This space has typically been reserved for putting my college football picks out in the open for everyone to see but since we only have two games to bet this week, I'm changing gears. I do bet on the NFL every week but I do not publish my picks because: A) I usually make my picks on Sunday morning while nursing a hangover that severely impairs my writing muscle and B) Traditionally, I kinda suck at picking NFL games. It's a fluky league that is impossible to predict unless you are the sharpest of the sharp. If you say otherwise then you need to explain to me how New Orleans can drop 62 on Indy and then get shut out in the first half the following week at the freaking Rams. I've actually had my best season ever betting on the NFL (I know, I know, I've said this before but saying you have won money without any proof is like saying you have a big dick without any proof, but I feel as if I have earned your trust) so this week I'll stick my neck out and post my NFL picks for the world to see. Same rules apply here, bets are listed in order of confidence.
Houston @ Cincinnati OVER 38.5
Overs are reserved for the fish (gambling parlance for a shitty bettor) but I really like this one. Mike Lombardi is a really smart football guy and he believes that T.J. Yates might be a better fit for the Texans offense than Matt Leinart. Personally, I think any quarterback that has Arian Foster lining up behind him will be just fine. The Bengals have a very solid offense as well and I expect both teams to be able to move the ball. This just feels like a 24-21 football game.
Minnesota +10 @ Detroit
It looks like Adrian Peterson is going to play against the Ndamukong Suh-less Lions on Sunday. The Lions can be run on even with Suh in the lineup so I expect Minnesota to command a lot of possession in this game. Plus the Lions are starting to lose it. After years of ineptitude, the Lions have finally become a competent football team and they are struggling to deal with their success. They're like a rabies-stricken dog that cannot control itself and just goes around trying to kill everything it sees. Jim Schwartz has taken the "us against the world" mentality to perverse levels and his team is playing as undisciplined as any in the league. It's always fun taking the points against stupid teams since they tend to give so many away for free.
New Orleans -3 @ Tennessee (bought a half point)
Tennessee has been the same team for a decade. They are one of the few teams in the NFL where it seems like any outcome is in play every week. The Saints are rolling right now and three points is not enough to scare me away from that offense.
New York Giants +4 @ Dallas (bought a half point)
Eli Manning and Tony Romo are the same quarterback. You would rather have them than most other guys in the league but you don't completely trust them either. Give me the points in this NFL version of Face Off.
On to the teasers and three parlays...
New England -6.5 (bought 1 point), Green Bay -10 (bought 1 point)
These might be the two best teams in the NFL. I'm betting them in some shape or form every week from here on out.
New England, New York Jets, New Orleans
This money line parlay pays out at +120. Call it a fish bet all you want, I just like betting the best teams to win.
New England -7 (bought 1 point), Green Bay -10 (bought 1 point), New Orleans -3 (bought a half point), Minnesota +10, Cincinnati and Houston OVER 38.5
It's always fun to have one lottery ticket every Sunday. This pays out at +2000.
New England -1.5, Green Bay -5
This is my largest bet of the week. The Redskins are done; there isn't a chance in hell the Patriots lose this week. Green Bay makes me a little nervous since they're so reliant on Aaron Rodgers being Superman but all I have to do is think about Carson Palmer trying to win a shootout in Lambeau and my fears start to dissipate.
New England -2, Houston and Cincinnati OVER 31.5
I have to tease this right?
Cleveland +24, New York Jets +1, Green Bay -1
Twenty four was a layup on a short week and the only scenario where Tyler Palko can walk into the Meadowlands and win against Rex Ryan's defense involves a post-apocalyptic zombie wasteland.
Chicago +10, New Orleans +3
It hurts me to bet against Tim Tebow but all of his games come down to the last fucking possession (can you tell that it stresses me out just a bit?). Getting a touchdown or more against him feels like stealing at this point.
New York Jets -2, Houston +10
24-21 right? Crap, calling out final scores gives you bad gambling karma and is a fruitless exercise. That is, unless you work for a Disney-owned TV network and are secretly picking against the spread without telling everyone that you are picking against the spread. When I was a kid I would be confounded as to why Boomer would put the arrow next to the losing team. Now I see that he's just telling everyone which teams to bet against. (Bad joke about Boomer sucking at picking games. Crap, now I'm doing the Family Guy thing where they do something stupid then try and make it funny by pointing out how stupid it is, let's just move on)
New York Giants +10.5, New England -1, Minnesota +17
I guess I kinda like the Pats this week, huh.
Lastly, I will leave you with two bets I announced on Twitter this week that have nothing to do with sports.
Jon Huntsman to win the GOP nomination at 18-1
18-1??? Are you kidding me? In a race where Herman freaking Cain and Michelle "I always look like I'm lost" Bachmann were front runners an actual adult with reasonable ideas and executive experience is 18-1? Please, this is ridiculous value. The GOP base cannot stand Mitt Romney and the GOP establishment is screaming from the rooftops that Newt Gingrich is an untrustworthy sociopath. This race is still wide open and Huntsman is a legitimate conservative with a track record that backs it up. He's still not a favorite but 18-1 is too good to pass up. And yes, I know I have a problem and I don't care. Value is value. Now if I start betting on Dancing With the Stars, maybe then I'd probably need to talk to someone...
Jon Huntsman to win the Presidency at 35-1
Any Republican is probably about a +150 underdog against Obama (unless Europe unravels and the shit hits the fan, then all bets are off). If you think Huntsman can win the GOP, you'd be crazy not to bet this too. Have a good weekend everyone.
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