USC (-7) vs Utah St.
$420 to win $400
Utah State is still transitioning to their new regime and I think last week's performance loosened the shackles on USC's offense. Both teams seem to be in very different places right now and any offense that includes Marquis Lee is going to put up points. If Utah State goes down 21-0 in the first half, that might be game over.
Missouri @ Indiana OVER 71.5 points
$330 to win $300
Both offenses love to push the tempo and neither defense is particularly good. Either bet the over or don't bet this line at all.
Missouri (-1) @ Indiana
$165 to win $150
SEC vs B1G. I have to obey my gambling laws, even if I'm not sold on the pick (If the SEC were Saturday Night Live, Mizzou would be one of the "featuring" cast members...Alabama is Bill Hader...LSU is Bobby Moynihan...you know what, let's put a stop to this before it becomes its own column).
Florida International @ Louisville OVER 56.5 points
$220 to win $200
This is nothing more than a vote of confidence in Teddy Bridgewater's arm.
Vanderbilt (-31.5) @ UMass
$220 to win $200
Speaking as the only human being on this planet who gambles on college football AND willingly watches UMass games, I can tell you that this line is way too low. I love my alma mater, but man, we are all sorts of terrible. Other than New Mexico State, I don't know who is worse than we are and Vandy is a competent SEC team (Nasim Pedrad? OK, I'll stop). They may cover this line by halftime.
Florida (-16.5) vs Tennessee
$220 to win $200
In last year's contest, Florida gained 336 yds rushing on 7.8 yards per carry. Tennessee was able to hang around because their offense happened to feature two NFL receivers and a competent quarterback. This year, that same Florida rushing attack exists, but Tennessee has a very different offense. Their offensive line is very good and they can run the ball with Rajion Neal, but throwing it is another issue altogether. The problem is that Florida is one of the best teams against the run in the country (2.27 YPC against this year and 2.98 last year, both rank 6th in the nation). The Volunteers cannot play from behind and I think that after two weeks to prepare, Florida will make them do just that. Lay the points.
Notre Dame (-6) vs Michigan St.
$220 to win $200
Notre Dame must be fuming from last week's near-catastrophe against Purdue. This offense is better than that and I think they will showcase their talents against one of the worst 3-0 teams in recent memory.
Texas (-5) vs Kansas St.
$220 to win $200
My gut lead me to USC last week, and now it leads me to Mack Brown. I think Texas kind of rights the ship this week. And besides, how good can KState be if they couldn't even cover at home against UMass?
Stanford (-7) vs Arizona St.
$220 to win $200
I hate it when unqualified people play psychiatrist, but when your fortunes rest on the actions of a bunch of volatile 18-22 year old guys, sometimes you have to try. Last week's reftastrophe in Tuscon handed the Sun Devils a win they probably didn't deserve, and you have to wonder where their heads are after winning a game like that. Stanford has a grinding, patient style that wears teams down, and I can't help but wonder if Arizona State will have the discipline necessary to hang with the Cardinal for four quarters on the road.
Army (+3.5) vs Wake Forest
$230 to win $200
Last week was the most Army football I had watched in a while and I came away very impressed with their defense. Wake Forest still might have a losing record if they played in the MAC. Army is the better team here. Take the points.
Utah @ BYU UNDER 61.5 points
$220 to win $200
Rivalry games tend to take a harsher toll on the players and the play tends to slow down a bit more in the 4th quarter. Plus, both defenses are solid. Neither team will eclipse three touchdowns here.
New Mexico St. @ UCLA OVER 67.5
$330 to win $300
If you doubt the potential of Brett Hundley and UCLA's offense, go back and watch that 3rd quarter against Nebraska. They're going to be scraping bits and pieces of New Mexico State off of Los Angeles for years to come after Saturday night. This is going to be ugly.
Parlay
Notre Dame (-6)
USC (-7)
Missouri @ Indiana OVER 71.5
New Mexico St. @ UCLA OVER 67.5
$300 to win $4,000
If it looks like a fish bet, then...no...think happy thoughts. This is a winner...right?
Lastly, since I think I'm going to leave teasers to the NFL this year, we'll introduce a new feature to this post because, well, this is fake money, and who gives a shit, right?
