*For the non-degens, if a bet is -110, that means that you have to bet $110 to win $100. If a bet is +110, that means you have to bet $100 to win $110.
Tom Brady OVER 2.5 TD Passes
Earlier this week Brady said that given how difficult it is to win in the NFL that this could easily be his last Super Bowl. I expect him to play as if this is his last Super Bowl and have a big game in honor of the late Myra Kraft. He knows that a big performance on Sunday will go a long way in cementing his legacy as the best big game quarterback of all time.
BenJarvis Green-Ellis OVER 47.5 Rushing Yards
With all the talk about the defensive resurgence of the Giants, one fact has gotten lost in the hysteria: they were lousy against the run and still are. Football outsiders has them ranked 21st against the run this season behind juggernauts like the Redskins, Dolphins, and Titans. Brady is an absolute murderer on play-action and the only way that play-action works is if the defense is legitimately concerned about stopping the run. Look for an above average day for the Law Firm.
Wes Welker OVER 78.5 Receiving Yards
Wes Welker OVER 6.5 Receptions
Wes Welker +5.5 Receiving Yards vs. Hakeem Nicks
Wes Welker Super Bowl MVP (+1200)
Gronk's high ankle sprain is a problem and I doubt he will be very effective on Sunday especially since the Giants will undoubtedly be targeting him after they basically game planned to kill Kyle Williams two weeks ago. Add in the fact that the Giants have a phenomenal pass rush and Brady knows that he will have to get the ball out quickly. Normally I would be all over Gronk under this scenario but as I've already stated, high ankle sprains are no joke. I think Wes Welker becomes the beneficiary of a ton of Tom Brady quick passes on Sunday. If I'm wrong I will be eating ramen noodles until the start of next season as these are my biggest bets of the weekend.
Deion Branch Longest Reception OVER 17.5 Yards
Remember my point about Brady on the play action? I think Branch is the beneficiary of one of those big play action passes.
Eli Manning OVER 38.5 Passing Attempts
I think that Vince Wilfork and company will establish the line of scrimmage in the first quarter and the Giants will end up almost abandoning the run altogether by the second half. I could easily see Eli end up with something like 34/50 for 420 yards (hehe...420, wow I'm mature).
Ahmad Bradshaw UNDER 62.5 Rushing Yards
The Giants will be playing on a fast track with fast receivers against a terrible secondary. Any run play is a win for the Patriots defense and Tom Coughlin is smart enough to know this. Get ready for a Madden-style shootout.
Brandon Jacobs UNDER 7.5 Rushing Attempts
See a pattern developing here?
Victor Cruz (Obligatory #UMass) Longest Reception OVER 27.5 Yards
Victor Cruz OVER 5.5 Receptions
See number 11 tackling his own guy? Kinda weird right? You're probably thinking to yourself "that guy looks like he's never played defense before in his life." Well, congratulations because you're right. Julian Edelman had never played on defense before this year. And now he's going to be covering Victor Cruz in the biggest game of his life. Salsa dances for everybody!
Deron Williams +2.5 Points & Assists vs. Brandon Jacobs Rushing Yards
If I could I would bet the number of letters in Deron Williams' name versus Brandon Jacobs rushing yards. This is going to be a passing game; there is no place for a 1970's-style running back on Sunday.
Who will the winning coach thank first? Coaching Staff/Owner (+400)
Given that the Patriots are playing for Myra Kraft this seems like almost a lock for Bill Belichick. Tom Coughlin is also very close with John Mara and undoubtedly feels very appreciative as Mara hung tough with Coughlin even as everyone has called for his head on an almost weekly basis since he took over as head coach.
Color of the Gatorade dumped on the winning coach? Red (+800)
Because red gatorade is the best, period.
Kelly Clarkson -84.5 pounds vs Madonna.
This is the lock of the century considering Kelly Clarkson inherited all of the weight Charles Barkley lost and Madonna will undoubtedly want to prove to Lady Gaga that she was the original crazy blonde stick figure.
Number of times Peyton Manning is shown on camera -1.5 vs Bob Kraft
The Myra Kraft story is heartwarming but our media doesn't go for heartwarming. They like conflict and NBC will spend every second of down time trying to manufacture a rivalry between Eli and Peyton as Peyton munches on shrimp cocktail from Jim Irsay's box.
Will there be punches thrown between Peyton and Jim Irsay? Yes (+10000)
Only because this would be the greatest moment in the history of everything.
Will Al Michaels make a subtle reference to the spread? Yes (-200)
This is a lock as well since the NFL thrives off of their image of "under no circumstances can you bet on games even though we know that one of the main reasons for our popularity is gambling so we'll quietly print the point spreads in the paper and pretend that those have nothing to do with gambling." What a bizarre society we live in.
Patriots -2.5 (-125) and OVER 54
1 through 55, the Giants are the better team. But the Patriots have Tom Brady and he is Superman for all intents and purposes. He's already tied my beloved John Elway for most Super Bowl appearances ever. He knows that if he wins this game that he really only needs one more Super Bowl win to end the debate of who is the greatest quarterback of all time. I think he gets it done. Pats win 31-27.
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