Well that was fun. I made fun of myself for being a crappy NFL handicapper last week and I immediately ran the table en route to a 15-0 week which doubles as my best week ever. Perhaps there's some magic in this blog after all...nah, I probably just got lucky. Houston and Cincy covered the over on the last play of the game, New Orleans almost choked their game away at the last instant, and the Patriots came agonizingly close to losing to Rex Grossman (silver lining: it makes me much less scared for when my Broncos face them this week). I feel uneasy looking at the lines this week which means lots and lots of teasers and very few bets against the spread. On to this week's picks.
Jacksonville +14 (bought 1/2 point) @ Atlanta
When I said very few bets against the spread, I meant just this one. Jacksonville's biggest deficiency is throwing the football and luckily for them, they have a good matchup this week. Brent Grimes and Kelvin Hayden are doubtful for Atlanta so their secondary is thin. The biggest problem with Blaine Gabbert is that he wets himself like a scared chihuahua any time a defensive lineman breaks through the line of scrimmage. Luckily for Gabbert, Atlanta is 26th in the league in total sacks so he probably won't have to wear a diaper beneath his uniform for this game. Combined with the short week (which always produces vanilla game plans) as well as the fact that Atlanta is liable to lay an egg on any given week and fourteen points feels like way too much.
Jacksonville @ Atlanta
I also think it's worth taking a small flier on Jacksonville at +650. Why the hell not.
On to the parlays (2 of em) and teasers...
Jacksonville +14, Cincinnati, Arizona, Green Bay
This is my favorite kind of parlay. Pick a spread you like, then pick a few relatively heavy money line favorites that you are confident in to bump up the profit on the one game that you should theoretically be 50-50 to win. This pays out at +266.
Jacksonville +14, Arizona -6.5, Dallas -6.5, Cincinnati, Green Bay, New York Giants
Like I said last week, it's always fun to have a lottery ticket in your pocket on Sunday. This pays out at +1100.
Jacksonville +21, Green Bay -4, Seattle +14
I'm pissed I made this when Jacksonville was sitting at 11, I did not think it would move all the way up to 13.5 today. Either way, I'm obviously all in on the Jaguars tonight and betting Green Bay less than a touchdown against a shitty team is too easy. And if you watched the Bears-Broncos game last week, I don't need to tell you why I like getting two touchdowns against Caleb Hanie.
Cincinnati, Arizona, Seattle +10
I like Cincy to bounce back against a crappy Rams team this week. Arizona should have no problem at home against the professional equivalent of the Texas Longhorns. They have the same player at quarterback (Case and Colt McCoy look equally inept against college and pro defenses), a staggering amount of injuries at running back, and a wide receiver corps filled with guys who look more like the waterboy than football players.
Jacksonville +18, Green Bay -6.5, Seattle -3
The Seattle line was from Monday night at home against the Rams. I made the previous Jacksonville/Green Bay/Seattle teaser without realizing that I already had this one in play. Kinda humorous. Really? Not at all? Not even a little bit? Shit, well...this is awkward.
Ariona -1, New Orleans -1
New Orleans was out of their element last week. This week they return indoors to face a porous defense. This game feels like a shootout. Hmmmmm, Drew Brees or Jochristian Webponder in a shootout? (For those of you who don't get sarcasm, and there are far too many out there who don't, this is a rhetorical question).
Cincinnati +0.5, Green Bay -7
See earlier: Packers, shitty team, touchdown or less, stealing.
Dallas -1, New York Giants -1
I'm pretty sure that giving up 41 unanswered points to the Jaguars means you quit on your coach but that's just me. Tampa doesn't scare me one bit. The Giants at home against the Redskins after a big road win? This is the kind of game they have become experts at choking away. Hopefully the good Giants will show up but you never know until you know.
Houston -0.5, New Orleans -1
The reason that this is my least favorite teaser is that Cam Newton doesn't really have a signature win this season. If Carolina can jump out to an early lead I worry how much T.J. Yates can keep up. Regardless, Arian Foster vs the 24th ranked rush defense in yards per carry = yummmmm.
Cincinnati +1, Arizona +0.5, Dallas, Jacksonville +18, New York Jets +10, Green Bay -7, Houston +0.5, Denver +13, New York Giants, Seattle +11
Normally I don't like doing more than three team teasers but last week I somehow hit a 10 team teaser so the "shoot til you miss" philosophy applies here. Have a good weekend everyone.
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