The "No Way In Hell Can This Lose" 10 Point Teaser
Texas A&M (-19) vs SMU
Florida (-6.5)
Vanderbilt (-21.5)
$180 to win $150
Teasers are the sirens of gambling; they look so incredibly tempting on the surface, but once you actually venture over to them, they'll wreck you (for example, you can hit 5 games out of 6 on two 3 team teasers and still lose money, kind of stupid right?). The 10 point teaser is the most tempting of all because, well, it's 10 friggin' points. And theoretically, there are at least three games every week that should be easy wins when you push the line two scores in your direction. So here ya go. Let's move on to the Never Fucking running the football ever again League (or at least it seems that way this season).
San Diego (+3) @ Tennessee
$330 to win $300
Aside from quarterback, you can argue that these teams are at best, equal (I happen to think that San Diego is better, obviously). But as much flack as Phillip Rivers has taken over the past couple of years, there isn't a chance in hell that you would take Jake Locker over him. This is San Diego or no bet.
$300 to win $345
I don't need the 2.5 points here, I'm comfortable taking the better team to win outright. At the beginning of the season, I thought Buffalo would be one of those decent 6-10 teams. Now, I'm much higher on them. There's no reason they cannot be a player in the inevitably crappy AFC Wild Card race. Get used to seeing them here.
Green Bay (-3) @ Cincinnati
$330 to win $300
Speaking of gambling rules, only 3 points with Aaron Rodgers versus an inferior team on a short week? Why thank you.
Washington (-1) vs Detroit
$220 to win $200
I'm going to bet on this stupid team until I win. To say they are in my head is an understatement. I passed on Lesean McCoy to grab Alfred Morris in my fantasy football draft and now I'm trying to find any way I can to justify it. C'mon RGIII, bail me out.
Cleveland @ Minnesota UNDER 40.5 points
$220 to win $200
A new offense in the Metrodome? I'm going to go out on a limb and guess that there will be some communication problems for the Browns on Sunday. Cleveland might not score a touchdown in this game, or in any other games for that matter.
Chicago (-2.5) @ Pittsburgh
$230 to win $200
Odds on the team to appear most often in this blog this season:
Steelers: (-350)
Bills: (+200)
Broncos: (+250)
Packers: (+450)
Browns: (+500)
Field: (+550)
Saints: (+600)
Seahawks at home: (+99999999999999999999)
I guess what I'm trying to say is that Pittsburgh sucks and not enough people have realized that yet. And after seeing them lay 20 points this week against the Jaguars, I don't see how Seattle's tremendous home advantage is going to have any gambling value this season.
Jacksonville (+20) @ Seattle
$110 to win $100
The last eight 20 point dogs all covered. Plus it kind of blows my mind to see this number next to an NFL team. I don't want to make this bet, but I have no choice in the matter.
The "No Way In Hell Can This Lose" 10 Point Teaser
Jacksonville (+30)
Green Bay (+7)
Denver (-6) vs Oakland
$180 to win $150
I had to fit the Broncos in here somehow.
6 Point Teaser
Buffalo (+8.5)
Baltimore (+8.5) vs Houston
$110 to win $100
Baltimore has to show us something at some point right?
6 Point Teaser
New England (-1.5) vs Tampa Bay
Atlanta (+8) @ Miami
$110 to win $100
Stupid, undisciplined teams don't beat Bill Belichick in Foxborough, and I can't envision a world in which Atlanta-Miami doesn't wind up being a one score game.
Parlay
Buffalo (+125) to win
San Diego (+140) to win
$350 to win $1,500
**Homer Simpson Voice***
Mmmmmm...value....
Parlay
Buffalo (+125) to win
San Diego (+140) to win
Chicago (-135) to win
Green Bay (-150) to win
$215 to win $3,000
Go big or go home. Good luck folks.
Total Risked: $6,020
Max Win: $13,245
Max Win Minus Parlays: $4,745
Percentage of Bankroll Risked: 6.76%
Remaining Bankroll: $83,081
NFL
Last Week: 6-8
Season: 14-16-1
NCAA
Last Week: 6-8
Season: 20-27
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