There are certain things in life that are so rare, the need to cherish them seems to be programmed into our DNA. Humans all over the planet gather to watch Halley's Comet dart by Earth every 75 years, the Great Pyramid at Giza makes us stare in awe of its magnificence, and within NBA circles, Kim Kardashian's ass is as sacred as the Old Testament. This week we get to celebrate another one of these rare moments of brilliance where an unlikely series of events leads to a confluence of factors that produce an item of immeasurable beauty. Remember when I said that it is smart to spread your bets out and aim for .500? Forget it for one week. Vegas has dispensed a line that makes absolutely no sense on any rational level. Let's get to this rare gem before I pull another metaphor out of my ass.
Kansas State +9 @ Texas
Kansas State has two losses, both to Oklahoma and Oklahoma State, while Texas has three (two to the aforementioned Oklahoma schools and last week to Missouri). Texas' offense has produced five blowouts versus Rice, UCLA, Iowa State, Kansas, and Texas Tech while Kansas State has just two (Kent State and Kansas). However, Texas' blowouts came against the 111th, 92nd, 81st, 120th, and 114th ranked scoring defenses, respectively.
UMass could put up points against most of those teams. Texas is a paper tiger. Kansas State already has wins against the other three quality teams in the Big 12 (Mizzou, Baylor, Texas A&M) whereas Texas is 0-1 versus those three, scoring a robust five points against Mizzou last week while losing their best player for the year.
Texas has made their money by running the football. Fozzie Whitaker, Joe Bergeron, and Malcom Brown have carried the Longhorn offense to a top 30 ranking in yards per carry (4.76 YPC). Whitaker needs a new ACL, and Bergeron and Brown are both game time decisions after missing their last two games with a hamstring injury and turf toe. Texas is not a very dynamic offense to begin with and their best weapons are all banged up. Even their top receiving threat, Jaxon Shipley, may miss the game this weekend.
Even if Texas had everyone healthy, Kansas State is still the better team. Add in the fact that Kansas State is 5-2 against Texas since the inception of the Big 12 (which does mean something since Bill Snyder and Mack Brown have been the coaches at both schools for all those games except for the two KState losses; Ron Prince coached KState for those) as well as winners of three in a row (including Colin Klein's debut in a 39-14 beatdown last year) and I don't see how in the world any rational human being can declare Kansas State the underdog let alone a two score underdog. This is the most confusing line I have seen in years. Instead of investing your money with the crooks on Wall Street, bet your 401k on Colin Klein and the Wildcats this weekend. Lord knows I did.
Kansas State @ Texas
That's right, my 2nd favorite bet this week is a money line bet on the Wildcats. Grab em at +260 while you can folks.
Clemson -7 (bought 1/2 point) @ North Carolina State
Clemson is wildly inconsistent and can drop any game to anyone but I have a hard time seeing the Wolfpack hang with Clemson. The way you beat the Tigers is by running the ball and only Florida Atlantic, Kent State, Memphis, Tennessee, Rutgers, and Miami (Ohio) average less yards per carry than North Carolina State.
Oregon -14 (bought 1/2 point) vs USC
In their last two meetings Oregon has beaten USC 100 to 52 and has amassed over 1,200 yards. Needless to say, this version of the Trojans has trouble stopping Oregon's blur offense. Oregon's pass defense did a good job of containing Andrew Luck last week so there's no reason to think that they cannot do the same to Matt Barkley this week. The difference in this game will be scores in the red zone; Oregon ranks 5th nationally in touchdown percentage in the red zone while USC ranks 80th.
Miami (PK) @ South Florida
USF is 1-4 in the Big East. That says enough for me. Miami wins, period.
On to the parlays and teasers, and yes, those are all the straight up picks. I used all of my capital on Kansas State and will be eating Ramen noodles for the rest of my life if they lose.
Boise State, Stanford, Oregon, Kansas State
This money line parlay pays out at +400. No way Boise and Stanford drop games to San Diego State and Cal.
Kansas State +9, Clemson -8
How do I not bet this?
Kansas State +15, Clemson -2
Or this?
Kansas State +15, Houston -14
Case Keenum is like a hot craps table right now. Keep betting him until he loses, then sprint away from the table with your profit as fast as you can.
Oklahoma -10, Penn State +12.5
Fine, I'll bet someone other than KState. OU wins in a blowout and getting double digit points is usually a winning strategy for any Big Ten matchup. Have a good weekend everyone, and remember, Vegas doesn't screw up very often. Take advantage of their gift to humanity this week.
Last week: 7-6-1
Season: 56-54-4
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