan (Big Blue's biggest win is over Notre Dame, and they should have lost at home to Akron). The number next to their name is mostly based off of what they accomplished last year and their 3-1 record against the aforementioned underwhelming teams. If I ran the sports world, we wouldn't be allowed to rank anyone until November, and then we wouldn't even use numbers; we would put teams into tiers. For example, who is better? Notre Dame or one of these two teams?
Team A: 2-1 record. +27 PD. Opponents record: 7-4
Team B: 2-1 record. +43 PD. Opponents record: 7-4
The correct answer is: who the fuck knows? Team A is Florida (#20) and team B is Arizona State (unranked) by the way. Slotting these three teams into tiers is much easier than trying to assign specific numbers to them.
Ole Miss @ Alabama OVER 55.5 points
$660 to win $600
Logic would dictate that my largest bet of the year would also be the one I am most certain of. Well, I've already detailed my struggles here, so certainty doesn't really mean much at this point. All I can say is that this is one of my favorite bets in this young season. Maybe the memory of Johnny Manziel carving the Tide up is a little too fresh in my mind, but I just can't envision Bo Wallace and Ole Miss being completely shut down in this game. Alabama will score points, we know that. But I think that the Rebels will hang with them long enough to make this game interesting and to make me some money. However, I am 0 for this season on ATS bets above $400, so take this opinion with a healthy portion of salt.
LSU @ Georgia UNDER 62 points
$330 to win $300
I believe that huge games with a lot of pressure around them inherently favor defenses. Stress is bad for execution and precision, but good for chaos. Both of these defenses are very good at creating the latter, and offenses require the former to consistently move the ball. Georgia's offense is loaded and always has the potential to make any under bet feel like a loser by halftime, but I think that the lack of a reliable deep threat will really hurt the Dawgs in this game. The matchup doesn't feel like it allows for many explosive plays.
Georgia (-2.5) vs LSU
$220 to win $200
Zach Mettenberger has been impressive this season, but man, it's hard to pass on Aaron Murray and Todd Gurley giving up less than a field goal against anyone not coached by a psychotic, genius megalomaniac whose name rhymes with Shtick Zabin. Or Tajh Boyd.
Clemson (-28) vs Wake Forest
$230 to win $200
Like I said: Tajh Boyd. This is another team that needs to put up crooked numbers to get voters' attention (some of whom will subsequently write columns complaining about the lack of sportsmanship in college football, ahhhh, the circle of life).
Florida (-13) @ Kentucky
$315 to win $300
Florida was a missed 38 yard field goal at the end of the game from covering 16.5 at home against Tennessee last week, so this line doesn't scare me away from the Gators one bit, even though Jeff Driskel is out for the year (it's not like he was playing all that great anyway). Tennessee has had a rough start to their season, but they are still a legitimate SEC-caliber team. On the other hand, the Wildcats? More like the Wildkittens.
Miami (-20) @ USF
$220 to win $200
USF is 0-3 and has been bludgeoned 102-37 by McNeese State, Michigan State, and Florida Atlantic. Duke Johnson. Need I say more?
South Carolina (-7) @ UCF
STAY THE EFF AWAY
Vegas is practically begging you to take Spurrier this weekend. Check your pockets, they might have already slipped the ticket in while you weren't looking. Central Florida? Directional schools always suck right? Well, they are 3-0, with two wins over nobodies and one at Penn State; who for all we know might be a nobody as well, or maybe they're a somebody. They were the second best team in the B1G last year, and for all the shit I give that conference, it's still better than most. I know that you're staring at this line but keep scrolling, trust me. This one isn't worth the trouble.
Northern Illinois (-3) @ Purdue
$230 to win $200
Purdue is really bad, especially their defense. Jordan Lynch is good. That is all. (And for any Notre Dame fans who try to make a case on behalf of the Boilermakers, well, as they demonstrated right before Mayweather-Canelo, your team has some suck in them too)
Minnesota (+3) vs Iowa
$280 to win $200
I bought a point just to be safe, but the Gophers are the better team here.
Arizona @ Washington OVER 62 points
$330 to win $300
Both of these teams have mostly romped over cupcakes; the most difficult game between the two is a Huskies win over Boise State the first week of the season. Nothing suggests that either of these offenses is off kilter right now. Granted, both defenses have been awesome, but like I said earlier, Idaho State and UTSA aren't exactly something to get excited about, and these offenses are the ones with the pedigree in this matchup.
Texas A&M @ Arkansas OVER 63 points
$440 to win $400
Both of these defenses are horrible, and Manziel might be the most electrifying college player I have ever seen. Just for fun, here's the top five off the top of my head (for the record, I was born in 1986, so anything before 1995-ish is impossible for me to have an opinion on):
1. Reggie Bush
2. Johnny Manziel
3. Michael Vick
4. Peter Warrick
5. Vince Young
I can't really put into words how disappointing it is that he most likely won't get a chance to play in the SEC Championship this year, or as it's also known, the day after his 21st birthday.
