I can be a bit boisterous, especially when I am certain I'm right. So I won't waste too much of your time talking about how my KState +9 bet last week was the easiest bet I've ever made. Hopefully you all followed suit and won a bunch of money like me. My 4-6 record last week was basically inconsequential as my KState bet took up over half of my bankroll. This week is different. There's really no line that I'm uber crazy about so we're moving from the sniper approach (all money concentrated on one game) to the shotgun approach: take aim at a cluster of games, fire, then see what you're left with. Normally, games are sorted in descending order of confidence but this week I don't feel that strongly about many of these games. You could randomly jumble these up and I'd probably still be OK with the order that comes out. So with that rousing amount of confidence, let's move on to the Thanksgiving games...
USC -14 vs UCLA
Matt Barkley is playing out of his cranium right now and UCLA has made a habit out of getting drubbed on the road. They lost by 25 at Utah, 36 at Arizona, 24 at Stanford, and their lone close road loss of the season was by 4 at Houston at the beginning of the season. USC should take this one easily.
Under 57 in Pittsburgh & West Virginia
Rivalry games bring a different element of toughness to the table. Neither team is particularly high scoring and both defenses are very solid. This game feels like a brawl where the winner will make one more key play than the loser.
Under 54 in Texas & Texas A&M
Same theory goes for this game. Texas' defense is very good and extremely solid against the run. Ryan Tannehill is a threat to go off every week but I feel like Texas is going to want to leave A&M with one last parting shot before defecting to the SEC. This is Texas' Super Bowl and I fully expect their defense to come out and dominate.
Oregon State +28 @ Oregon
This is too many points for a rivalry game. Oregon State has had a rough season as they have been inconsistent all year. I expect them to put together a complete performance and at least keep this game somewhat competitive. Plus, if I'm wrong, 28 is a pretty easy number to backdoor.
Houston -3 @ Tulsa
Craps table is still hot. I'm not leavin yet.
Georgia -6 @ Georgia Tech
The biggest difference between the SEC and the rest of the country is the speed of the front seven. Georgia's front seven should be able to control the option attack of Georgia Tech.
Maryland +12.5 @ North Carolina State
This line is an overreaction to the drubbing NC State put on Clemson last week. Clemson sleep walked through that game and turned the ball over 87 times. If turnovers are equal in this game I cannot see either team winning by more than a touchdown. Take the points.
Michigan -7 vs Ohio State
Ohio State has owned Michigan over the past decade. Brady Hoke and Denard Robinson will establish a new era in this rivalry this week.
Virginia Tech -5 @ Virginia
Virginia hasn't played anyone on the level of Virginia Tech all year. Look for the Hokies to play some old fashioned Beamer Ball and pull away in the 2nd half.
Wisconsin -14 vs Penn State
I'm not sure Matt McGloin can score on Wisconsin's defense.
San Jose State +6.5 @ Fresno State
I've added two new rules to my college gambling manifesto in the past week. First, if I ever bet Clemson in November & December again, someone gets to hit me in the nuts with a hammer. Second, if a team is getting points against someone who lost to New Mexico State, take the points.
On to the parlay and teasers...
Oregon State +28, Pitt/WVU Under 57, Texas/Texas A&M Under 54, USC -14
I guess these are my four favorite lines this week. This parlay pays out at +1000
Georgia +4, Maryland +22.5, Virginia Tech +5
I don't make 10 point teasers very often, but when I do...ah screw it, the Dos Equis angle has been overdone. Just bet this please.
Michigan -1, Virginia Tech +1
Pick the best teams to win. Easy.
Houston +3, Texas/Texas A&M Under 60
Even if Case Keenum craps out this week I still think I'm going to be Houston in their bowl game. Dude is gambling goodness.
Lastly, I'll leave you with my lone Turkey Day NFL pick
Lions +220, Over 55.5
Green Bay is overrated. They're still the best team in the NFL, but they can be beat. It's going to happen one of these days and this is one of the best opportunities for the rest of the season. If Detroit is going to win this game, it will be in a shootout. This parlay pays out at +500. Have a good Thanksgiving everyone.
*Friday post-turkey update: I should have noted that in the scenario I painted on Wednesday, I assumed that Ndamukong Suh wouldn't get himself kicked out in the 3rd quarter after curb stomping an o-lineman. Silly me.
Last Week: 4-6
Season: 60-60-4
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