Football Friday

Pats -5.5 and under 49.5 is a nice little teaser, you know, if you're in to those things. Under 43.5 is solid too.
— Jacob Weindling (@pollisguy) September 13, 2013

Well, we're off to a good start this week after last week's mediocre showing that saw me lose $134 total (in the money on this blog, remember, I don't have this much money to piss around, my real bets are substantially less, but still proportional to the ones listed here). Thank goodness for the NFL or that loss would have been much much bigger.

I went 1-1 last night, but as you can probably tell by now, I almost always bet more on straight up lines than teasers (because ultimately, they're stupid, even if they are absurdly tempting). So this means that I have made money so far! Last week, college football kicked my ass but I feel much more confident for this weekend. Although, if you want to fade my picks after last week's debacle, I can't argue with the strategy. Let's get to it.

UCLA @ Nebraska OVER 70 points
$550 to win $500
Let's start with my biggest bet of the season. The vaunted blackshirts of Nebraska disappeared not long after the 62-36 thumping CU put on them back in 2001. UCLA can put up points and their defense is a bend but don't break type. One team will put up 40, guaranteed. The other will probably not be far behind.

Mississippi @ Texas OVER 66 points
$330 to win $300
550 rushing yards against isn't something that gets fixed in a week. I could not have been more wrong about the Longhorns this year. I still don't know what to expect from their offense, but needless to say, I'm out on their defense. Ole Miss' sneakily high powered offense should have no problem going up and down the field. Feels like they're a good bet for 50 points this week.

Bowling Green @ Indiana OVER 63 points
$330 to win $300
OK, so I can't claim complete originality on this pick. Kelly in Vegas pointed me towards this one (I strongly recommend you check out her hottie threesome picks on YouTube every week if for nothing more than the nice view), but she raises a good point: Indiana's defense is a laughingstock. Bowling Green isn't a juggernaut, but they've put up 34 and 41 on Tulsa and Kent State, respectively, so we know that they're not completely inept (although getting shut down by IU would prove that statement to be incredibly false).

UCLA (+3) @ Nebraska
$230 to win $200
I enjoy taking the superior team plus the points.

Tennessee @ Oregon OVER 73.5 points
$220 to win $200
I've decided that I'm going to bet every Oregon over until they don't cover. This team is in a league of its own when it comes to creating as many possessions as possible.

Michigan (-38) vs Akron
$220 to win $200
How bad is Akron? Lose to UMass bad. I really want to put more on this game, but numbers like this leave room for the easiest backdoor covers. Let's just hope that Michigan is up by 52 when the second stringers take the field.

Texas A&M (+8.5) vs Alabama
$220 to win $200
Part of me didn't even want to bet this game just so that I could enjoy one of the most highly anticipated football games in recent memory (college or pro). But then I saw this line, and I couldn't help myself. Anytime you can get more than a touchdown with the home team AND the best player (who just so happens to play the most important position on the field), well, it's hard to pass up.

Central Florida @ Penn State UNDER 50 points 
$220 to win $200
Big 10 offenses, blah blah blah. I also wonder how prepared UCF will be to face a real defense after their "games" against Akron and FIU.

USC (-13.5) vs Boston College
$165 to win $150
This is just a hunch really. I can't imagine USC playing worse than last week when they only mustered 7 points against a feeble Washington State team. I say Marquis Lee gets more involved and USC somewhat resembles USC this week...I think.

Vanderbilt (+14.5) @ South Carolina
$165 to win $150
South Carolina is a little banged up and their offense struggles against Vandy (they scored 17 points last year, and 21 points in each of the previous two seasons). If this is 13.5 it's a no bet, but over two TD's makes this too good to pass up.

Stanford @ Army UNDER 51.5 points 
$165 to win $150
This game kicks off at noon ET, which means that it wil be 9 am at kickoff as far as the internal clocks of the Stanford players are concerned. I think they come out a little sluggish in the first half.

Stanford @ Army UNDER 28 points in the 1st Half
$165 to win $150
I mean, I just said it.

Army (+18) vs Stanford in the 1st Half
$165 to win $150
One more for good measure.

Parlay
UCLA (+3)
UCLA @ Nebraska OVER 70 points
Bowling Green @ Indiana OVER 63 points
Mississippi @ Texas OVER 66 points
$240 to win $3,500
After going a little crazy in the first couple weeks of football, it's time to dial these bets back a bit. I still like to have one a week just so my favorite bets have more upside, but this will be the only parlay or tease in college for me this week, let's shift gears to the pros now.

