Football Friday Part 1

Hitting four team parlays has a way of perking up your Saturday night. Last week, I was toasting to Zach Mettenberger and LSU as they closed out a win that netted me my first big payday of the season. This week will probably be much less fun, as betting on the NFL usually amounts to flipping a coin. Luckily, the first week lines are usually where you will find the most value. The problem is that actually picking the diamonds out of the rough is much easier said than done. That being said, let's get to the picks. Today will feature the NFL only, and tomorrow we'll get to their modestly compensated counterparts.

Tennessee (+7) @ Pittsburgh
$330 to win $300
Speaking of value, this game! There is a big difference between Big Ben and Jake Locker, but tell me, would you rather have Pittsburgh's ten other guys on offense or Tennessee's? I think you're nuts if you don't take Chris Johnson and company. Take the points, this one is going down to the wire.

Houston (-5.5) @ San Diego
$330 to win $300
Ladies and gentlemen, our first lemming game of the young gambling season! So long as this number stays under 6, everyone and their mother will be on the Texans. The public is right on this one; the Chargers have some stink on them.

New Orleans (-3) vs Atlanta
$345 to win $300
Take all of the anger and resentment inside Johnny Manziel right now, multiply it by two, mature it a decade or two, then multiply it by nineteen. Why nineteen? That's the number of games that Drew Brees and Sean Peyton believe were taken from them by Roger Goodell last season. Remember the Patriots after spygate? This is the same kind of anger, and they finally get to let it out this weekend. First team to 40 wins.

Atlanta @ New Orleans OVER 55.5 points
$220 to win $200
I kind of have to after that last sentence.

Tampa Bay (-4.5) @ New York Jets
$200 to win $200
First gambling rule of the 2013-2014 season: bet against the Jets every time they get less than a touchdown. The NFL looks like it is going to have a giant middle class this year. I even think a team like Jacksonville could sneak their way to seven wins. There are only two teams that look abjectly terrible from top to bottom: Rex Ryan's crew  and Oakland. There's a reason he is the only coach with negative odds in the first to be fired pool (well, several, but his current team being horrible is one of the driving factors behind the decision to make him the favorite).

Cincinnati (+3) @ Chicago
$230 to win $200
Vegas says these teams are equal and I disagree. Geno Atkins is going to wreak havoc against this awful offensive line, and Andy Dalton and Jay Cutler are two sides of the same coin, except Dalton has a much better supporting cast.

Arizona (+4.5) @ St. Louis
$200 to win $200
I honestly don't see much of a difference between these two teams. If anything, Arizona should get the edge because of Patrick Peterson and Larry Fitzgerald.

Washington (-4.5) vs Philadelphia
$200 to win $200
"Chip Kelley is going to take over the NFL!"
"How?"
"He runs plays really really fast! No one has seen anything like it before!"
"Wrong. And wrong. It's here, it's on tape, no one will be surprised and his offensive line is awful."

Jacksonville (+4.5) vs Kansas City
$200 to win $200
Everyone loves Kansas City, but seems to forget they were the worst team in the league last year. Jacksonville has an underrated offensive line and a legitimate down field threat in Cecil Shorts. I think this will be a three point game.

Denver (-7) vs Baltimore
$230 to win $200
Everybody loves Baltimore. I get it. Any good team with a touchdown or more is tough to pass up. And if this game took place next week, I'd probably bet the Ravens. The NFL is so maniacally focused on week to week preparation that the Broncos would have to just circle that date on the calendar and wait for the day they can refocus their mindset on enacting some revenge. But since this is the first game of the season, this week of preparation began for Peyton and the rest of the Broncos the second the NFL released the schedule. There is a lot of turnover on this Baltimore defense, and while I do love their defensive line, I still think that the Broncos offensive line and Peyton's mastery at getting the ball out quickly can mitigate that advantage a bit. I am fairly confident that the Broncos offense will score, but I am less confident in Joe Flacco's ability now that he has lost two of his four best weapons. 31-21 feels about right. And if you have a problem with this pick, yeah, I am a homer. There isn't a chance in hell I am going to pick against my team the first game after the debacle against these purple-clad thieves back in January. It's just money after all; laundry hangs in your closet forever.

Parlay
Cincinnati (+125) to win
New Orleans (-160) to win
Tennessee (+250) to win
$169 to win $2,000
Sometimes it's nice to watch a game and not have to do any addition or subtraction and just root for the pure outcome.

Parlay
Cincinnati (+3)
Tampa Bay (-4.5)
New Orleans (-3)
Houston (-5.5)
$170 to win $2,000
If I hit either of these parlays, expect at least one big heat check next week.

Parlay
New England (-520) to win @ Buffalo
Seattle (-190) to win @ Carolina
Houston (-210) to win
$300 to win $500
I think that there's some nice value on this parlay.

7 point Teaser
New York Giants (+10) @ Dallas
Green Bay (+12) @ San Francisco
$130 to win $100
You could put any number in front of any team and I would still probably stick both of these matchups in a tease and try to get as many points as possible.

7 point Teaser
Cincinnati (+10) @ Chicago
Tennessee (+14) @ Pittsburgh
$130 to win $100

6 point Teaser
Denver (-1) vs Baltimore
Arizona (+10.5) @ St. Louis
$110 to win $100

6 point Teaser
Washington (+1.5) vs Philadelphia
Houston (+0.5) @ San Diego
$110 to win $100


Total Risked: $3,604
Max Win: $7,200
Max Win Minus Parlays: $2,700
Percentage of Bankroll Risked: 3.8%
Remaining Bankroll: $94,810

Last Week
NCAA
Record: 11-7
Profit: $2,745