Well last week I said I would aim for .500 and I did just that by going an unimpressive 6-5. Luckily Arkansas and Oklahoma covered for me so the rest of my picks were relatively meaningless. I'm starting to think that my best picking days are behind me. This is typically the time of year that Vegas catches up and makes many near-perfect lines. Your strategy should change here as well. You'll always have games you like more than others, but at this point, you should spread out your picks as much as possible just in case you happen to be wrong on your favorite games (which is much more likely to happen at this point). This way, you can try to minimize the damage on your bad days. On to the picks...
Nebraska -3 @ Penn State
I was eying Nebraska before this horrible scandal came out. Now that Penn State is the center of the most horrific sports scandal of my lifetime, I cannot see any way that the coaches and players will be completely focused on Saturday. If you follow me on Twitter, you know how disgusted I am by this scandal. Many have written ad nauseum about this scandal and I think we all pretty much feel the same way (except for some Penn State homers who have an unconscionably fucked up view of morality and justice) but I'll throw my two cents out there.
Joe Paterno knew. There's no way he didn't. Sandusky was a core element of the football program and one of the key factors in their success. From what we have read so far about the case, it's pretty obvious that Paterno knew of some sort of misconduct and given that 9 victims have already come forward and there seems to be decades of abuse on Sandusky's part, there's a good chance he knew of what kind of misconduct it was. But Joe Pa decided to overlook it or not investigate further because of Sandusky's vital importance to the football program. Sandusky was the linebackers coach and helped to turn Penn State into "Linebacker U." I do not see any way that he could have been oblivious to what was going on, and if he was, he should have been fired decades ago because he obviously was not competent enough to run a big time football program (yes, he knows football but if you can't protect the kids, nothing else matters). As far as I'm concerned, Joe Paterno is no different than the Catholic Bishops and Cardinals who covered up decades of child abuse within the Church. His crimes are the sort that appear in front of the International Criminal Court as crimes against humanity and he should absolutely be investigated for criminal negligence in this case. Joe Paterno's insistence on retiring at the end of the year further demonstrates his staggering lack of compassion and his overwhelming sense of entitlement.
Joe Paterno, good riddance. You deserve everything you get and then some. Your record for wins means absolutely nothing and your place in history as one of the greatest coaches of all time is gone. This scandal is your legacy and you will forever be remembered as the guy who prioritized a fucking game over the well-being of innocent children.
Utah State -10 vs San Jose State
San Jose State's 92nd ranked rush defense, I would like to introduce you to Utah State's 2nd ranked rush offense. Throw in Utah State's 82% red zone touchdown rate (2nd in the nation only to Wisconsin) and I am all over the second best team in the country named the Aggies.
Louisville -3 vs Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh should have trouble rushing against Louisville's stout and ever-improving defense (2.93 YPC against) without their best player Ray Graham. I like Louisville to keep rolling by pulling away in the 4th quarter.
Wisconsin -27 @ Minnesota
After dropping 62 on Purdue last week, Montee Ball and Wisconsin have to be salivating looking at tape of Minnesota's 107th ranked rush defense. Wisconsin has the personnel to avoid letting Minnesota back into the game as they have the 15th ranked pass defense in the country. Wisky wins in a romp.
Vanderbilt -13.5 vs Kentucky
Kentucky is awful as they have been outscored 89-10 in their two road games this year. Granted they were against LSU and South Carolina, but wins (all at home) over Western Kentucky (14-3), Central Michigan (27-13), and Jacksonville State (38-14) are unimpressive. Vandy is 4-5 and desperately needs this game if they want to send their large senior class (most returning starters in the nation) to a bowl game as their last two games are not layups (@ Tennessee, @ Wake Forest).
Michigan -1 @ Illinois
I believe in Denard. That's pretty much what this bet comes down to.
Arizona State -11.5 @ Washington State
Brock Osweiler is about to begin his charge to be the #1 overall pick next year. Facing Washington State's 110th ranked pass defense should definitely help.
Arkansas -14 vs Tennessee
Remember my 29 point threshold from last week? It still stands here. Tennesse has scored 29+ three times: vs Montana (I-AA team), vs Cincinnati (early in the season and given their results since, it feels like an aberration), and vs Buffalo (84th ranked scoring defense). I'll be on the Tyler Wilson bandwagon for the rest of the season.
USC -11.5 vs Washington
This game will be close throughout but Matt Barkley seems to be blossoming into the quarterback everyone thought he could be. Look for him to put this away late.
On to the parlay and the teasers
Alabama, Vanderbilt, Oklahoma St, Northwestern, Utah State, Boise State, Arkansas
These are all just to win and this parlay pays out at +180. Seems like a stupid bet but whatever, let's roll the dice.
Vanderbilt -6.5, West Virginia +10.5
I looked at West Virginia and Cincinnati for what seemed like roughly 27 hours. There is absolutely no angle to play whatsoever, so take the points, the team doesn't matter.
Utah State -3, Wisconsin -20, Miami +16
Same goes for Florida State and Miami. 16 seems generous given both of their defenses.
Arizona State -5.5, Georgia -6.5
Georgia's defense is really coming on towards the end of the season and should be able to control Auburn's one-dimensional running attack as Georgia allows an anemic 2.96 yards per carry. Have a good weekend folks.
Last week: 6-5
Season: 49-48-3
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