New York Jets @ New England UNDER 43.5
$220 to win $200
I mean, I tweeted it. A tweet is indisputable proof, right? Whatever, I bet this last night and I won. Nanny nanny boo boo.

Philadelphia (-7) vs San Diego
$330 to win $300
So after blowing another eminently winnable game (we'll just call this "Pulling a Charger" from now on), they have to travel east to play the early game against Chip Kelly's offense? Oh man, San Diego, I'm so sorry (wait, no I'm not, I'm going to squeal with glee as Philly pummels them into oblivion this weekend).

Chicago (-6.5) vs Minnesota
$210 to win $200
After Adrian Peterson's opening touch went 78 yards for a touchdown, the Vikings offense basically vanished against an OK defense in Detroit. This week they will be facing much more than an OK defense. It's hard to figure out which teams in the NFC are going to be abjectly terrible this season, but after what Christian Ponder did in game one, you have to figure that the Vikings are one of the leading contenders to be horrible.

Tennessee (+9.5) @ Houston
$220 to win $200
Keep sleeping on the Titans, Vegas. They're going to be covering machines this season if you keep giving them a touchdown or more. Plus, Houston's offense has never been that intimidating anyways.

Washington (+7.5) @ Green Bay
$220 to win $200
This is an overreaction to Monday Night Football. It was something of a perfect storm for the Eagles. RGIII's knee was still at the forefront of his mind and this lead to him not stepping into any of his throws. Plus, no one had ever seen Chip Kelly's NFL offense on tape, so they were able to surprise them with a few things. With a week to look at the video and mentally prepare, I think we will see a much better RGIII this weekend. We have to, or this bet is a lost cause, because the rest of Washington's roster is the picture of an 8-8 team.

Detroit (-2.5) @ Arizona
$210 to win $200
Arizona is a sneaky pick this year, but I think Vegas is outsmarting itself with this line. The Lions are a much better team.

Seattle (-2.5) vs San Francisco
$220 to win $200
I went back and forth on this one a hundred times. I feel the same way about this game that I do about Alabama-A&M, but at the same time, it's the NFL. One of the main reasons that it's so wildly popular is because of gambling. So let's take a stab and see if we can get lucky. I mean, can you really argue forcefully against either team in this game? Flip a coin and have some fun.

New Orleans (-4) @ Tampa Bay
$220 to win $200
Remember when I said Minny was a contender to be the worst team in the NFC? Well, after literally handing a win to the Jets last week, I think the Bucs have to take that title as of right now. The rest of America will probably be on the Saints too, but whatever (I probably shouldn't so flippant considering this strategy worked out fantastically for me last week when I rode the public favorite, Houston, like a rented mule).

Denver @ New York Giants OVER 56
$220 to win $200
No Champ, a banged up Woodyard, and still no Von Miller makes the Broncos defense look a little shaky this week. I expect a shootout in the Manning Bowl.

Denver (-4) @ New York Giants
$220 to win $200
Yes. I'm a homer. But I also root for what might be the best team in the NFL, so at least I'm justified in my homerism.

6 Point Teaser
New England (-5.5) vs New York Jets
New York Jets @ New England UNDER 49.5
$110 to win $100
See? I'm really an honest guy. Here's a loser.

6 Point Teaser
Baltimore (-1) vs Cleveland
Philadelphia (-1) vs San Diego
$495 to win $450
How can you say no to this? It's like the gambling equivalent of a puppy looking up at you with sad eyes.

6 Point Teaser
Chicago (-0.5)
Cincinnati (-1) vs Pittsburgh
$220 to win $200
Another one that just looks too good to pass up. Pittsburgh is providing the clearest demonstration of the fact that if you don't have an offensive line, you don't have an offense. Geno Atkins could probably go 1 on 5 with this sad group of nobodies for 60 minutes and still manage a handful of sacks.

Parlay
Denver (-200) to win
Detroit (-130) to win
New Orleans (-185) to win
Chicago (-270) to win
Philadelphia (-7)
$200 to win $2,000
You really just need to look at this parlay to get an idea of what against the spread game I like the most. Short weeks suck, especially for shitty teams like the Chargers. That's it for this week's installment. Good luck folks, and have a good weekend.

Total Risked: $6,700
Max Win: $11,200
Max Win Minus Parlays: $5,700
Percentage of Bankroll Risked: 7.37%
Remaining Bankroll: $84,156

NCAA
Last Week: 3-12
Season: 14-19

NFL
Last Week: 8-8-1