Rutgers (+7.5) @ USF
Yeah I know this looks shady, listing my favorite pick that covered last night but it's true. Check this tweet right as the game started. I was all in on Rutgers this week for two reasons. First, USF had a hard fought battle against Nevada and I felt that a short week would hurt them more than Rutgers who was coming off of a cupcake win at home against Howard. Secondly, it's the Big East, everyone sucks. If you find any matchup on a short week where the spread is a touchdown or more, just take the friggin points.
Ohio St. (-16.5) vs California
Cody Fajardo, a solid but unspectacular running quarterback for Nevada, ran for 97 yards and averaged 4.6 yards per carry against California in Week 1. Braxton Miller should have some fun this week. Check the video below for my rationale behind this bet, I rest my case.
USC (-9.5) @ Stanford
I've gone from loving Stanford -25.5 in Week 1 to thinking I'm stealing with this game. I can't tell if that says more about me or more about Stanford (don't answer that).
Missouri (-6) vs Arizona St.
James Franklin and the Tigers are coming off a hard fought game in which the score suggested a much more lopsided contest than what actually occurred. They were right in the game with Georgia last week until some late giveaways turned it into a rout. This week I expect a much more focused (and pissed off) Mizzou to come out and attack an inferior Arizona State squad that has yet to play a serious opponent.
Texas Tech (-32.5) vs New Mexico
I'm betting Texas Tech until they don't cover. And this big number doesn't scare me against a New Mexico team who's only notoriety is that they have been the worst team in all of college football over the past 5 years.
Alabama (-20) @ Arkansas
I'm going to put on my polisci cap and use a simple formula I was taught to analyze international relations.
FACT: Arkansas lost to Louisiana Lafayette last week.
FACT: Tyler Wilson isn't playing this weekend.
CONCLUSION: Alabama is gonna put a whoopin' on the Razorbacks.
UConn (-3) @ Maryland
I guess UConn is the bizarro Texas Tech for me. I'll just keep betting them until I finally win.
On to the Parlays and Teasers
(7 point teaser)
Rutgers (+14.5), USC (-2.5)
This looks real tasty doesn't it?
(7 point teaser)
Ohio St. (-9.5), Texas Tech (-25.5)
Same here. Love me some Braxton Miller and Seth Doege this week.
(6 point teaser)
Mizzou (PK), Ohio (PK) @ Marshall
Marshall is garbage and Ohio is maybe the best team in the MAC. Which I guess is like being the youngest person at a Tea Party rally. It might count for something in your head, but you're still collecting Social Security like everyone else there.
(Parlay)
Ohio St. (-16.5), Rutgers (+250), USC (-9.5)
This was another free bet Sportsbook gave me at +1700. Why the hell not right?
(Parlay)
Ohio St. (-13.5), Rutgers (+10.5), USC (-6.5), Texas A&M (-9.5) @ SMU
Unless I really like every line in a 3+ team, 6 point teaser, I think that there is very little value in going with more than 2 teams in a teaser. If you want to go for a big bet with a lot of teams, I recommend buying a few points to get past key numbers (for the non degenerates out there, these numbers are 3, 6, 7, 10, 14, 17, 20, 21, etc...you get the picture). I bought 3 points and got -170 odds on all these bets. This parlay is paid out at +510, a much better deal than the +180 you get on 3 team teasers.
Baltimore (+3) @ Philadelphia
See this? Know what that is? That's game over. With less than 2 minutes to go and Philly down by 6, Cleveland literally held the game in their hands. Then the Browns did what Cleveland sports are best at and turned a sure win into a loss by dropping the ball and allowing a touchdown on the very next play. Philly had no business getting out of Cleveland with a W. The Iggles are an average team (no matter what Vince Young tells you) and Baltimore is anything but. If Lee Evans could catch or if Billy Cundiff could kick, we might be talking about the defending Super Bowl champions. Instead, both choked and blew Baltimore's shot at a title and now somehow they are underdogs against an inferior team. I bought a point to push this up to a key number and had to lay -145 but it's worth it. I love this bet. Which means that you should take out a second mortgage and put it on the Eagles this weekend.
Denver @ Atlanta OVER 51.5
Atlanta's defense is overrated and will be without their top cornerback. You can throw on the Broncos, and Matt Ryan will. Final score is 34-31. Winner will be whomever has the ball last.Chicago @ Green Bay UNDER 51
More fishiness, that's OK. Here's proof I was on this one too. I had a simple equation to evaluate this game:
Short week + familiar teams - Greg Jennings = not a lot of points.
Oakland (-2.5) @ Miami
Miami is garbage and Oakland should be much improved this week as Carson Palmer's favorite target, Denarius Moore returns to the lineup. After Miami stumbles through yet another lost season, is there anyone who would even consider going on Hard Knocks anymore? What the hell is the upside? The 2 biggest storylines we got out of the show are that Ochocinco is crazy (which, for those who did not know this, welcome back from your 10 and a half year nap) and that you can figure out someone's snap count by watching HBO.
(6 point teaser)
Baltimore (+8), Houston (-1) @ Jacksonville
Told you I liked Baltimore this week. Give me one reason to not bet Houston to beat Jacksonville.
(6 point teaser)
Cincinnati (-1) vs Cleveland, NY Giants (-1) vs Tampa Bay
I call this my "looks good on paper but inevitably one of these teams will choke because this is what these teams do" bet.
(6 point teaser)
Baltimore (+8), Houston (-1), Indianapolis (+7.5) vs Minnesota
Even after their Week 1 thrashing, I still am a big fan of the Colts this year. The upgrade from Dan "I piss my pants and run out of the back of the endzone" Orlovsky to Andrew Luck should give them a handful of extra wins. This should be one of them but I don't have the balls to bet them outright. I guess I have a little more Orlovsky in me than I would like to admit. Just for fun let's watch that infamous play again.
(Parlay)
NY Jets (+190) @ Pittsburgh, Tennessee (+230) vs San Diego
In my book, these are the two most likely underdogs to win outright. Pittsburgh is overrated (they will finish behind Cincy this year, mark it down) and San Diego looked painfully mediocre last week. They have gone from bombing it downfield to Vincent Jackson and Malcolm Floyd to checkdown city. This pays out at +850. Best of luck my fellow degens.
**Sunday Update**
(7 point teaser)
Baltimore (+10)/San Francisco (PK) vs Detroit
When I saw the Ravens fall to +3 I couldn't help but want to make another bet with it. Let's hope that the 49ers don't have any surprises in store tonight. The undisciplined Lions will have trouble with Jim Harbaugh's lot.
Last Week
College: 5-9-0
NFL: 3-7-0
Season
College: 11-17-0
NFL: 3-7-0
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