Gambling is a fickle mistress. Last week I made a nice comeback with a 6-2 week (5-2 if you only read the blog). Saturday morning I bet Arkansas -2.5 and if you don't believe me check my Twitter feed. I was tilting pretty good in the first half while Texas A&M was averaging approximately 57 yards per carry. This week is gonna be a big one for me. I like a lot of lines so this is where I either show my genius or prove myself a fool (Vegas currently is setting the latter as a -400 favorite). On to the picks, as always, bets are in descending order of confidence.
Texas A&M -6 @ Texas Tech
I think A&M wins this one handily. Dissenters will point out that Texas Tech is undefeated and playing at home. The problem is that Texas Tech hasn't played a real college football team yet. They have home wins versus Texas State and Nevada and road wins at New Mexico and Kansas. A&M is the first top 50 team Texas Tech has played this year (that might be too generous of a ranking for Nevada). The Aggies averaged 7.1 yards per rush last week against Arkansas. They should have no problem with Texas Tech's 117th ranked run defense.
Boise State -20.5 @ Fresno State
Boise needs these national TV games. They know that the only way they can play for a championship is to demolish opponents when everyone is watching (as well as getting some losses from Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Wisconsin, Stanford, LSU, Alabama, and Clemson).
Notre Dame -16.5 vs Air Force
Air Force has given up at least 20 points in every game this season (even to the mighty South Dakota Coyotes). Notre Dame's offense is by far the best they have faced this season and they are beginning to click. The hyperbole is going to increase around South Bend after this week.
Arizona State -3 @ Utah
Utah could only muster 14 points against Washington's 86th ranked scoring defense last week. This week Vontaze Burfict (my winner for name of the year, narrowly edging out anyone named Rantavious) and Arizona State's 31st ranked scoring defense comes to town and shouldn't make things any easier for the Utes. Look for Brock Osweiler to have a big day through the air.
Michigan -6.5 @ Northwestern
I bet Michigan over 7 wins at the beginning of this season but have only picked them once against the spread (that miracle game against Notre Dame with 3 TDs in the final minute). Obviously I'm happy that they are 5-0 but I'm kicking myself for not betting them more. Time to start.
LSU -13.5 vs Florida
Pray for Jeff Driskell and his 16 career passing attempts. You really want to bet on a freshman quarterback making his first start against this defense?
Clemson -21 vs Boston College
No one has stopped Clemson's offense yet and I don't expect that to start this week. Boston College is terrible and that's not just my UMass bias speaking*.
*This is the first mention of my alma mater here on Made with Real Bits of Panther. Get used to many more, especially next year when we move up from I-AA (I refuse to refer to it as the FCS or FBS or whatever the hell the NCAA decided to call it) to the mighty MAC. If the Pollis blows up I will undoubtedly become UMass' biggest football booster. I'm giddy just thinking about being able to pay the next Cam Newton to come to Amherst. I mean, uh, encourage the next Cam Newton to come to Amherst, right NCAA?
Indiana +14.5 vs Illinois
I don't like either of these teams but it's hard for me to pass up a home team getting more than two touchdowns in any Big Ten game.
Those are the straight up bets, let's move on to the teasers and a crazy parlay. All teasers are 7 point teasers and pay out at +180. For those who are not degenerates, a teaser allows you to add points to a line (so a team +3 becomes +10) and a parlay is where you bet multiple lines and have to get every one right to get paid out at much higher odds. Also remember that a +180 line means you have to risk $100 to win $180.
Indiana +21.5, Iowa and Penn State UNDER 52, Ball State +16
I love home dogs and betting against Big Ten offenses.
Boise State -13.5, Michigan -.5, Kansas State +10.5
Kansas State, home dog. I'm boring aren't I?
LSU -7, Oklahoma -3, Texas A&M -2.5
Oklahoma is much better than Texas and should win by at least one touchdown.
Notre Dame -8, Auburn and Arkansas OVER 56.5, Clemson -14
Auburn and Arkansas will undoubtedly be my favorite game of the day. Each team might break the over by themselves.
Notre Dame -15, Boise State -20.5, Georgia Tech (no spread, just the money line)
This parlay pays out at +330. Can you tell I like Notre Dame and Boise this week? Now for the fun one...
Notre Dame -15, Arizona State -3, Boise State -20.5, Clemson -21, LSU -13.5, Indiana +14.5, Michigan -6.5
This pays out at +6800. Hey, I said I liked a lot of lines this week, why not swing for the fences?
Last week: 6-2
Season: 20-16-3
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