Boom. 10-5 (my other win came on a halftime bet of Oklahoma -5 in the 2nd half) last week. Not too shabby, one more week like this and I might have to start selling my picks (that line might have ensured me a winless week from the gambling gods, but fuck it, I'm feeling good about my read on college football right now). I liked a lot of lines last week, this week is a little different in that my confidence does not reside in a large volume of lines, but in a few. I've decided to double down on the games I like this week. Let's do this.
Oklahoma State - 8 @ Texas
Last week, Oklahoma amassed 452 yards in the first three quarters before sending out the cheerleading squad to play the 4th quarter against the woefully overmatched Longhorns. Okie State's offense is every bit as good as the Sooners. The Cowboys have scored at least 30 points in every game this year. Is there any doubt they'll do it again this week? Do you trust Case McCoy and David Ash in a shootout with Brandon Weeden and Justin Blackmon? That's what I thought. This is a two score game. At least.
Clemson -9 @ Maryland
I hesitated on this game at first but once Tajh Boyd was cleared to play on Monday I jumped all over this line. Maryland is in the middle of a QB controversy as Danny O'Brien was benched last week after going 1/6 for 17 yards and a pick. Backup QB C.J. Brown didn't fare much better against a tough Georgia Tech defense (4/17 for 36 yards and a pick). Maryland cannot have much confidence in its passing attack right now. This is a bad week to have a quarterback crisis as Clemson's high powered offense visits College Park. This game has the feel of a close one for three quarters before Clemson pulls away.
Michigan +3 @ Michigan State
Remember how I said I regretted not betting Michigan more last week? Yeah, take the better team with the points. Kirk Cousins and Michigan State will put up a fight but Denard Robinson will win this one at the end for the Wolverines.
Stanford -20 @ Washington State
Andrew Luck is in a groove and the Cougars are terrible. I might just bet Stanford every week the rest of the season, that has to be +EV right? (More gambling lingo, +EV is positive expected value, basically saying that you expect to make money more often than not on a bet).
South Carolina -4.5 @ Mississippi State
This was an error on my part. You can grab this line at South Carolina -3 right now. When the line came out I anticipated that it would move to 7, not 3. Apparently bettors are worried about Stephen Garcia's suspension having a negative effect on the team. I'm going the other way on this one. He has been a distraction since he stepped foot on campus. The Gamecocks will be better now that they know who their quarterback is and Steve Spurrier can focus on football instead of babysitting.
On to the parlay and teasers (in that order)...
Clemson -9, Michigan +3, Oklahoma State -8, South Carolina -4.5, Stanford -20
Like I said in the intro, there's not a lot of games I like this week but the ones I do like, I like a lot. Why not swing for the fences? This parlay pays out at 25-1.
Clemson -2, Vanderbilt +19, Oklahoma -28, Stanford -13
Because Vandy can beat Georgia outright at home and Oklahoma is going to eviscerate Kansas.
Georgia Tech -1, Michigan +10, Oklahoma State -1
Simple logic here, I think the Yellow Jackets will win at Virginia.
Clemson -2, Georgia Tech -1, Oklahoma State -1
My favorite bet of the week.
Clemson -2.5, Oklahoma State -2
If the previous one isn't my favorite, this one is.
Georgia Tech -1.5, LSU -10
With 10 teams in the national title picture (Alabama, LSU, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Wisconsin, Michigan, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Stanford, Boise State), LSU has to be in impress the judges mode. I don't expect them to let up once they take a lead at Tennessee this week.
Michigan +8, South Carolina +3.5
It's always nice taking the better team and the points isn't it?
Baylor +15.5, Kansas State +10.5, Oklahoma State
Baylor and Texas A&M might both score 100 this week but I can't see either winning by more than two touchdowns. Kansas State +10.5 at Texas Tech is too easy.
Last week: 10-5
Season: 30-21-3
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