This was supposed to be an aside in my last post but it turned into this...
Based on the two Memorial Cup games that I watched (really like between 1 and 1.5 while sitting in various bars around New York),
they should clearly draft Mackinnon. He's overwhelming. He's like a
cross of Patrick Kane, Alex Ovechkin, and Henrik Zetterberg. He was
everywhere. That being said, Jones looked great too. He's a (sorely
needed) steadying presence on the ice because he's so confident and
skilled with the puck. It makes it easier for everyone else to set up
for the rush. All the smart hockey people really like both of them
(Jonathan Drouin too).
If I were Jopatrick Roykic, I would start by putting Paul
Statsny on the market to see what defensive help I could get in return for a very solid two way forward. If I
could land a good, NHL ready prospect + a decent vet, I'd pull the
trigger regardless of what else happens. The Avs are overcrowded at
center and Statsny is the obvious guy to go (plus this forces them to
resign O'Reilly when his contract is up in 2 years if Duchene is their
only other top 2 center).
Now, this lessens the Avs' glut at center and from the outside looking in, makes it more likely that they will draft Mackinnon (Duchene-Mackinnon-O'Reilly has a nice ring to it...). That fog of doubt gives the Avs leverage. That's when I would call Florida (#2 pick) and ask if they want to trade up to get their guy so I can
pick up some extra picks or a couple prospects on the way down. Then
I'd take their offer out to the market and see if someone wants to do
something really stupid. If I don't get the sun, the moon, and the known
universe, I'd try to trade back with Florida, then draft whomever fell
to #2. If it's Mackinnon, great! The Avalanche have a very good, young
offense with one exception: they lack an elite goal scorer. Well, here's
their guy. If it's Jones, fantastic! The only defensemen they have who
can be characterized as "somewhat reliable" are Erik Johnson, Ryan
Wilson, and mayyyyybe Tyson Barrie. Jones adds a new dimension to the
team and gives the Avs the captain on the power play that they've
desperately been seeking.
If I couldn't trade back, I
would take Jones. Mackinnon will probably score 50 goals someday, but this is
the Chris Stewart trade for the Avalanche all over again. I was fine with Stewart for Erik
Johnson (minus Shattenkirk, it was dumb at the time and even dumber now since Shattenkirk is better than EJ). If
Stewart scored 50 goals the next season, the Avalanche still would have
no shot at a Stanley Cup because of their pitiful defense (and this remains true today, just flip Stewart and Mackinnon, Johnson and Jones). That's what makes the risk worth taking.
When
you look at their core components, all four remaining teams in the
playoffs have one thing in common (hint: it has to do with Duncan
Keith, Drew Doughty, Kris Letang, and Zdeno Chara). The 2000-2001
Avalanche didn't turn into a great team until they traded for Rob Blake
(in his prime). This team desperately needs a 30 minute a night guy on the blue line.
Either way, the Avs cannot be faulted for who they take regardless of how everyone's career shakes out (no one blames Portland for drafting Oden), and even if they wind up with the 2nd best player, odds are he'll still be pretty good. I like my plan though. They still get a generational talent and pick up some badly needed organizational depth in the process. But I'm not Jopatrick Roykic. I'm just some guy. And there's probably a good reason for that.
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