Football Friday

4-13. Four and thirt-freaking-teen. That was my record last week. After picking games at a 52% clip last year, this year I find myself at an atrocious "you honestly have to be trying to be this bad" 36%. So this week we're debuting a new section to the picks column. This will only apply to college football for now since that is where all the damage lies. I call these the Costanza picks in honor of the second greatest television character of all time (read the rest of the post to find out who is number one). See the video below for where I'm going with this.

The following games are the ones I immediately gravitated towards. So what do we do about this? I pulled a Costanza. Under each bet I have provided what I think will happen and then I bet against my instincts. I have no choice at this point. My gambling record is the equivalent of being an unemployed middle aged man living with his parents.

Baylor @ West Virginia OVER 82.5
Eighty two points??? EIGHTY TWO? No way this goes over. No. Freaking. Way.

Georgia (-14) vs Tennessee
Tennessee with the points is juicy. I really like this team. They might be the most underrated team in the country. So obviously that means that Georgia is going to win by a thousand.

Illinois (PK) vs Penn St
Penn State has to have some pride at this point and Illinois is a hot mess. The Nittany Lions will walk into Champaign and impose their will on an inferior team.

Colorado (+20) vs UCLA
Last week, CU had an exhilarating comeback against Washington State. Well, UCLA is not Washington State. I don't care if this is being played in Boulder, Los Angeles, Beijing, or the moon. CU is one of the worst teams in the country. Betting them getting anything less than 3 touchdowns is a fools errand.

Florida State (-17) @ South Florida
Quality home team + more than 2 touchdowns vs. a team that has been very impressive against a very soft schedule = value.

The following bets are ones I could not bring myself to bet against. I just like these too much. This is why they are below the Costanza bets. Remember, everything is listed in order of confidence and these are the games I am most confident in. Hence, they should be below the ones where I go against my instinct.

Texas Tech (-3) @ Iowa State
Texas Tech is ridiculously undervalued. I'm going to be screaming this all year until someone listens.

Duke @ Wake Forest UNDER 60.5
Both teams have terrible run defenses but neither will be able to take advantage of it because the Blue Devils and Demon Deacons rank 98th and 105th in yards per carry. There's also a 40% chance of rain in Winston-Salem tomorrow which will hurt the passing game more. I love this under far too much. It probably should be at the top of the Costanza bets.

Missouri (+3) @ Central Florida
Huh? Um...yeah...wait...how? Really? But...well...I mean...seriously???

Clemson (-7) @ Boston College
So wait, I get to bet my college football heroin addiction AND bet against BC? Life is too damn good.

On to the parlays and teasers, no Costanza theory with these just yet

(7 point teaser)
Clemson (PK), Duke @ Wake Forest UNDER 67.5
Mmmmm...college football heroin...

(6 point teaser)
West Virginia (-5), Northwestern (-5) vs Indiana
Someone spiked the Geno Smith kool-aid. I am absolutely, positively, hammered. I want to bet West Virginia during the weeks they're not even playing. And UMass knocked out Indiana's quarterback for the season a couple weeks ago. You're welcome Northwestern. 

(Parlay)
South Florida (+600), Rice (+260) vs Houston
It's a free bet so why the hell not? This pays out at +2400. Well that's it for the college bets, if I have another terrible week I'm going to snap like the greatest TV character of all time and find a bookie in Vegas to torment.

Cincinnati (-2.5) @ Jacksonville

Cincinnati is the NFL's version of Texas Tech for me. I said they would finish ahead of Pittsburgh in the AFC North and I'm sticking to it (ALERT: bet your first born child on the Steelers going undefeated from here on out).

Arizona (-6) vs Miami

When Kevin Kolb is the best quarterback in a game, you know the other team is stinky. Like gorgonzola cheese left out in the rain for three months stinky. 2012 is weird. Arizona is actually good. Atlanta and Houston are the Super Bowl favorites. We just spent three weeks watching a billion dollar industry eviscerate the integrity of its product over a dispute that amounted to less than 1% of annual revenue. Add in the fact that a knuckleballer is about to win the NL Cy Young and I'm starting to think that the Mayans may have a point.  

San Francisco @ New York Jets UNDER 41.5

First team to 5 field goals wins.

On to the teasers and parlays

(6 point teaser)
Atlanta (-1) vs Carolina, New York Giants (+7) @ Philadelphia
This looks too obvious to me. Perhaps I should Costanza this one...nah. I'll just let you bet against me. Congratulations on your profit.

(6 point teaser)
Arizona (PK), Houston (-6) vs Tennessee
I was able to unload CJ1.1K this week from my fantasy team (my derisive nickname for Chris Johnson. The 1.1 is his yards per carry this year). I have never had an STD but I can imagine that this is probably what it feels like when someone's herpes finally disappears. Upgrading from CJ1.1K to Matt Forte (I had to give up Andrew Luck as an 11th round keeper in the process) has made me excessively happy. I feel like I just had a tumor removed.

And before we go, I need to get this rant out about my beloved Broncos.

Everyone and their mother is jumping all over each other to throw dirt on Peyton Manning's illustrious career.  Scouts have pointed out the fact that he has lost some zip on his passes and cannot throw the deep ball the way he once did. Pundits like Bill Simmons are squealing with glee every time he throws an incomplete pass. It's pretty astounding to watch everyone discount 12 seasons of excellence after 3 so-so games. Can we all calm the eff down for a second?

Peyton is less than a year removed from having a doctor go to town on his neck with a power sander. To expect him to be 100% at this point is about as realistic as expecting Steve Jobs to rise from his grave and drop an album with Lil' Wayne. Also, if you haven't noticed, the Broncos are making a transition from Tebow's Division-II option offense to Peyton's spread 'em out, hurry up offense. If you expect that to be a completely smooth transition then you also probably think that Snoop Dogg's first reggae album is going to be as good as Bob Marley's greatest hits.

That's 2 memes with punny names. Don't think I won't go for a third one. I'm a sick, sick bastard.

I'm not saying that Peyton is going to revert back to the mid-2000s version but can we at least wait like, half a season before we start making grand platitudes about his performance? The Broncos are in the process of one of the most radical transitions any team has made in NFL history. To expect the 2012 Broncos to look exactly like the 2007 Colts is absolute insanity. But I guess this is what we have to deal with in today's media culture that prioritizes speed above accuracy. Good luck this week my fellow degens. May the Costanza be with you.

**Sunday Update**
(6 point teaser)
New York Jets (+10), Cincinnati (+7), Arizona (+2), Atlanta (-1) vs Carolina, Denver (-0.5) vs Oakland, Green Bay (-1.5) vs New Orleans
I got 5 games wrong yesterday, 4 of them were picks against what I wanted to do and the other was a backdoor cover by Wake Forest to go over by a half point with 40 seconds left. This pays out at +600, so why not? I'm feeling good and these are the teams I am most confident in today. Let's let it ride. 

Last Week
College: 2-9
NFL: 2-4
Season
College: 17-34-1
NFL: 11-14-0