Football Friday

So after a very successful 2011 campaign in which I hit a little more than 52% of my college bets (to put that figure in context, the best sharps in the world average 54% for their lifetime), this year I seem to have the same problem as my Minutemen in their first year of D-1 football: I'm hilariously inept and teams feel the need to throw their equipment managers into pads just to make me feel like I have a chance. Nothing has worked for me this year. Throw a lot of games against the spread against the wall and see what sticks? Sorry, that wall is made of teflon. Parlays and teasers? At least I'm winning some moral victories by hitting bits and pieces of them. Hopefully this week will include more than moral victories and I can build off of last week's strong NFL showing. Vamos!

Miami @ Georgia Tech UNDER 61 points
Everyone is in love with Georgia Tech after putting up 115 points in their last two games against mighty Presbyterian and the annual juggernaut that is Virginia; but I'm not buying it. At least not to the extent that the oddsmakers have bought it. 61 points Vegas? Really? Last year these two teams combined for 31 in a Miami win. Two years ago they totaled 45. This year, Georgia Tech scored 17 points in a loss to Virginia Tech and Miami got lambasted by Kansas State, losing by 39. Those are the only games this year where they have played quality teams. Both the Yellow Jackets and Hurricanes can put up points, but 61 just seems like far too much.

Missouri (+10) @ South Carolina
Mizzou was down 4 heading into the 4th quarter against Georgia before turnovers unraveled everything last week. This Saturday, James Franklin and company will face a South Carolina team that is not on par with Georgia. The Gamecocks are dealing with an injured quarterback in Connor Shaw and a banged up secondary. If I had a better start to the season I might even be tempted to bet the Tigers to win outright at +300. Instead, I'll keep the training wheels on and just take the points.

Notre Dame (-4.5) vs Michigan
Denard Robinson has killed Notre Dame during his time at Michigan so this bet seems a bit counter-intuitive. But this year, there feels like there is something off with the Wolverines. Robinson had over 400 total yards of offense and 4 touchdowns at home two weeks ago and Michigan only beat Air Force by 6. When your best player goes ballistic and you barely hold on against a vastly inferior team, something is wrong. Notre Dame looks like a legitimate top 15 team. Michigan? I'm not convinced yet.

Army @ Wake Forest UNDER 56 point
The 89th and 117th ranked scoring offenses this year have THIS over/under? Oooookie dokie.Time to count my money.

UCLA (-7) vs Oregon St.
Hold up! Stop the train! Please! I know that I'm late for the bandwagon but let me jump on! There's gotta be some room somewhere! (You know what this means. Bet all of your worldly possessions on Oregon State).

Boise St. (-6.5) vs BYU
So last week I crushed the Thursday night game. This week? Ugh. Boise is a mess. After being the most reliable cover in college football the last near decade, it might be time to take a 1 year hiatus from driving the blue turf bandwagon.

Clemson (+14.5) @ Florida St.
I literally cannot help myself. I have a problem. Betting Clemson with the points is more automatic than breathing for me. Maybe next week I'll kick this habit, although, to borrow a quote from the greatest TV show of all time...

Tomorrow man? What kind of dope fiend be talkin about tomorrow? Tomorrow ain't shit. Today Johnny, today. 

On to the Parlays and Teasers

(7 point tease)
Miami @ Georgia Tech UNDER 68 points, Arkansas (PK) vs Rutgers
I know that Arkansas has now replaced Ole Miss as the laughingstock of the SEC...but it's still the SEC. They should be able to win a home game against a middling Big East opponent right? Right???

(6 point tease)
Boise (-0.5), UCLA (-1.5)
When BYU went for 2 after scoring what looked to be the game tying touchdown last night I was overjoyed and dismayed at the same time. Overjoyed because I was one stop away from covering half this tease, dismayed because I knew that it pretty much clinched yet another ATS loss for me. Given my luck, Oregon State will go for the game winning 2 point conversion after tying it up at the buzzer on a reverse followed by a statue of liberty flea flicker hail mary capped off by a hook and ladder for the score. Or to put it more succinctly, something like this...except all in one play.

(10 point tease)
USC (-6.5) vs Cal, West Virginia (-16.5) vs Maryland, Missouri (+20)
USC and West Virginia can put up a lot of points in a very short amount of time. Especially at home. Needless to say, that's what I'm banking on this week.

(Parlay)
USC (-700), North Carolina (-700) vs East Carolina, Georgia Tech (-500), Miami @ GT UNDER 62 points, Missouri (+300)
Remember when I said I wanted to bet Mizzou to win outright? Instead of dropping a sack and putting my money where my mouth is, why not use my free bet this week and attach some heavy favorites to it along with my favorite bet at +1000? Why not? I have as much to lose as Amanda Bynes and Lindsay Lohan combined at this point (thought: that's an apropos title for the porno both will inevitably have to star in to pay their legal bills. I better get a lawyer on the phone and trademark this ASAP).

NY Jets (-2) @ Miami
Based on preseason predictions, Miami's drubbing against Oakland last week means one of two things:

1. Miami is better than we thought
2. Oakland is worse than we thought

If there is anything I have learned as a Bronco fan in the last decade, it's that the Raiders competency should never be taken for granted. Rex Ryan is going to bring a house of horrors to Ryan Tannehil's back yard. If you have the Jets defense on your fantasy team, start them this week.

Pittsburgh (-4) @ Oakland
See number 2 in the previous paragraph...and number 2 below to back up my assertion in the previous paragraph.

Since I can't bet against the spread in the NFL to save my life, on to the teasers

(6 point teaser)
San Francisco (-1) @ Minnesota, Chicago (-1.5) vs Saint Louis
I look forward to being one of roughly 72,985,670 people holding this ticket this weekend.

(7 point teaser)
Atlanta (+10) @ San Diego, New England (+10) @ Baltimore
Take advantage of this while you can. Even though it's a teaser, this might be the only chance you will get all year to bet these two teams getting double digit points.

(6 point teaser)
Philadelphia @ Arizona OVER 37 points, New England @ Baltimore UNDER 55 points
Philly and Arizona seems destined to be one of those games where each team has 28 turnovers. That should be good enough to push it over 37. Pats and Ravens should be much more defensive than we anticipate. The addition of Chandler Jones and Dont'a Hightower has taken New England's defense to another level this year.

New Orleans (-2.5) vs Kansas City, Denver (+8) vs Houston
Let's just call this the "shaky home team" teaser. I feel like I'm getting value but I can see a lot of things going wrong in both games. Particularly for the Broncos. Their run defense last year was suspect and they have yet to face a team that will expose how much they really have progressed. Enter the best running back in the NFL (yes, even with a healthy Adrian Peterson, Foster is more dynamic and is a better receiver). Crap.

Good luck this week degens, and go Broncos (I would say go Buffs and go Minutemen but I'm still trying to fend off the psychosis that is creeping in because of the fact that I root for the two worst programs in college football today. I should probably stay away from even mentioning them before it gets any...OH LOOK THERE'S AN ORANGE BUNNY).

Last Week

College: 4-8-1

NFL: 6-3

Season

College: 15-25-1

NFL: 9-10-0