Wowie wowie wow wow. If not for a ridiculous collapse by Maryland and a touchdown that maybe should not have been overturned in the Michigan game, my only loss last week would have been my money line gamble on Arkansas (it didn't appear in the blog along with a couple teasers I played late Saturday night). I had my best gambling weekend ever last week, going 15-3-1 in college and 10-2 in the pros. This week I am trying to be cautious while still trying to ride the momentum of last week. Picking games for me can be like giving J.R. Smith unlimited offensive freedom; I can get insanely hot and not miss for a short period of time but I can lose it just as quickly. On to the picks.
West Virginia -2.5 @ USF
USF quarterback B.J. Daniels is a game time decision tonight but even if he plays I still like West Virginia. They're the better team and they can still clinch a BCS spot by winning and finishing higher in the rankings than Cincinnati and Louisville (which is very possible as they're currently ranked higher than both teams). Additionally, USF is 0-7 against the spread in their last seven Thursday night games. All signs point to a win for the Mountaineers.
Baylor -2.5 vs Texas
Robert Griffin III said that he could have gone back into last week's game against Texas Tech if needed so he should be all set to play this week. Texas' defense is good but in my mind Baylor simply has too much offense for Case McCoy, David Ash, or whatever warm body Mack Brown decides to stick back at quarterback. It really doesn't matter at this point. This game also is quite meaningless in light of Texas' improbable last minute win over Texas A&M last week. They've already had their biggest win of the season. Look for Griffin to strengthen his Heisman case even more this week against a good Texas defense.
Southern Mississippi @ Houston Over 72
This is a football game that Rick Pitino and John Calipari could get behind. Southern Miss and Houston is the equivalent of fast break, full court press basketball. Both teams should generate a ton of possessions in this game and I don't see any way how both don't score at least 5 touchdowns.
Virginia Tech -6.5 vs Clemson
I have no read on Clemson other than they are maddeningly inconsistent. Virginia Tech is the inverse of the Tigers as they seem to lose one game and represent the ACC in the BCS every year. Beamerball trumps whatever schizophrenic game they play down at Clemson this week.
That's it for the ATS bets this week, on to the two parlays and teasers...
LSU, Wisconsin, Utah State, Baylor -2.5, West Virginia -2.5
This pays out at +560. As you can tell, I like the Bears and Mountaineers this week and am very confident that Georgia, Michigan State, and New Mexico State will lose outright this week.
LSU, Wisconsin, Utah State, Baylor -2.5, West Virginia -2.5, Houston, Southern Miss & Houston Over 72, Oregon -31.5, TCU -38.5, Virginia Tech
This is nothing more than a heat check. OK so maybe it's a heat check from outside the arena but it's worth it. This pays out at +7400 so why the hell not?
Baylor +3, West Virginia +3
I'm pretty sure I have no choice but to tease this.
Southern Miss @ Houston Over 66, West Virginia +3.5
Same here, after last week how can I not double down on the games I like?
Baylor +4.5, Utah State -6.5
Laying less than a touchdown with any D-1 team against New Mexico State is just flat out stealing.
LSU -4, Michigan State +19.5, Oregon -21.5
This 10 point teaser is partially influenced by my 10 point tease on the NFL Sunday. I took the Jets from -9.5 to +0.5 and immediately regretted not taking the Bills up to +19.5. Mark Sanchez and company gave me one hell of a sweat on my biggest bet of the NFL season and I have vowed to not put my financial future in his hands ever again. I like Wisconsin this week but I don't think Michigan State gets blown out. Conversely, I can only see UCLA getting blown out up in Eugene.
Oklahoma +10.5, Virginia Tech
This one makes me a little nervous as Oklahoma State can turn a competitive game into a laugher pretty quickly. I think Landry Jones and company make a game of it though. Have a good weekend folks.
Last week: 15-3-1
Season: 75-63-5
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