California @ Oregon UNDER 85 points
$220 to win $200
I mean...this is a ridiculous number. I get that it's Oregon, but you don't even need to dip your head to limbo under this line. You could even hold a dunk contest underneath it. Cal is awful, this is all about Oregon, and 12 touchdowns for any one team is absurd...I think...who the hell knows where the ceiling in this offensive era lies.
Arizona State (-5.5) vs USC
$220 to win $200
If USC had a quarterback, this season would be very different; the rest of their offense is extremely talented. Unfortunately, no engine can run with 12,487 overthrown footballs stuck in the gears and a deer in the headlights. Arizona State is a good home team, and I think they'll build off of their second half near-comeback at Stanford last week and play a full 60 minutes.
Utah State @ San Jose St UNDER 62 points
$330 to win $300
It's a short week and I think Utah State's defense is a good bet to keep this under the total.
The "No Way In Hell Can This Lose" 10 point teaser
Florida (-3)
Miami (-10)
Texas A&M (-6)
$240 to win $200
You know what? I actually kind of like this one.
**INTERJECTION FROM THE GAMBLING GODS : Place your life savings on Kentucky (+23), USF (+30), and Arkansas (+26)**
Parlay
LSU @ Georgia UNDER 62 points
Ole Miss @ Alabama OVER 55.5 points
Texas A&M @ Arkansas OVER 63 points
Oklahoma State @ West Virginia OVER 58 points
Oklahoma (-4) @ Notre Dame
$250 to win $6,000
If you couldn't tell already, I grew up in Big 12 country and love watching SEC football.
Minnesota (+3) in London vs Pittsburgh
$220 to win $200
The London game is always weird (read: bad) so taking the points is never a bad idea. Matt Cassel will be starting for Minnesota, which means they've upgraded their quarterback from legitimately terrible to only mostly terrible. Josh Freeman should be starting for them by next week, but the rest of this team is solid. Plus, AP always has the potential to win a game by himself. Some are hailing the "return" (more like the introduction) of Le'Veon Bell as just what the Steelers need. No, what the Steelers need is the same thing they've lacked for the past few years: an offensive line. It doesn't matter who is running in the backfield if the defenders are in their face before they receive the handoff, and Bell isn't exactly fleet of foot.
Minnesota vs Pittsburgh in London UNDER 42.5 points
$330 to win $300
It's about a 9 and 8 hour flight from these two places, respecitvely. Traveling from Massachusetts to Colorado and back the past decade has made me a believer in the power of jetlag.
Seattle (-2.5) @ Houston
$330 to win $300
I know that Vegas wants me to take the Seahawks, but I don't care. Please and thank you. Houston is a 10-6 team masquerading as a front line contender. Seattle is a powerhouse.
Arizona (+3) @ Tampa Bay
$270 to win $200
I lost enough money on North Carolina State last year to learn that Mike Glennon is nothing special at quarterback. Sure, he looks like an NFL player in person, but the guy on his tape doesn't.
Denver vs Philadelphia OVER 58.5 points
$330 to win $300
The Broncos secondary is alarmingly banged up and Peyton Manning is on pace to throw 64 touchdown passes this season. And no, I have not spent any time reminding all my friends who kneel at the altar of Tom Brady that 64 is way more than 50, waaaaaaaaaaaay more....WES WELKER!!! :-D
Miami (+7) @ New Orleans
$330 to win $300
SEVEN! What? Miami's defense is infinitely better than the Saints D, and their underrated offense gets much better when you put Mike Wallace on carpet. The only reason I didn't put more on this is because I'm so incredulous. Hedge yo'self.
6 point teaser
Chicago (+8.5) @ Detroit
Arizona (+8.5)
$220 to win $200
I'd tease whomever is getting points in Bears-Lions. That's destined to be a one score game.
7 point teaser
Minnesota (+10)
Miami (+14)
$390 to win $300
I believe that the only way to rationalize paying the premium on a 7 point teaser is to bring lines up, not down. Otherwise, look at a 6 or 6.5 point tease because anything between 0 and 2.5 is effectively the same number.
The "No Way In Hell Can This Lose" 10 point teaser
Denver (-1.5)
Seattle (+7.5)
Indianapolis (+0.5) @ Jacksonville
$480 to win $400
I like the idea of pairing the two best teams in the NFL with one facing the unequivocal worst team in the league.
Parlay
Arizona (+110) to win
Seattle (-130) to win
Minnesota (+130) to win
$200 to win $1,500
Good luck this weekend folks.
Total Risked: $8,275
Max Win: $14,400
Max Win Minus Parlays: $6,900
Percentage of Bankroll Risked: 9.33%
Remaining Bankroll: $79,241
Max Win: $14,400
Max Win Minus Parlays: $6,900
Percentage of Bankroll Risked: 9.33%
Remaining Bankroll: $79,241
NFL
Last Week: 4-8
Season: 18-24-1
NCAA
Last Week: 7-7Season: 27-34
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