IT'S BAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAACK. While much of the country is focused on next week's NFL kickoff, this degenerate is irrationally excited for the start of college football season. Betting on college is oh so much easier than the crapshoot that is the NFL since bookmakers are less focused on it and there are more games to bet. Let's run down my favorite bets for week 1. Just as a refresher, the bets are listed in order of confidence with the ones at the top being my favorites. On to the picks!
Virginia Tech (-7) vs Georgia Tech
Get used to seeing these guys in this column. Logan Thomas is going to light up the ACC this year and challenge Matt Barkley and Landry Jones for the title of best quarterback in the nation. Georgia Tech's option attack will simply not be enough to keep up with the Hokies this week.
Georgia (-37.5) vs Buffalo
Mark this down. Buffalo will not reach the endzone in this game. These early season cupcakes are easy cannon fodder for teams that have national title aspirations. And with the way the system is set up, teams like Georgia need to blow out teams like Buffalo in order to keep up with preseason favorites like USC and LSU.
North Carolina State (+3) vs Tennessee
The Vols were a sexy preseason sleeper pick, then Da'Rick Rogers channeled his inner honey badger and was kicked off the team. Now Tennessee is down an NFL wide receiver and their sexiness has decreased to Christina Ricci levels (still solid, but not someone you're going to lose your mind over). Mike Glennon is coming off one of the best years for any quarterback in NC State history and is looking to establish himself as a first round NFL talent. This game against a quality SEC opponent is big in the eyes of pro scouts and I expect Glennon to impress. Take the points.
Stanford (-25.5) vs San Jose State
See: Georgia, re: cannon fodder. San Jose State is integrating 7 new starters into a defense that ranked 85th in scoring last year. I don't expect that much turnover to improve their chances of raising that figure, especially early in the season. Andrew Luck may be gone but Stepfan Taylor and his 1,300 yards and his 5.5 yards per carry are back along with 5 other starters on offense. Look for Stanford to try to make a statement that they are still a title threat by spreading bits and pieces of San Jose State all over the bay area.
Boise St. (+7) @ Michigan St.
Everyone is focusing on how Boise lost most of their team but Michigan State isn't exactly the same team from last year either. Kirk Cousins and B.J. Cunningham have moved on to bigger and better things so both teams will be experimenting with new players. This has "1 score game" written all over it so I'll take whomever is getting the points. Also, how many times in the last 5 years have you seen Boise getting points? Enjoy it while you can.
West Virginia (-25) vs Marshall
Geno White is one of the best quarterbacks in the country. Tayvon Austin and Stedman Bailey are two of the best receivers in the country. Using my super skills in logic, I am going to go out on a limb and suggest that West Virginia will score a lot of points this year. How good the defense will be remains to be seen. But I feel pretty confident in saying that the Mountaineers will run up and down the field against a depleted (and crappy) Marshall defense.
Alabama (-14) vs Michigan
Everyone is going to jump all over Denard Robinson and the first underrated, now, overrated Wolverines because, well, 14 points is a lot. But this is the SEC. And this is Alabama. Think they're going to miss Trent Richardson? How much did they miss Mark Ingram? Eddie Lacy will pick up the slack in Tuscaloosa and AJ McCarron is primed to take a big leap forward this year. Alabama's defense is still staunch but their offense this year should be better than it was in 2011.
Iowa St. (+2) vs Tulsa
I have a general rule of thumb, if a Big 12 team is getting points at home against a Conference USA team...take the freakin' points.
Ball St. (-3) vs Eastern Michigan
Because for some odd reason I have an affinity towards betting on Ball State. Also, if you couldn't already tell, I'm a fan of home teams, especially in week 1.
UMass (+24.5) @ UConn
My alma mater's first ever D-1 game. If I didn't bet them I would probably be forced to light my degree on fire.
On to the parlays and teasers (refresher: you have to hit every game right to win the bet)
(7 point tease)
Boise (+14), Virginia Tech (-0.5)
This feels like I'm stealing something here.
(7 point tease)
Georgia (-30.5), West Virginia (-18), Stanford (-18.5)
I call this my "Hey remember us? No? Well we're going to beat the shit out of these little guys so you do" teaser.
(6 point tease)
Colorado (-0.5) vs Colorado St., Penn St. (-0.5) vs. Ohio, Iowa St (+8)
CU should improve in year 2 of the Embree regime and should handle CSU easily. The only thing that Colorado State students are proficient at is bagging groceries (sorry, I was attending games in Boulder from the time I was 4 years old. I can't help myself). I have a hard time seeing Penn State drop their first game to a team from the MAC, especially in Happy Valley where the crowd will be going absolutely ballistic.
(Parlay)
Boise State, Virginia Tech, Penn State, Washington, North Carolina State
All these bets are on the money line (meaning I don't give up points, they just have to win) and it pays +1660 (meaning that if you bet $100, you win $1,600). Best of luck to all you fellow degens out there! Enjoy the happiest time of the year.
2011 Record: 80-68-5
Thursday, August 30, 2012
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