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Friday, September 7, 2012

Football Friday

So remember last week when some jackass said that he loved home teams? Sadly, that man is no longer with us. This week's iteration of Jacob murdered him in cold blood and tossed his remains into the Charles River. I have 21 total bets between the NFL and NCAA and only 7 involve home teams. What can I say? My only consistency is my remarkable ability to remain inconsistent. After a subpar start to the season (thankfully, I still finished in the black due to a little bit of luck in the Virginia Tech-Georgia Tech contest), I'm ready to go to war this week. Let's get to the picks, starting with college. As always, bets are listed in order of confidence.

Florida (-1) @ Texas A&M
Georgia (-2) @ Missouri 
You really think that these SEC stalwarts are just going to let two newbies waltz right in to America's best conference without a painful initiation? Mizzou and Texas A&M are going to learn very quickly that the wide open play of the Big 12 is difficult to find in a conference filled with linebackers who can outrun wide receivers.

Clemson vs. Ball St. UNDER 65.5
My first instinct was to bet the over in this game. My initial thought was "I can easily see Clemson winning a high scoring contest. Something like a 42-24 type game is very possible." Then the voice of reason that occasionally resides in the back of my head interjected with "Hey dummy, that would JUST hit the over." After doing some basic math, it became clear that this total was too high. Clemson's defense is good and they will inevitably do something stupid on offense to shoot themselves in the foot. I know this because I have lost a large amount of money betting on them and watching them pull the same stunts time and time again. They are my gambling kryptonite.

Texas Tech (-18) @ Texas St.
Texas Tech is the most underrated team in the Big 12. Seth Doege should have a big senior year behind center and the secondary is rock-solid. That is a good combination to cover a big spread against a barely D-1 team (I will declare undying allegiance to the Church of Scientology before I ever utter the words, FBS or FCS. The NCAA is stupid).

Vanderbilt (-3) @ Northwestern
If you're new to this blog (which considering that 5 people read last week's installment, odds are, you are), then I'll let you in on one of my most cherished gambling secrets. SEC vs Big 10 = alllllllllll da moneys on the SEC.


Nebraska (-5.5) @ UCLA
UCLA's defense was ranked 108th in yards per carry last year. That loud banging sound you hear is Rex Burkhead and Taylor Martinez repeatedly high fiving each other. 

Central Michigan (+21) vs Michigan St.
Michigan St. has a young quarterback and is still working on a new offense. When they needed a play last year, they put the ball in the hands of Kirk Cousins. Now Le'Veon Bell carries the load. Because they are making less big plays in the passing game and are more methodical in their offense, they should score much less than they did last year. Central Michigan is not a doormat. They can play, and 21 points at home is a lot.

USC (-26) @ Syracuse 
Check out the highlights from USC's demolition of Hawaii last week.


I'm guessing that they're going to enjoy playing on the fast track at the Carrier Dome this week.

Utah @ Utah St. UNDER 52.5
Rivalry games are always close and Utah's defense is very good. This feels like a 21-17 type game.

Oklahoma St. (-11) @ Arizona
Here's a gambling rule I just made up: when a team drops 84 points, you bet them the next week.


Wisconsin (-7) @ Oregon St.
Like Ball St. last week, I just can't help myself with Wisky.

Parlays and Teasers

(6 point teaser)
Texas Tech (-12), Utah (-1)
I bet Utah over 8 wins this year, why would I shy away now?

(Parlay)
Wake Forest (+330) vs North Carolina, Penn St. (+310) @ Virginia
My betting site gives you free bets every once in a while. So why the hell not use one and take a swing at this at +1600? Everyone is falling over each other to pour dirt on Penn State. This week is one of those "manhood" games. Penn State's pride as a program was decimated during the Sandusky scandal. Week 1 against Ohio was supposed to be step 1 on their journey to restore that pride (oops). I expect them to come out swinging this week simply because that is all you can do when your back is pressed firmly against the wall.

(7 point teaser)
South Carolina (-14) vs East Carolina, UConn (+10.5) vs NC State, Penn St. +17
Marcus Lattimore is a monster and even though it was against my lowly Minutemen, UConn still looked like a really good team last week.
Seattle (-3) @ Arizona
Every year there are lines in Week 1 that we look back at and go "what the hell was Vegas smoking and how can I get some?" (OK so maybe just me on the last part). This will be one of them. Seattle is going to surprise a lot of people this year and Arizona...well...I'm sure they'll try their hardest.

New England (-6) @ Tennessee
God I hate my friends and their incredibly talented football team. Why is this less than 7? Have people forgotten what Bill Belichick does to young quarterbacks? It's like a SAW film in football form.

NY Giants (-4) vs Dallas
Whoops.


Buffalo (+3) @ NY Jets
The Bills will finish ahead of the Sanchbowjets this year. Mark it down.

Bengals (+6) @ Baltimore
People love to sleep on Andy Dalton. My memory might be a little off but he went like 75,000 and 2 in his tenure at TCU. All the kid does is win. A.J. Green is special, and BenJarvus Green-Ellis is going to make a difference this year. Cincinnati will be good.

San Diego (+1) @ Oakland
As you may know, I am a die hard Bronco fan. If you slit me open, a river of orange would come pouring out of my veins. I also care far too much about fantasy football (most likely due to the fact that I have never won and the only time I reached the title game, my girlfriend beat me down). This year my starting quarterback and tight end are Phillip Rivers and Antonio Gates. If I win my first ever title because of them, I might actually become physically ill. Oh well, might as well bet them too, right? Anyone? Bueller?

Parlays and Teasers

(7 point teaser)
Chicago (-3) vs Indianapolis, Philadelphia (-2.5) @ Cleveland
Mmmmm...good defenses vs. rookie quarterbacks in their debut...


(6 point teaser)
Houston (-7) vs Miami, Tampa Bay (+8.5) vs Carolina
...mmmm...another good defense vs. another rookie quarterback. Oh, and in spite of all of Cam's heroics last year, the Panthers still sucked. I will gladly take more than a touchdown with Tampa at home.

(Parlay)
Chicago (-500), New England (-6), New Orleans (-7.5) vs Washington, Seattle (-145)
The Saints have spent the last several months hearing nothing other than what big cheaters they are and how they are a disgrace to the game. I'm guessing there is a bit of pent up anger as well as some wounded pride in that locker room. I expect the Saints to unleash hell on a hapless Washington secondary on Sunday.

Most Receiving Yards in Week 1: Desean Jackson (+2000)
Now that he's officially trying, he's my favorite long shot to lead the league in receiving yards this week. All he needs to do is get behind the defense a couple times. Best of luck with your picks this week my fellow degens.

College Record last week: 6-8

**Sunday Morning Update**

(6 point teaser)
Patriots (-0.5), Seahawks (+3)
Makes no sense to not tease my two favorite bets this week. 

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