Games I Hope to Not Lose Money On

The first post here was a bit heavy. While I certainly have the capability to be serious, in reality, I am nothing more than a big goofball who likes sports and gambling a little too much. I have been betting on sports since I was 16 years old and have lost a lot of money learning some important lessons. Things like "Jacob should never, ever, under ANY circumstances, bet the NBA" and "only bet on Daunte Culpepper if all 31 starting quarterbacks are mortally wounded." I don't want to think about the amount of money I have lost over the years for too long because I'm afraid that blood will just start shooting out my ears. Luckily, I have developed one "skill" in sports betting over the years: College Football (I put skill in quotation marks because ultimately, it's all a crapshoot).

I have developed some successful philosophies that I will share with you all (like how you should always bet against the Big 10 when they play against the Pac-12, Big 12, or SEC every day and twice on Sunday). Every week I will post my bets on college football. I don't proclaim these to be gospel (although I do think that I will have a big week this week) but there are definitely some winners in here. I'm coming off a 7-2-1 week last week (I know, saying you won money gambling without any proof is like telling people that you have a gigantic dick, but trust me, 7-2-1 happened) so hopefully I can continue to ride the wave. Here we go. Bets appear in order of confidence, so the first one you see is my favorite, last is the least favorite.

Boise St -17 @ Toledo
Oklahoma and Florida State are essentially playing an elimination game Saturday night. Boise is competing with the winner of that game, Nebraska, Wisconsin, and Stanford to face the SEC Champion in the title game so they know that they have to put up big numbers in games like this. Yes, Toledo almost beat Ohio State in Columbus last week and out-gained them by over 100 yards but I've got news for you: Boise is no Ohio State. They have the 2nd best quarterback in the country and one of the smartest coaches to boot. Their spread offense is an entirely different animal than the plodding Ohio State offense and Toledo is going to have trouble keeping Kellen Moore and company in check. Most sportsbooks have this one at -20 right now (I grabbed -17 as soon as the line was posted) but I still think that might be a good bet.


South Carolina -17 vs Navy
Navy hasn't attempted a pass longer than 15 yards since the Nixon administration. South Carolina features the best running back and possibly the best wide receiver in the country in Marcus Lattimore and Alshon Jeffrey and should have no problem scoring points against a solid but overmatched Navy defense. Do you trust Navy's option offense to come back down from 3 TDs on the road in the SEC? Me either. Go with the 'ol ball coach on this one.

Temple +7.5 vs Penn St
I think Temple wins this game outright. Penn State quarterback Rob Bolden had 37 yards passing against Indiana State (Indiana State!!!!) and followed that performance up with an 11/29 against Alabama's vaunted defense. What I'm getting at is that the Penn St QB situation is bad. Like, really really bad. New Miami coach Al Golden left the cupboard pretty full for Steve Addazio (who was the offensive coordinator at Florida under Urban Meyer) and Temple has its best team in years. The last time Temple beat Penn State, I Love Lucy was 9 years away from its inaugural episode, Joe Paterno wasn't allowed to drive a car, and there was no such thing as Israel. Needless to say, it's been a while. Temple is due for a win.

BYU -4 vs Utah
This is a simple "I think team X is undervalued" bet. BYU installed a pro-style offense in the offseason and is returning 10 starters on offense. I plan to bet BYU until they do not cover (and probably past that as well, get used to seeing them here). They have played 2 very difficult road games at Ole Miss and Texas and have come out of them at 1-1 with both games being decided by a point. Utah is a nice football team, but they're not in the same class as anyone from the SEC or the state of Texas (with the exception of Texas Tech, are they still playing football down there?).


LSU -3.5 @ Mississippi St
Mississippi St has put up a lot of points this year against some bad defenses. They scored 59 against Memphis who just fired their defensive coordinator and 34 against an Auburn team that is incorporating 7 new starters into their defense. LSU might have the best defense in the country (although, that will be decided on November 5th when LSU travels to Tuscaloosa to face Alabama). The half point scares me a bit but LSU is too good of a team to pass up 3.5 at this point.

Arizona St +1.5 @ Illinois
Remember my piece of advice about the Big 10 earlier? That's the second biggest reason I'm making this bet. The first? That would be 6'8" Arizona State QB Brock Osweiler. Get to know him. If he chooses to come out this year he will undoubtedly be a first round pick. How do I know this? Because Christian Ponder went 12th overall last year. And Christian Ponder sucks...And Osweiler is 6'8"...And he can run...And he has a cannon...And he has a compact deliv...you know what, just watch one game. You'll see it. Get on the bandwagon early kids, this guy is gonna be huge.

UCLA +3.5 vs Texas
Here's some more sage advice: any time a team uses 3 quarterbacks by the midway point of the 2nd quarter without any of them getting injured, bet against that team whenever you can. Last week at home vs BYU, Texas started 2010 National Championship near-hero Garrett Gilbert before turning to David Ash who promptly lasted one series before Mack "I only know how to recruit" Brown turned to Case McCoy. The only concern I have about this game is the possibility that Rick Neuheisel bet Texas to hedge against his inevitable firing if UCLA doesn't make some noise this year.

Auburn +3 @ Clemson
I feel a bit like a fish for buying the public team (for those who are unfamiliar with gambling, a "public team" is a team that the public overwhelmingly bets on simply because of name recognition. You can probably guess who they are in each sport: Yanks, Sox, Lakers, Packers, Cowboys, etc...) but at the same time, how often do you get to take points with an SEC team playing someone from the ACC not named Florida State or Virginia Tech?

Last week: 7-2-1
Season: 8-3-3