The title says it all, let's get to it.
NL MVP
Odds are you have an issue with this pick, but that's because there are roughly 182 deserving candidates in the very mediocre National League (and that's probably being nice). Goldy's wOBA ranks 3rd in the NL (behind a couple of Rockies, Cargo and Cuddyer), he's 4th in ISO, 2nd in wRC+, and he's thrown in 9 stolen bases to boot. Most people wrote the Diamondbacks off after the Justin Upton trade, but Goldy's emergence has carried an otherwise mediocre offense and underachieving pitching staff to a first place spot at the all star break. There are guys with better numbers, but given the first half struggles so many of their key players went through, if you took Goldy off this team, they'd be looking up at the Padres right now.
Apologies to: Carlos Gonzalez (the winner by pure #'s in my book, 1st in wOBA, 1st in ISO, 1st in SLG%, 3rd in WAR per Fangraphs, 6th in SB, 1st in outfield assists), Buster Posey (basically has Goldy's #'s), David Wright, Carlos Gomez, Yadier Molina, Joey Votto, Shin-Soo Choo, Michael Cuddyer, Andrew McCutchen.
Who will win MVP: If the Giants get back in it, Buster Posey probably is the favorite. But I'm going to be a homer here and say that Cargo, Cuddyer, Tulo, and their 3 man rotation will keep the Rockies in the race for the worst division in baseball. MVP voters get tired of voting for the same consistently great guys, and love to find a reason to challenge the status quo (ie: Steve Nash's 2 MVPs). Cargo is stating his case as the best all around player in baseball (pretty well, I might add), and if he continues to put up gaudy power numbers, voters will look at him as long as the Rockies are relevant (other candidates for "Best in the World" status: Posey, Trout, Yadier Molina, Cano, Votto, Longoria, and McCutchen. Carlos Gomez needs to do this for more than just a half season, and Miggy isn't on the list because he can't play D, he's just the best hitter alive).
Dark Horse Pick: Hanley Ramirez
NL Cy Young
Adam Wainwright
He's striking out 8 and walking less than 1 per 9 innings. He's 2nd in FIP and 1st in WAR. There are only a couple of other pitchers who are having the year that this man is having. This is the second easiest pick of all the awards.
Apologies to: Matt Harvey, Clayton Kershaw
Who will win Cy: There are some candidates who are a notch below the level of these three through the first half, but that's why we play 162. Matt Latos, Shelby Miller, Jordan Zimmerman, and Stephen Strasburg all have enough time to get back in to this race. Latos is the best pick outside the top three for my money (as far as performance), but I'm going with Strasburg. Awards are voted on by journalists, which means that story lines matter. Washington should play a much better 2nd half and he will most likely be at the forefront of this resurgence. After all the drama surrounding his brief career, this seems like the next step for the best young pitcher since Mark Prior.
Dark Horse Pick: Fransisco Liriano
NL Rookie
Shelby Miller
Put down your pitchforks Dodger fans. 104 IP > 161 PA. Miller is 4th in the NL in K/9 innings, 7th in FIP, and he's only walked 29 batters all year (a 3.8-1 K-BB ratio). Simply put, he's been one of the 10 best pitchers in the National League.
Apologies to: Hyun Jin-Ryu, Jose Fernandez, Yasiel Puig
Who will win ROY: Puig. This vote favors hitters, and it helps that he's basically been the hitting version of Old Hoss Radbourn for the past month or so. He has a fun name, he plays in the right market on the right team in the right year, and he gives old people an excuse to talk about Bo Jackson. He's the golden boy. A 22.4 K% versus 4.2 BB%, plus a .472 BABIP pretty much proves that he will slow down (which will happen once the league figures out how to pitch backwards to him), but this is Puig's award to lose.
Dark Horse Pick: No one, it will be one of these four.
AL MVP
Miguel Cabrera
In a season where the two best players in baseball are in the same league, it's crazy to think that the MVP race is pretty clear, but it is. Despite Chris Davis' charge on the not-single season HR record (Bonds and the steroid era happened, get over it) and his silly .717 SLG% at the break, Miggy is the MVP. His slash line of .365/.458/.674 all would be career highs as of this moment. Same with his OPS+ of 201 (meaning he's 101% better than league average). When the best hitter on the planet is having his best season ever, you give him the MVP, no questions asked. Sorry Chris Davis. Hit 74 and we'll talk.
Apologies to: Chris Davis, Mike Trout
Who will win MVP: Miggy. Davis isn't hitting 74.
Dark Horse Pick: Superman. He signs with the Yankees in the middle of August and bats 1.000 the rest of the way (What? It's more likely than anyone currently in the league beating out Miggy, Davis, or Trout).
AL Cy Young
Max Scherzer
The day I make an argument on behalf of a pitcher because of wins is the day I want my family to send me to a nice farm out in the country. The fact that Scherzer leads the majors in wins is meaningless, but being 2nd in the AL in K/9 and 2nd in FIP, well, that's pretty damn impressive. You can make a decent case for any of these guys, but I'm leaning towards the guy who dominates what he can control (BB/K/HR) because he has some spotty defense behind him.
Apologies to: Felix Hernandez, Chris Sale, Yu Darvish, Derek Holland, Justin Masterson
Who will win Cy: I don't see any reason Yu Darvish can't keep this 12 K/9 rate, and Texas should be in a battle all summer long. Voters have already given Felix his due, Sale's whole team is for sale so he should drop out of people's minds, and Holland and Masterson aren't sexy picks (even if Holland does have the best Harry Caray impression this side of Will Ferrell). This leaves Scherzer, Yu, and a 2nd half surge from someone just on the outside of the race (Verlander?). I'm picking the guy with the best stuff.
Dark Horse Pick: Bartolo Colon
AL Rookie of the Year
Jose Iglesias
He wins over the other candidates because of his terrific defense, but can we skip this award for a year? Iglesias has turned a .414 BABIP into a .461 SLG% (plus his OBP is about 100 points higher than any season he had in the minors). Basically, a great deal of his hitting success has to do with infield hits, seeing eye singles, and texas leaguers. Those have a way of disappearing as the season wears on. Still, he deserves the award right now because the rest of this crop of AL rookies is pathetic. The combined WAR of all AL rookie hitters is 6.8 (out of 16 players). For pitchers, it's 11 (out of 38 players). Or to put it in simpler terms, 1 half season of 54 AL rookies (or 2+ baseball teams) = 1 half season for Miguel Cabrera, Mike Trout, Felix Hernandez, and Felix Doubront. Hell, Shelby Miller, Jose Fernandez, Hyun Jin-Ryu, and Trevor Rosenthal have amassed a greater WAR than all AL rookie hitters.
Apologies to: Dan Straily, Leonys Martin
Who will win ROY: Zzzzzzzz....oh, um, Iglesias, sure.
Dark Horse Pick: Anybody with less than 130 AB or 50 IP, and less than 45 days on an active roster who has full control over their arms and legs.
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