Remember that asshole who said "It's always nice hitting your best games since you can still be profitable with a marginal picks record." Well thanks to Ohio State's last minute pseudo-hail mary, Wisconsin lost their second consecutive game on a poke in the eye from the football gods. Wisconsin's hope for a national title appearance disappeared, taking the majority of my funds along with it. The last two weeks I experienced the tremendous joy and excruciating pain that results from putting all your hopes and dreams on one bet. I'm tempted to do it again this week but my wounds are still too fresh. It's best to spread out and just aim for .500. On to the picks...
Arkansas -4.5 vs South Carolina
South Carolina would have trouble covering this even if Marcus Lattimore still had a fully functioning ACL. With Lattimore, they scored over 29 points three times this season against East Carolina, Georgia, and Kentucky (the 90th, 24th, and 69th scoring defenses in the country). Why did I choose this seemingly arbitrary number? Because Arkansas has scored at least 29 points against every opponent they have faced other than the ones who have the words "crimson" and "tide" in their name. Yes, South Carolina's defense should keep this one close but I have a hard time seeing Connor Shaw keeping up with Tyler Wilson and company for four quarters.
Oklahoma -13 vs Texas A&M
Boston College, Tulane, Idaho, and Hawaii. What do these teams have in common? They give up less yards per pass than Texas A&M. The best passing attack the Aggies have faced this year was Tyler Wilson's Razorbacks and he threw for 510 yards with 3 TDs and no picks. Landry Jones and the Sooners are better and more consistent than Arkansas. Look for the Sooners to put up 50 again.
South Florida -2.5 @ Rutgers
South Florida currently employs University of Colorado reject Darrell Scott at tailback. Scott was the top running back in the country before he came to CU where Dan Hawkins decided that the best use for a 6'1'' 240 pound bowling ball was on the kick return team. South Florida can run (27th in YPC) and Rutgers is so-so at stopping the run (51st in YPC against). Rutgers' ranking becomes less impressive when you see that they have faced two top 40 rushing offenses all year: Navy (who only kind of counts since they run on every freaking play) and the mighty Ohio Wildcats. Look for lots of possession for USF.
Baylor -2.5 vs Missouri
Baylor's defense is despicable and has been beaten up by elite offenses the past couple weeks (Oklahoma State hung 59 on them, A&M dropped 55). Missouri is a solid team but their offense is not on par with the aforementioned Cowboys and Aggies. Last week, Baylor somehow managed to gain 286 yards in the first half while failing to put any points on the board and they actually ended up out-gaining the Cowboys 622 to 601. Baylor's offense should put on an impressive performance at home against Missouri who could be set for a letdown game after winning their biggest game of the year last week in an emotional overtime win against the Aggies.
Houston -27.5 @ UAB
Case Keenum threw 9 (9!!!!!!!!!!!!!!) touchdown passes last week. UAB is 111th against the pass. This isn't difficult.
OVER 69.5 Kansas State @ Oklahoma State
Oklahoma State is the public gamblers dream. Their offense cannot be stopped and their defense couldn't stop a nosebleed. Overs for everyone!!!
Florida -13.5 vs Vanderbilt
Vanderbilt has to be smarting after their dramatic kicker fail at the end of last week's game against Arkansas. Heading into Gainesville to face the Gators' young and improving defense (already 22nd in the country) is not the best remedy to fix one's sorrows. Expect Vandy's 80th ranked scoring offense to struggle down in the swamp.
Alabama -4.5 vs LSU
I don't want to bet this game because it's basically like flipping a coin, but I feel like I have to. So give me the team with a slightly better head coach, offensive line, defense, and running game (Trent Richardson vs Spencer Ware is more even than you think). Home field advantage helps as well. Bama wins it 17-10.
On to the teasers (there's no parlay this week because I can't afford to make foolish bets after last weeks debacle...sigh...fuck you Wisconsin).
Arkansas +1.5, Oklahoma -7
So tempted to put all my hopes and dreams on this one...
Houston -20.5, TCU -12.5
November is the time to bet on young teams that have underperformed. The Horned Frogs are the poster child for that mantra in 2011.
Florida -6.5, USF +3.5
Because I didn't have the balls to tease LSU to 10.5. Have a good weekend everyone.
Last Week: 2-8
Season: 43-43-3
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