Whoops. That's what happens when you start running your mouth. Karma comes out of nowhere and serves you up a slice of warm humble pie. Last week my humble pie came in the form of Georgia Tech and Michigan. Denard's late pick six to cover my teasers and the Yellow Jackets' no show in Virginia crushed my bets last week. If Denard doesn't throw that pick at the end of the game and Georgia Tech beats what was an overmatched Virginia team, I go 9-4 instead of 5-8. Oh well, such is life. At least I hit my favorite bets which made the money damage manageable. Time to take Jay-Z's advice and focus on this week's games. As always, games are sorted in descending order of confidence.
Kansas State -12 @ Kansas
There is not a single team who gives up more points per game this year than Kansas. They are dead last in the country, giving up 49 points per game. The lowest amount of points any D-1 team has scored on them this year is 42 by Northern Illinois. The point is that Kansas is terrible. While Kansas State is not as good as their #11 ranking, they play solid football and do not beat themselves (11th in the country in turnover ratio). Given the pounding Kansas has taken recently (47-17 vs OU, 70-28 @ Okie State), they should be two TD underdogs against any top 20 team even if the game is being played on the moon.
Temple -12.5 @ Bowling Green
Temple has been obliterating teams ever since their shocking blowout win at Maryland a few weeks ago (a game where I loved Maryland by the way). They have been doing it with defense (they have the 2nd ranked scoring defense at 9.6 points per game, trailing only Alabama). Bowling Green cannot hold on to the football (111th in turnover ratio). The seeds are planted for another Temple romp.
Oklahoma State -7.5 @ Mizzou
The Cowboys game last week in Austin was a little closer than I expected. I probably should have looked to Texas' surprisingly good pass defense (7th in yards per attempt) before going all out on that bet. Normally this would worry me as my read was off last week but not this week. The way Oklahoma State beats teams is through the air, and Mizzou does not have Texas' secondary (60th in yards per attempt).
Houston -20.5 vs Marshall
The blueprint for beating Houston is to run the ball and control the clock and stop the big passing plays through the air (Houston is 6th in yards per attempt). Marshall cannot do either as they rank 103rd nationally in yards per rush and are 83rd against the pass. Houston is hot, winning their last 3 games by a combined 161-45. I don't see how Marshall hangs with them in the Texas heat.
Oregon -32 @ Colorado
I will forever love my Buffs. The first football games I ever attended were in Boulder in freezing temperatures when they still played on a turf field and Kordell Stewart was slinging passes to Michael Westbrook while Rashaan Salaam ran for 2,000 yards. I have some great memories from Boulder and will forever be a lifetime Buffalo fan. Sadly, these Buffaloes are not the same team. CU gives up points to everyone. They give up points to good offenses (52 to Washington, 48 to Stanford) and bad offenses alike (31 to Washington State, 37 to Ohio State). Is there any doubt Oregon and their 3rd ranked scoring offense (behind only Wisconsin and Oklahoma State) will put up some points in Boulder?
Boise State -31.5 vs Air Force
I swear I don't hate my home state...just this week.
On to the teasers! But first, the weekly parlay.
Air Force & Boise State OVER 64.5, Kansas State -11, Oklahoma State -7, Wisconsin -6.5
Everyone scores on Air Force and I think Wisconsin is the third best team in the country (I'm just not sure they'll cover 7.5). I brought the line down a point just because Michigan State isn't lousy. This pays out at about +1000.
Kansas State -6, Oklahoma State -1.5
My favorite bet of the year. Me and my buddies are doing a league where we get 1,000 fictional dollars to bet over the course of the season and the person with the most money at the end of the season wins $100 from the others. I bet $800 of my available $1200 on this teaser this week. And yes, I am fully aware that betting real money on fake money is the height of degenerism...degeneracy...(checking dictionary.com)...degenerateness...whatever, you get the point. We have a problem.
Kansas State -6, Oklahoma State -1.5, Temple -6.5
Shocking that this is on here, huh.
Boise State -24.5, Houston -13.5, Oregon -25
This is my 50 point special; I expect each offense to hit 50 this week. I just have to avoid a bad defensive performance from one of them and I should be good. Granted, I did say that last week was going to be a banner week. Let's just say that we're cautiously optimistic this week (see gambling gods, I've learned my lesson...I think).
Last week: 5-8
Season: 35-29-3
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